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This is Part 1 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This author has developed world energy annual reports that have been posted at Peak Oil Barrel since 2014. The purpose of this Annual Report is to provide updated analysis of the current development of world energy production and consumption, consider possible scenarios of world energy supply over the 21st century, and evaluate their implications for global economic growth and climate change. This year’s Annual Report includes multiple parts:

Part 1 World Energy 2018-2050
Part 2 World Oil 2018-2050
Part 3 World Natural Gas 2018-2050
Part 4 World Coal 2018-2050
Part 5 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Climate Change 2018-2100

Part 1 summarizes the general findings of this year’s World Energy Annual Report. Given the currently available information, world oil production is projected to peak in the early 2020s, world natural gas production is projected to peak in the 2030s, and world coal production is projected to peak in the late 2020s. Wind and solar power is projected to grow rapidly and account for about one-third of the world energy supply by the mid-21st century. Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energies, global energy supply and economic growth are expected to decelerate over the coming decades. By the mid-21st century, the energy-constrained global economic growth rates may not be sufficient to ensure economic and political stability for the existing world system. Although world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to peak before 2030, cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century will be sufficient to result in global warming by more than two degrees Celsius relative to the pre-industrial time (assuming there will be no large-scale carbon sequestration programs).

Part 2 through Part 5 of this year’s World Energy Annual Report will be posted at Peak Oil Barrel in the coming months. Figures and tables are placed at the end of each section.

World Energy 2017

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

In-depth: BP’s global data for 2017 shows record highs for coal and renewables

June 17, 2018

Yosu Gas ship on Huangpu river before the skyline of Pudong, Shanghai, China.

Yosu Gas ship on Huangpu river before the skyline of Pudong, Shanghai, China. Credit: Stephane ROUSSEL / Alamy Stock Photo.

In-depth: BP’s global data for 2017 shows record highs for coal and renewables

Renewable energy grew by the largest amount ever last year, while coal-fired electricity also reached a record high, according to new global data from oil giant BP.

However, set against continued rapid rises in energy demand fuelled by oil and gas, renewables were not enough to prevent global CO2 emissions rising significantly for the first time in four years, the figures show.

This was partly because cyclical economic changes had flattered progress in previous years and, last year, cancelled out some of the slow, continuing shift towards a lower-carbon energy, BP says.

Still, the goals of the Paris Agreement look as far away as ever in the wake of these latest figures, given emissions must, ultimately, reach net-zero by mid-century to avoid dangerous warming.

Carbon Brief runs through the 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, which, for the first time, covers all sources of electricity and the key materials needed for electric vehicles.

Another renewables record

Wind, solar and other non-hydro renewable energy sources grew by 69m tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2017. This was their largest-ever increase, breaking last year’s record of 53Mtoe. Renewables were also the fastest-growing source of energy last year, up 17%.

Nevertheless, all low-carbon sources together met just a third of the 253Mtoe (2.2%) increase in global energy demand in 2017. Fossil fuels met the remaining two thirds, with gas (+83Mtoe, 3.0%) the single-largest source of new energy supply last year.

Changes in the sources of global energy supply between 2016 and 2017, millions of tonnes of oil equivalent. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 and Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 5 Most Popular Energy Stories Of 2017

January 5, 2018

The 5 Most Popular Energy Stories Of 2017

The year in which WTI went from barely above $50 to over $60 a barrel and Brent hit OPEC’s much sought after $65 was full of the usual mix of price forecasts, warnings, and unpredictable events that left readers wondering what will happen next…

Here are five of Oilprice.com’s most popular stories from 2017 as we look back on an eventful year.

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started

Now in its second year, the OPEC/Russia oil production cut pact was the number-one headline maker of 2017. After the initial praise—and price spike—doubts began to emerge that the deal might not work as there was a strong likelihood that some members may cheat. Very soon, other doubts overshadowed these: U.S. shale production was growing, and it was growing fast.

Despite OPEC publicly dismissing shale production growth as hype, by the end of the year it was crystal clear that if there was anything threatening the success of the pact, it was U.S. shale. This threat still looms, even though the U.S. shale industry has been warned that it would be wise to slow down the pace of its rig count growth. Ultimately though, it will be the three years of record-low exploration investment that tightens markets rather than this battle.

The Next Big U.S. Shale Play

This may come as a surprise to readers, as the Permian occupied the spotlight for most of the year, but the June drilling productivity report by the EIA revealed that the Powder River Basin could challenge the Permian’s star status. Shale dominated headlines in 2017, so anything about shale, be it problems or achievements, was top news.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2017 Year In Review

December 27, 2017

Tortoon/Shutterstock

2017 Year In Review

Markets fiddle while Rome burns

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year’s is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It’s quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. A downloadable pdf of the full article is available here, for those who prefer to do their power-reading offline. — cheers, Adam

Introduction

“He is funnier than you are.”

