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Tag Archives: oil production
Will US Shale Boom Continue Or Have A Hiatus?
Will US Shale Boom Continue Or Have A Hiatus? The conventional wisdom recently has been that North America will keep producing shale oil for some time despite the higher costs associated with hydraulic fracturing and the 50 percent drop in oil prices over the past eight months. The thing about conventional wisdom is that it […]
The Easy Oil Is Gone So Where Do We Look Now?
The Easy Oil Is Gone So Where Do We Look Now? In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel. […]
The Rig Count “Meme” (And Why The Bounce In WTI Is Likely Over)
The Rig Count “Meme” (And Why The Bounce In WTI Is Likely Over) Recently, the Baker Hughes Rig Count has become all the rage. I did a search on Bloomberg, using only Bloomberg generated articles, with “Rig” and “Count” as matches in the headline only. Back in October, there were barely any articles at all. The […]
Is Oil Returning to $100 Or Dropping To $10?
Is Oil Returning to $100 Or Dropping To $10? If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you’re a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, […]
What is Saudi Arabia not telling us about its oil future?
What is Saudi Arabia not telling us about its oil future? It is popular these days to speculate about why Saudi Arabia cajoled its OPEC allies into maintaining oil production in the face of flagging world demand. As the price the world pays for oil and oil products has plummeted, the price OPEC members are […]
If Oil Prices Are Surprising, Then That Can Only Mean Demand
If Oil Prices Are Surprising, Then That Can Only Mean Demand Crude oil futures have been quite volatile of late, particularly in the front months where even the slightest changes in expectations of whatever factor (rig counts, CEO comments, etc.) send WTI surging or tumbling by turn. Despite that, however, the outer years on the […]
OPEC Production Cut May Not Be Needed After All
OPEC Production Cut May Not Be Needed After All U.S. tight oil production may fall 600,000 barrels per day by June 2015 based on reasonable projections of current rig counts. I compared the decrease in rig counts that began in late 2014 to the rig count decrease in 2008 and 2009 following the Financial Crisis. […]
The Chilling Thing Devon Energy Just Said About the US Oil Glut
The Chilling Thing Devon Energy Just Said About the US Oil Glut The oil-price plunge hit the industry when it was drunk on its own exuberance and awash in money. At the time, over-indebted junk-rated drillers had no trouble borrowing even more to drill more, efficiently or not. Dreadful IPOs flew off the shelf. Misbegotten […]
What On Earth Are We Doing Looking For Oil In The Arctic?
What On Earth Are We Doing Looking For Oil In The Arctic? Shell is back in; Statoil is pensive, but eager; and Russia is pushing ahead. Low prices have stunted exploration, but the Arctic is still a hotbed (read: marginally warm-bed) of activity. With so much to lose in the fragile and costly environment, why are we there? […]
Shale sub-prime and the Ides of March
Shale sub-prime and the Ides of March “Sub-prime” is the term by which became known the debt market segment that served low quality housing in the US. Essentially these were products supporting mortgages to low-middle class families, that in 2006/07, up against the simultaneous rise in interest rates and commodities prices, produced a wave of […]
Russia’s Complicated Relationship With OPEC
Russia’s Complicated Relationship With OPEC Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are the world’s most important oil producers. While there has been a lot of discussion about Saudi Arabia’s move to crush U.S. shale by flooding international markets with oil, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia is much less understood. Saudi Arabia and […]
Goldman Warns “Don’t Count On Rig Declines To Balance The Oil Market Just Yet”
Goldman Warns “Don’t Count On Rig Declines To Balance The Oil Market Just Yet” With WTI back under $50 once again (the mainstream media’s new Maginot Line for oil complex stability – just like $80, $70, and $60 was), it appears more investors are waking up to the reality of an over-supplied, under-demanded global energy […]
OPEC Production Figures – Winners And Losers Aplenty
OPEC Production Figures – Winners And Losers Aplenty The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all the OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2015. There were very little revisions in the December numbers this month. Total OPEC production of crude only was down 53,000 barrels per day in January to 30,153,000 barrels per […]
Wall Street Has a Dream About the Price of Oil
Wall Street Has a Dream About the Price of Oil The price of oil has bounced 20% since January 29 when the benchmark West Texas Intermediate had dipped below $44 a barrel, but according to Edward Morse, Citigroup’s global head of commodity research, that dizzying bounce is a “head-fake.” Because the fundamentals are still terrible. Oil production […]
The Death Of The Petrodollar Was Finally Noticed
The Death Of The Petrodollar Was Finally Noticed Three months ago, we wrote “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed“, in which we explained in painful detail why far from the simple macroeconomic dogma which immediately prompted the macro tourists to scream that “oil prices dropping are good for US consumers“, the collapse in […]
