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Why Capital Flows Are the Only Real Guide to Market Trends

October 2, 2018

Why Capital Flows Are the Only Real Guide to Market Trends

QUESTION: Hello Martin

I wish all the best for you. The work you make every day to rise up our understanding about the world is amazing and make me feel a huge respect. it is very inspiring. I’m a small customer of your private blog. I don’t know if you answer that kind of request.

I want and I need to understand WHY the dxy was in bull market between march 2000 and feb 2002, from 102 to 113.

you are unbelievable when times come to understand economic history. I can’t find any explanation about this period
M2 supply decreased softly the twin deficit stood around 2% with no hope of getting better and it reversed after 2002 to 8% !!!

Interest rates were declining stock indexes were very bear from the tech turnmoil

Gold was bottoming from 420 to 380 with a reverse pattern during summer 2001. the dxy rise more than 3% after the bottom of gold in 1 year !
how could this DXY get up 10% higher in 2 years ??? what is the secret of history I miss ???? I believe there is something to learn with that period !
kind regards

CD

ANSWER: While the Euro began really in 1999, the physical notes did not come into circulation until 2000. The euro hit its all-time high shortly after its launch at the start of 1999 at that point in history which marked the euphoria of the talking heads on TV and how the Euro would crush the dollar. As always, they talked everyone into buying the high. As we say, buy the rumor and sell the news. That is an INCREDIBLY good market rule.

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