~David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, on Dave Barry’s Year in Review

Every December, I write a survey trying to capture the year’s prevailing themes. I appear to have stiff competition—the likes of Dave Barry on one extreme¹ and on the other, Pornhub’s marvelous annual climax that probes deeply personal preferences in the world’s favorite pastime.² (I know when I’m licked.) My efforts began as a few paragraphs discussing the markets on Doug Noland’s bear chat board and monotonically expanded to a tome covering the orb we call Earth. It posts at Peak Prosperity, reposts at ZeroHedge, and then fans out from there. Bearishness and right-leaning libertarianism shine through as I spelunk the Internet for human folly to couch in snarky prose while trying to avoid the “expensive laugh” (too much setup).³ I rely on quotes to let others do the intellectual heavy lifting.

“Consider adding more of your own thinking and judgment to the mix . . . most folks are familiar with general facts but are unable to process them into a coherent and actionable framework.”

~Tony Deden, founder of Edelweiss Holdings, on his second read through my 2016 Year in Review

“Just the facts, ma’am.”

~Joe Friday

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2017: Carbon Brief’s end-of-year review

December 23, 2017

2017: Carbon Brief’s end-of-year review

As the year draws to a close, Carbon Brief takes a look at 2017’s top climate and energy stories through the medium of numbers…

49 countries

For CO2 emissions to fall, they first have to peak. And research published this year suggests that this is already happening.

The report, produced by the US-based World Resources Institute (WRI), suggests that 49 countries – which include the UK, US, Australia, Brazil and Canada – have seen their emissions peak, representing around 36% of current global emissions.

Carbon Brief created an interactive chart of WRI’s data as part of our coverage.

But how much time does the world collectively have left to reduce its emissions in order to avoid dangerous climate change?

At the beginning of the year, Carbon Brief published our traditional carbon budget update, revealing that just four years of current CO2 emissions would blow what’s left of the budget for a good chance of keeping global temperature rise to 1.5C.

However, in September, a new study published in Nature Geoscience proposed that there might be a little more breathing space to meet the 1.5C limit than previously thought.

As lead author Dr Richard Millar explained in a guest post, the study estimates the remaining 1.5C carbon budget from today onwards. This contrasts to previous methods which have been based on cumulative emissions to date. As a result, Millar’s study put the remaining 1.5C budget at around 20 years of current emissions.

The paper caused quite a stir, with parts of the media claiming that climate models – the basis for carbon budget estimates – are “wrong” and have overstated the observed warming of the planet.

Carbon Brief factchecked these claims, showing that the model-observation comparisons in the study depend greatly on the dataset and model outputs used by the authors.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2017 Year in Review–James Howard Kunstler

December 22, 2017

2017 Year in Review

2017 was the kind of year when no amount of showers could wash off the feeling of existential yeccchhhhh that crept over you day after day like jungle rot. You needed to go through the carwash without your car… or maybe an acid bath would get the stink off. Cinematically, if 2016 was like The Eggplant That Ate Chicago, then 2017 was more like Alfred Hitchcock’s Psycho, a gruesome glimpse into the twisted soul of America. And by that I do not mean simply our dear leader, the Golden Golem of Greatness. We’re all in this horror show together.

2017 kicked off with the report by “seventeen intelligence agencies” — did you know there were so many professional snoops and busybodies on the US payroll? — declaring that Russia, and Vladimir Putin personally, tried to influence the 2016 presidential election. “Meddling” and “collusion” became the watch-words of the year: but what exactly did they mean? Buying $100,000 worth of Google ads in a campaign that the two parties spent billions on? No doubt the “seventeen intelligence agencies” the US pays for were not alert to these shenanigans until the damage was done. Since then it’s been Russia-Russia-Russia 24/7 on the news wires. A few pleas bargains have been made to lever-up the action. When and if the Special Prosecutor, Mr. Mueller, pounces, I expect the GGG to fire him, pardon some of the plea-bargained culprits (if that’s what they were and not just patsies), and incite a constitutional crisis. Won’t that be fun?

