Home » Posts tagged 'stock market' (Page 4)

Tag Archives: stock market

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

A Financial Professional’s Perspective

ShedConnect.com

A Financial Professional’s Perspective

What’s the current market volatility signalling?

Given the recent volatile gyrations of the markets, we thought it an opportune time ask a full-time financial advisory firm whom we respect for their take on the current environment.

As most PeakProsperity.com readers are aware, we highly advise investors to work in concert with a professional financial advisor whose strategy takes into account the “Three E” macro risks highlighted in our foundational series, The Crash Course.

If folks experience difficulty finding such a professional, we refer them to Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor: New Harbor Financial. The folks at New Harbor have been mindful of our analysis — as well as that of other experts we admire, such as John Hussman — for over a decade now.

We aked them for their latest evaluation of the current situation in the markets, how they’re positioned right now, and what guidance they’re offering to their clients.

Here’s what they have to say:

Environment

Risk in global stock markets is exceedingly high at the present time in our opinion. Much of the work that we do in evaluating risk levels in the stock market at any given time is derived from valuations, and other key market metrics like stock market breadth, sentiment, and technicals.  Valuations, measured the way that we think they should be, have never been higher. Both the cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by Robert Shiller, and the margin-adjusted CAPE, as developed by John Hussman, are at or near historic extremes.  Valuations cannot be used to precisely time the short-term movements of stock indices, but over the long-term of 5 to 10 years or more, valuations have a very high correlation to actual realized returns over those timeframes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Slow Down Dramatically

11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Slow Down Dramatically

The pace at which things are changing is shocking the experts.  Just a few months ago, many of the experts were still talking about how the U.S. economy was “booming”, but since then a major shift has taken place.  Most of the headlines have been about the huge stock market declines that we have been witnessing, but things have not been going well for the real economy either.  Home sales are way down, auto sales are plummeting, the retail apocalypse is escalating, the middle class continues to shrink and economic optimism is rapidly evaporating.  We haven’t seen anything like this since 2008, and many believe that the economic downturn that is now upon us will ultimately be even worse than what we experienced a decade ago.  The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is starting to slow down dramatically…

#1 When economic activity is rising, demand for oil increases, and oil prices tend to go up.  But when economic activity is slowing down, demand for oil diminishes, and oil prices tend to go down.  That is why what is happening to the price of oil right now is so alarming

US oil prices plummeted 7% to a one-year low of $55.69 a barrel on Tuesday. It was crude’s worst day since September 2015.

The losses in the oil world have been staggering as worries deepen about excess supply. Crude is down 12 straight days, the longest losing streak since futures trading began in March 1983.

#2 One new poll has found that only 13 percent of Americans plan to buy a home in the next year.  That number has fallen for three quarters in a row, and it is now down by almost half over the last twelve months.

#3 As the market dries up, the inventory of unsold homes is absolutely soaringnationwide…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Wasn’t Supposed To Happen…

This Wasn’t Supposed To Happen…

We have definitely deviated from the script.  According to virtually all of the “experts”, the stock market was not supposed to keep plummeting in November.  This was supposed to be the month when the market calmed down and things returned to normal.  But instead, November is starting to look a whole lot like October, and many investors are really starting to freak out.  U.S. stocks declined for a third day in a row on Monday, and all post-election gains have now been completely wiped out.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 602 points, and all of these large daily losses are really starting to add up.  It may still be a bit too early to call this a “major financial crisis”, but if stock prices keep plunging like this it won’t be too long before all hell starts breaking loose on Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs, GE and California utility stocks were some of the biggest losers on Monday, but it was Apple that made the biggest news

Investors grew concerned after Wells Fargo analysts identified Apple as the unnamed customer that optical communications company Lumentum Holdings said was significantly reducing orders. The news sent Apple’s stock down 5 percent for the day. Lumentum shares plunged almost 33 percent.

Shares in other major tech stocks fell. Advanced Micro Devices gave up 9.51 percent, while Nvidia fell 7.84 percent. Micron Technology lost 4.27 percent. Banks and consumer-focused companies, and media and communications stocks also took heavy losses.

All along, tech stocks had been leading the bull market on the way up, but now things have completely shifted.

