I admit: I’m a permabear.
This is no surprise to those who know and have followed me over the years. But I’m publicly proclaiming my ‘bearishness’ because doing so might open up a needed and long overdue dialog.
Here’s my fundamental position: Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible.
Cutting to the chase, this is why I predict a major crash/collapse across stocks, bonds and real estate is on the way.
The recent market weakness seen over the past two weeks is nothing compared to what’s in store. As we’ve been carefully chronicling, bubbles burst from ‘the outside in’, starting at the weaker places at the periphery before progressing to the center.
Emerging market equities are now down -26% from their January highs and -18% year-to-date. China’s stocks market is down -32%, even with substantial intervention by the government to prop things up.
The periphery has been weakening all year, and the contagion has now spead worldwide.
Taken as a whole, global equities have shed some $13 trillion of market capitalization for a -15% decline:
The rot has spread to the core with surprising speed. Now even the formerly bullet-proof US equity markets are stumbling.
The S&P 500 is now negative on the year:
It’s been obvious for a long time to those who have watched The Crash Course that endless growth is simply not possible. Not for a bacteria colony in a petrie dish, not for an economy, not for any species on the planet. Eventually, when finite resources are involved, limits matter.
But the vast majority of society pretends as if this isn’t true.
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