Anyway, that set the tone for the inauguration of the Golden Golem, a ghastly adversarial spectacle. Never in my memory, going back to JFK in 1960, was there such a bad vibe at this solemn transfer of power as with the sight of all those Deep State dignitaries gathering gloomily on the Capitol portico to witness the unthinkable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Review Of The Most Disturbing Events Of 2017

December 20, 2017

A Review Of The Most Disturbing Events Of 2017

With events like the British vote to leave the EU, the peak of the mass Muslim immigration into Europe, the “surprise” (for some people) upset win of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election and the subsequent leftist riots, it may be difficult to top the absolute geopolitical and social mayhem of 2016. However, when examining recent history and ongoing trends, it’s important to understand that these shifts are often cumulative; they tend to build upon each other like sheets of ice on a mountainside, storing up energy for a great avalanche.

We witnessed what I would consider a moderate build up and “avalanche” in the economic world in 2008, and of course this merely set the stage for an evolving form of fiscal collapse for the ten years that followed. This time around though, that ongoing collapse will surface in the form of currency crisis and treasury bond crisis, as well as all the international tensions and conflicts that come with these financial atom bombs. If I was to define the year of 2017 and its place in the grand scheme, I would say it represents the moment that the path became obvious for the next decade, at least for those that have been paying attention.

There have been some incredible revelations this year, things that will change the face of global economics and international relations, but most them have gone unnoticed in the mainstream overall. Here are just a few of the earth shattering events that will lead to unprecedented instability in 2018, probably through to the year 2030.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Mystery Investor Has Made A 262 Million Dollar Bet That The Stock Market Will Crash By October

July 24, 2017

A Mystery Investor Has Made A 262 Million Dollar Bet That The Stock Market Will Crash By October

One mystery trader has made an extremely large bet that the stock market is going to crash by October, and if he is right he could potentially make up to 262 million dollars on the deal. Fortunes were made and lost during the great financial crisis of 2008, and the same thing will happen again the next time we see a major stock market crash. But will that stock market crash take place before 2017 is over? Without a doubt, we are in the midst of one of the largest stock market bubbles in U.S. history, and many prominent investors are loudly warning of an imminent stock market collapse. It doesn’t take a genius to see that this stock market bubble is going to end very badly just like all of the other stock market bubbles throughout history have, but if you could know the precise timing that it will end you could set yourself up financially for the rest of your life.

I want to be very clear about the fact that I do not know what will or will not happen by the end of October. But one mystery investor is extremely convinced that market volatility is going to increase over the next few months, and if he is correct he will make an astounding amount of money. According to Business Insider, the following is how the trade was set up…

To fund it, the investor sold 262,000 VIX puts expiring in October, with a strike price of 12.
The trader then used those proceeds to buy a VIX 1×2 call spread, which involves buying 262,000 October contracts with a strike price of 15 and selling 524,000 October contracts with a strike price of 25.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Future – Putting it All Together

March 12, 2017

The Future – Putting it All Together

This is the year of political hell. The question is not about supporting one side or the other. This is a time that calls for us not to be small petty creatures but a case that requires rational human beings, which seems to be more impossible with each passing day. Never did there arise a period that has witnessed any generation devolve into such agitations in political views surrounded by every considerable danger to our way of life and the survival of our government structure. The imprisoned winds of the Romans symbolized by keeping the doors to their Temple of Janus closed during peace and opened during war have indeed been let loose, but this is predominantly for civil war.

CONFIDENCE rules everything. It is critical upon what society believes. With all the turmoil in politics, even with the Congress in the hands of the Republicans, they still lack the votes for major reform. Then there is the rise of the left hell bent upon bringing down Trump at all costs to preserve the elite and status quo. The majority are generally fools. They actually believe the words of politicians to their doom.

Nevertheless, it is the unsettling disturbance within politics that reflects the crumbling level of CONFIDENCE. With that, all bets are off. Capital becomes confused. Looking at the Euro, the turmoil politically in Europe one would look to sell the Euro and buy dollars. Then we turn and look at the United States and all we see is incredible infighting and a battle waged by the left to prevent any populist reforms whatsoever. We hear politicians and the press demeaning the rise of “populism” as if the people are just fools who are clueless and do not really know what they are demanding.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2016 Debt Binge Produces (Surprise!) 2017 Inflation. Guess What That Means For 2018?

March 12, 2017

2016 Debt Binge Produces (Surprise!) 2017 Inflation. Guess What That Means For 2018?

Just as everyone was finally accepting the idea of deflation and negative interest rates, inflation decides to pay a return visit. In the past day, articles with the following headlines appeared in major publications around the world:

Swiss inflation rises at highest monthly rate in 5 years

China February producer inflation fastest in nearly nine years

Year-over-year import prices at highest level in five years

ECB keeps bond-buying, rates unchanged amid inflation flare-up

Food inflation doubles in a month as UK shoppers start to feel the pinch

What happened? Well, towards the end of 2015 most of the world’s major governments apparently got spooked by deflation and decided to ramp up their borrowing and money creation. China, for instance, generated the following stats in 2016:

New loans totaling 12.65 trillion yuan, or $1.8 trillion.
M2 money supply growth of 11%.
Debt-to-GDP ratio jump from 254% to 277%.