In recent weeks tech stocks have been absolutely cratering, and several of the biggest names are now officially in bear market territory.  The following summary comes from Wolf Richter

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Stocks Plunge Again And A Former Reagan Administration Official Is Warning Of A “40% Crash”

Global Stocks Plunge Again And A Former Reagan Administration Official Is Warning Of A “40% Crash”

Stocks are falling again, and many believe that this new crisis is only just beginning.  After a disappointing end to last week, a lot of investors were hoping for a bounce to start this week, but so far that has not materialized.  As I write this article, all the big markets in Asia are down, and it looks like it is going be be a rough morning for Wall Street.  Of course we probably won’t see too much movement as global markets wait to see what happens on Tuesday, and those results could potentially move things up or down substantially.  Ultimately, I have a feeling that Wall Street will not be too happy if control of Congress is divided, because that would almost certainly mean that very little will get accomplished in Washington for the next two years.  Instead, we will likely see even more bickering and fighting than we are seeing now.

But no matter what happens in the short-term, a lot of experts are convinced that the big market crash that everyone has been waiting for is finally here.

One of those experts is David Stockman.

Stockman is a former member of Congress, and he was the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.  These days he is a frequent contributor on CNBC, and he recently told the network that there will be “a 40 percent stock market plunge”

David Stockman warns a 40 percent stock market plunge is closing in on Wall Street.

Stockman, who served as President Reagan’s Office of Management and Budget director, has long warned of a deep downturn that would shake Wall Street’s most bullish investors. He believes the early rumblings of that epic downturn is finally here.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Red October”: We Just Witnessed The Worst Month For The S&P 500 In 7 Years

“Red October”: We Just Witnessed The Worst Month For The S&P 500 In 7 Years

This was an October that many of us will never forget.  The month of October is typically the most volatile month of the year for stocks, and that was definitely the case in 2018.  It was the worst month for the S&P 500 in 7 years, and it was the worst month for the Nasdaq in almost 10 years.  But the damage could have been much worse if we had not seen a bounce the last two trading days of the month.  On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 241 points, and investors are hoping that this is a sign that things are starting to settle down a bit.  And hopefully things will be calmer in November, because things were so chaotic in October that the month has already been branded “Red October” by the mainstream media

Wall Street finally bid good riddance to what one professional stock investor dubbed “Red October.”

In a tumultuous month marked by big price swings, rising fear levels and emerging risks, the U.S. stock market suffered its biggest October decline since the 2008 financial crisis, prompting shaken investors to reassess the staying power of a bull run that began more than nine years ago.

When we go back and look at the month as a whole, the damage is breathtaking.

Here is a summary of the carnage that we witnessed…

-October was the worst month for the S&P 500 since September 2011.

-October was the worst month for the Nasdaq since November 2008.

Nearly 2 trillion dollars in U.S. stock market wealth was wiped out.

-Overall, approximately 8 trillion dollars in global stock market wealth was wiped out.

-October was the worst month ever for the “FANG” stocks.

-Facebook was down 7.7 percent.

-Alphabet (the parent company of Google) was down 9.7 percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The ‘Godfather’ Of Market Analysis: ‘Damage Done To The Stock Market Is Much Worse’

The ‘Godfather’ Of Market Analysis: ‘Damage Done To The Stock Market Is Much Worse’

The so-called “Godfather” of market chart analysis said that the damage already done to the stock market is much worse than most people are talking about. Ralph Acampora, a prominent market technician, says the stock market is in bad shape and it’s worse than many Wall Street investors appreciate.

From a technical perspective, the damage that has been done technically to the stock market is much, much worse than people are talking about,he told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Tuesday. Acampora also said that the technical damage that has resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index erasing all of their gains for 2018, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling into correction territory (which is usually characterized as a decline of at least 10% from a recent peak) will take months to repair.

“I’ve been a bull for a long, long time and like everyone, I was waiting for a correction but this is something different,” said Acampora. “All the leadership is getting crushed,” he said. He added that he feels that the entire market will go into bear territory soon.

“Honestly, I don’t see the low being put in yet and I think we’re going to go into a bear market,” he said according to MarketWatch. He speculates that the market may not be healed until around the first quarter of 2019. Acampora said that the current dynamic in the market was eerily similar to the stock-market crash of 1987 when the Dow plunged a historic 22.6% in a single day on October 19 of that year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: The Rising Interest Rates Will Collapse The Stock Market

Peter Schiff: The Rising Interest Rates Will Collapse The Stock Market

Economic guru Peter Schiff is sounding more economic alarms. This time, without mincing words, he says that the Federal Reserve’s raising of the interest rates will cause a stock market collapse.