In Europe, the European Central Bank ramped up its bond buying program, pumping about a trillion newly-created euros into the Continental economy:

And the US increased its federal government debt by over $1 trillion, presumably spending the proceeds on things that raise wages or increase the demand for commodities.

Since there’s no way for the growth of global production to match this blistering pace of new money creation, the result is higher prices for just about everything. Oil and most other industrial materials are more expensive, wages are rising, long-term interest rates (the cost of money) are up; you name it, it went up in the past year.

What comes after a debt-driven spike in inflation? History is pretty clear on this one: instability, as rising interest rates spook the fixed income markets and rising business costs spook stock speculators.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Region Of The World Is Being Hit By The Worst Economic Collapse It Has Ever Experienced

March 9, 2017

This Region Of The World Is Being Hit By The Worst Economic Collapse It Has Ever Experienced

The ninth largest economy in the entire world is currently experiencing “its longest and deepest recession in recorded history”, and in a country right next door people are being encouraged to label their trash so that the thousands upon thousands of desperately hungry people that are digging through trash bins on the streets can find discarded food more easily. Of course the two nations that I am talking about are Brazil and Venezuela. The Brazilian economy was once the seventh largest on the globe, but after shrinking for eight consecutive quarters it has now fallen to ninth place. And in Venezuela the economic collapse has gotten so bad that more than 70 percent of the population lost weight last year due to a severe lack of food. Most of us living in the northern hemisphere don’t think that anything like this could happen to us any time soon, but the truth is that trouble signs are already starting to erupt all around us. It is just a matter of time before the things currently happening in Brazil and Venezuela start happening here, but unfortunately most people are not heeding the warnings.

Just a few years ago, the Brazilian economy was absolutely roaring and it was being hailed as a model for the rest of the world to follow. But now Brazil’s GDP has been imploding for two years in a row, and this downturn is being described as “the worst recession in recorded history” for that South American nation…

Latin America’s largest economy Brazil has contracted by 3.6 percent in 2016, shrinking for the second year in a row; statistics agency IBGE said on Tuesday. It confirmed the country is facing its longest and deepest recession in recorded history.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Virtually Everyone Agrees That Current Stock Market Valuations Are Not Sustainable And That A Great Crash Is Coming

February 23, 2017

Virtually Everyone Agrees That Current Stock Market Valuations Are Not Sustainable And That A Great Crash Is Coming

Current stock market valuations are not sustainable. If there is one thing that I want you to remember from this article, it is that cold, hard fact. In 1929, 2000 and 2008, stock prices soared to absolutely absurd levels just before horrible stock market crashes. What goes up must eventually come down, and the stock market bubble of today will be no exception. In fact, virtually everyone in the financial community acknowledges that stock prices are irrationally high right now. Some are suggesting that there is still time to jump in and make money before the crash comes, while others are recommending a much more cautious approach. But what almost everyone agrees on is the fact that stocks cannot go up like this forever.

On Tuesday, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all set brand new record highs once again. Overall, U.S. stocks are now up more than 10 percent since the election, and this is probably the greatest post-election stock market rally in our entire history.

But stocks were already tremendously overvalued before the election, and at this point stock prices have reached a level of ridiculousness only matched a couple of times before in the past 100 years.

Only the most extreme optimists will try to tell you that stock prices can stay this disconnected from economic reality indefinitely. We are in the midst of one of the most outrageous stock market bubbles of all time, and as MarketWatch has noted, all stock market bubbles eventually burst…

The U.S. stock market at this level reflects a combination of great demand, great complacency, and great greed. Stocks are clearly in a bubble, and like all bubbles, this one is about to burst.

If corporations were making tremendous amounts of money, rapidly rising stock prices would make logical sense.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning

February 9, 2017

Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning

Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession? According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning. And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one. Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.

One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours. When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now. In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008…

In addition to the decline in hours, Summers has suggested that there are a number of other reasons to believe that a new recession is here…

The fact is that the GDP growth of 4%-5% is not just around the corner. The US most likely slid into recession in the last three months. GDP growth collapsed in 4Q16, with a large portion of the “growth” coming from accounting gimmicks.

Consider the following:

Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.

Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.

Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).

UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.

To me, even more alarming is the tightening of lending standards. In our debt-based economy, the flow of credit is absolutely critical to economic growth, and when credit starts to get tight that almost always leads to a recession.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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