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff and Steven Quirk, the executive vice president of TD Ameritrade’s trader group discussed the Federal Reserve’s impact on the stock market and whether corporate earnings can help the market make a comeback.According to Fox News, Schiff’s assessment was none too calming. “[The Federal Reserve] should raise rates, but the market is going to collapse as a result,” he told FOX Business’ Liz Claman on Monday.

Schiff also said that investors should expect a long drawn-out bear market with the cost of living rising to dramatic levels. “This bear market is not going to end quickly,” he said.

The latest China-U.S. tariff threats have spooked the markets, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a more than 900-point swing from session highs to lows today. The index clawed back some of its loses in the final hour of trading, closing 245 points lower, or nearly 1 percent, at 24,443. The S&P 500 fell to 2,641, about 0.65 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.6 percent at 7,050.29.

The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has jumped an estimated 87 percent since the close of the market on Sept. 28, 2018. –Fox News

Quirk says that there’s no end to October’s fear in sight, but they aren’t signaling armageddon either. “[Investors] are not optimistically saying this is going to bounce right back, but they are also not saying this is the end of the world,” he said on Countdown to the Closing Bell. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Perfect Storm Is Brewing

A Perfect Storm Is Brewing

Will we someday look back on October 2018 as the turning point?  As the month began, people were generally feeling pretty good about things, and the U.S. stock market quickly set a new all-time high.  But from that point on, the wheels fell off for Wall Street.  We just witnessed the worst October for U.S. stocks since the financial crisis of 2008, and at this point more than 8 trillion dollars of global wealth has been completely wiped out.  But it isn’t just the stock market that is being shaken.  The horrific violence in Pittsburgh is just the latest in a string of events that have rattled the entire nation.  Sometimes I feel like I am literally watching the fabric of our society come apart right in front of my eyes.  It is almost as if there is a tangible presence of evil in the air, and it seems to be getting stronger over time.  For quite a while I have been warning that levels of anger and frustration are rising to unprecedented levels, and all of that anger and frustration is leading people to do things that are absolutely unthinkable.  And if people are this crazed now, how bad are things going to get once the economy really starts unraveling?

Let there be no doubt – if U.S. stocks crash really hard, it will cause a massive credit crunch, and that would absolutely strangle economic activity.

Yes, October was bad, but we can recover from what happened in October.

But if November and December are equally as bad or worse, we could have a nightmarish crisis on our hands very rapidly.  And many experts believe that this market is ultimately going to decline much, much further.

For example, just consider what Wolf Richter is saying

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stock Market Plunges Again – Global Stocks Down 5 Weeks In A Row – 8 Trillion Dollars In Wealth Wiped Out

Stock Market Plunges Again – Global Stocks Down 5 Weeks In A Row – 8 Trillion Dollars In Wealth Wiped Out

It’s not over.  The worst October stock market crash since 2008 got even worse on Friday.  The Dow was down another 296 points, the S&P 500 briefly dipped into correction territory, and it was another bloodbath for tech stocks.  On Wednesday, I warned that there would be a bounce, and we saw that happen on Thursday.  But the bounce didn’t extend into Friday.  Instead, we witnessed another wave of panic selling, and that has many investors extremely concerned about what will happen next week.  Overall, global stocks have now fallen for five weeks in a row, and during that time more than 8 trillion dollars in global wealth has been wiped out.  That is the fastest plunge in global stock market wealth since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and it is yet another confirmation that a major turning point has arrived.

The wild swings up and down that we witnessed this week are very reminiscent of what we saw in 2008.

Markets just don’t go down in a straight line.  In fact, some of the best days in all of Wall Street history happened right in the middle of the last financial crisis.

When markets are very volatile, the overall trend tends to be down.  So what investors should be hoping for are extremely boring days on Wall Street when not much happens.  That has been the usual state of affairs for much of the past decade, but now volatility has returned with a vengeance.  The following is how CNBC summarized the carnage that we witnessed on Friday…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is The Long-Anticipated Crash Now Upon Us?

Shutterstock

Is The Long-Anticipated Crash Now Upon Us?

Is this the market’s breaking point?

I admit: I’m a permabear.

This is no surprise to those who know and have followed me over the years. But I’m publicly proclaiming my ‘bearishness’ because doing so might open up a needed and long overdue dialog.

Here’s my fundamental position:  Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. 

Cutting to the chase, this is why I predict a major crash/collapse across stocks, bonds and real estate is on the way.

The recent market weakness seen over the past two weeks is nothing compared to what’s in store.  As we’ve been carefully chronicling, bubbles burst from ‘the outside in’, starting at the weaker places at the periphery before progressing to the center.

Emerging market equities are now down -26% from their January highs and -18% year-to-date.  China’s stocks market is down -32%, even with substantial intervention by the government to prop things up.

The periphery has been weakening all year, and the contagion has now spead worldwide.

Taken as a whole, global equities have shed some $13 trillion of market capitalization for a -15% decline:

The rot has spread to the core with surprising speed. Now even the formerly bullet-proof US equity markets are stumbling.

The S&P 500 is now negative on the year:

It’s been obvious for a long time to those who have watched The Crash Course that endless growth is simply not possible. Not for a bacteria colony in a petrie dish, not for an economy, not for any species on the planet. Eventually, when finite resources are involved, limits matter.

But the vast majority of society pretends as if this isn’t true.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: The Dollar And American Standard Of Living Will Be ‘Biggest Casualties’

Peter Schiff: The Dollar And American Standard Of Living Will Be ‘Biggest Casualties’

The United States economy is about to crash and it will take the dollar and the American standard of living with it. Peter Schiff, who currently serves as the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, says it is time to prepare for the global market crash in light of the recent downturn.

All the signs are already there. Look at what’s happening out there. The stock market is falling, 40 percent of the S&P is already in a bear market. Look at homebuilders, the housing stocks, the financials, the retailers – all these are the same things that were happening in 2007 leading to that crisis, Schiff, who accurately predicted the 2008 recession, told RT America.  We don’t have much time left in this economic bubble if Schiff is correct.

After the dramatic early drop, U.S. stocks recovered but still finished lower after a wild day on Wall Street. By the closing bell, the Dow was down 126 points, or 0.5 percent, recovering most of its early losses. The Nasdaq closed down 0.4 percent, while the S&P 500 shed 15 points, finishing 0.6 percent lower. Schiff urged people to be prepared for not only an economic crisis but a political crisis as well with the current administration likely to take the blame.

According to Schiff, the US national currency is set to meet with the worst losses along with the American standard of living. Although the Trump administration is to blame for the trade war that is already wreaking havoc on American’s wallets, Schiff says the political crisis about to follow will be much worse.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stock Market Crash! The Dow Has Now Plunged 2,368 Points From The Peak Of The Market

Stock Market Crash! The Dow Has Now Plunged 2,368 Points From The Peak Of The Market

The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage decline for the Nasdaq almost doubled the Dow’s stunning plunge on Wednesday, and it has now officially entered correction territory.  To say that it was a “bloodbath” for tech stocks on Wednesday would be a major understatement.  Several big name tech stocks were in free fall mode as panic swept through the marketplace like wildfire.  As I noted the other day, October 2018 looks a whole lot like October 2008, and many believe that the worst is yet to come.

But in the short-term we should see some sort of bounce once the current wave of panic selling is exhausted.  During every major stock market crash in our history there have been days when the stock market has absolutely soared, and this crash will not be any exception.

If we do see a bounce on either Thursday or Friday, please don’t assume that the crash is over.  Most key technical levels have already been breached, and even a small piece of bad news can send stocks plunging once again.

On Wednesday there really wasn’t anything too unusual that happened, but stocks cratered anyway.  Here is a summary of the carnage…

-The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 608 points on Wednesday.

-The Dow is now down 7.1 percent for the month of October.

-The S&P 500 has now fallen for 13 of the last 15 trading days.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Teetering On The Brink Of Disaster: 14 Of 19 Bear Market Signals Have Now Been Triggered

Teetering On The Brink Of Disaster: 14 Of 19 Bear Market Signals Have Now Been Triggered

October 2018 is turning out to be a lot like October 2008.  The S&P 500 has now fallen for 12 of the last 14 trading days, and it is on pace for its worst October since the last financial crisis.  But the U.S. is actually in much better shape than the rest of the world at this point.  Even though they have fallen precipitously in recent days, U.S. stocks are still up 3 percent for the year overall.  On the other hand, global stocks (excluding the U.S.) are now down more than 10 percent for the year, and they are down more than 15 percent from the peak of the market in January.  All it is going to take is a couple more really bad trading sessions to push global stocks into bear market territory.

And even though U.S. stocks are still outperforming the rest of the world, many are anticipating that the U.S. is definitely heading for a bear market as well.

According to Bank of America, 14 out of their 19 “bear market indicators” have now been triggered

“Expect a long bout of volatility,” Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report published on Sunday.

Bank of America keeps a running tally of “signposts” that signal looming bear market. The bad news is that 14 of these 19 indicators, or 74%, have been triggered. Two more were toppled earlier this month: the VIX volatility index (VIX) climbed above 20 and a growing number of Americans expect stocks to go up.

Of course not all 19 indicators need to be triggered in order for a bear market to happen.  These indicators are simply signposts, and what they are telling us is that big trouble could be brewing for the financial markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Stock Market Is “Gradually” Rotting Under the Covers

This Stock Market Is “Gradually” Rotting Under the Covers

And some of the rot is oozing to the surface.

The sell-off on Tuesday didn’t weigh on the scale of sell-offs: The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq were down only around 0.5%, give or take a little. But in the broader sense, declines of individual stocks were widespread, and this situation has been going on for months.

On the surface, it still looks hunky-dory. For the 52-week period, the Dow is up 7.5%, the S&P 500 is up 6.7%, and the Nasdaq is up 12.7%.

Yet, even as major indices rose so nicely over the 52-week period, 1,256 individual stocks of those on the New York Stock Exchange dropped to new 52-week lows today, while only 21 reached 52-week highs. How many stocks are listed or traded on the NYSE depends on who you ask. The WSJ data section shows 2,080; others go just over 2,400. If there are 2,080 stocks actively traded on the NYSE, this means 60% hit new 52-week lows today.

And according to my own math, 176 stocks on the NYSE have by now plunged at least 50% from their 52-week highs.

Despite the small drop on Tuesday of the major indices, here is what a random page in alphabetical order of the NYSE listings looks like in terms of red for the day – there is a lot of it, and it doesn’t even include Caterpillar, which dropped 7.6%:

In terms of the S&P 500 – which tracks the largest stocks in their industries, regardless of what exchanges they trade on – a whopping 353 stocks are down at least 10% from their 52-week highs, and 179 of them (that’s over a quarter) have dropped by at least 20%.

Why are the overall indices not down more? Well, Apple is a big reason.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Banking Stocks Are Crashing Hard – Just Like They Did In 2008

Global Banking Stocks Are Crashing Hard – Just Like They Did In 2008

Global stocks are falling precipitously once again, and banking stocks are leading the way.  If this reminds you of 2008, it should, because that is precisely what we witnessed back then.  Banking stocks collapsed as fear gripped the marketplace, and ultimately many large global banks had to be bailed out either directly or indirectly by their national governments as they failed one after another.  The health of the banking system is absolutely paramount, because the flow of money is our economic lifeblood.  When the flow of money tightens up during a credit crunch, the consequences can be rapid and dramatic just like we witnessed in 2008.

So let’s keep a very close eye on banking stocks.  Global systemically important bank stocks surged in the aftermath of Trump’s victory in 2016, but now they are absolutely plunging.  They are now down a whopping 27 percent from the peak, and that puts them solidly in bear market territory.

U.S. banking stocks are not officially in bear market territory yet, but they are getting close.  At this point, they are now down 17 percent from the peak…

Monday early afternoon, the US KBW Bank index, which tracks large US banks and serves as a benchmark for the banking sector, is down 2.5% at the moment. It has dropped 17% from its post-Financial Crisis high on January 29.

Of course European banking stocks are doing much worse.  Right now they are down 27 percent from the peak and 23 percent from a year ago.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

But unlike their American brethren, the European banks have remained stuck in the miserable Financial Crisis mire – a financial crisis that in Europe was followed by the Euro Debt Crisis. The Stoxx 600 bank index, which covers major European banks, including our hero Deutsche Bank, has plunged 27% since February 29, 2018, and is down 23% from a year ago

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress