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OPEC Update

OPEC Update All charts are updated through March 2016 The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out out. The charts are “Crude Only”production and do not reflect condensate production. Also the charts, except for Libya, are not zero based. I chose to amplify the change rather than the total. OPEC is now 13 nations with the the […]

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Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead

Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead Wednesday, 20 April 2016 02:11 Brandon Smith Most people are not avid followers of economic news, and I don’t blame them. Financial analysis is for the most part boring and tedious and you would have to be some kind of crazy to commit a large slice […]

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A Personal Appreciation of M. King Hubbert

A Personal Appreciation of M. King Hubbert A recent vacation afforded me the opportunity to read The Oracle of Oil, Mason Inman’s excellent new biography of Marion King Hubbert. I strongly recommend it. But, rather than writing a standard book review (which might cover much of the same ground as this one by Frank Kaminski), I’m inspired instead […]

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US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices

US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices Oil production can be confusing because there are various “pieces” that may or may not be included. In this analysis, I look at oil production of the United States broadly (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels), because this is the way oil consumption is defined. I […]

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U.S. Oil Supply To Fall Faster Than Expected

U.S. Oil Supply To Fall Faster Than Expected Key package of statistics released on U.S. oil and gas activity this week, from the national Bureau of Land Management (BLM). And one number in particular stood out. Showing how drilling activity in key U.S. plays is declining at an unprecedented pace. That figure is the number […]

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Peak Oil: Time To Get Serious Pt 1

Peak Oil: Time To Get Serious Pt 1 The truths, unpleasant though they may be, are the truths: inexpensive, readily available oil is slowly but surely becoming less readily available, more expensive, and harder to come by. Current conditions [ultra-low prices; curtailed/canceled oil production and exploration projects; over-supply; declining investments; high debt] only highlight that […]

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World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate

World Crude plus Condensate Decline Rate There is concern that World C+C may decline steeply after the peak, I believe those concerns are over blown. There is always the possibility that there could be a severe recession due to high debt levels, high oil prices or potentially due to both problems in combination. War and […]

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Are The Saudis And Russians Deliberately Sabotaging Doha?

Are The Saudis And Russians Deliberately Sabotaging Doha? The actions and intentions of Saudi Arabia and Russia—the two largest oil-producing nations attending the Doha meeting on 17 April—have dashed all hopes of any fruitful outcome. The most important meeting of the last three decades, which has promised to forge new friendships and a new cartel, […]

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Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016

Oil Production Vital Statistics March 2016 Since the possible double bottom at $26 formed on February 11th the oil price has staged a rally to $40 (WTI). Traders lucky enough to buy at $26 and sell at $40 have pocketed a tidy 54% profit. Very few will have been this lucky. The trade was stimulated […]

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The Year the Oil Bubble Burst

The Year the Oil Bubble Burst As companies are forced to slash value of reserves, industry faces a grim new future. The days of artificially inflated oil prices might be over forever. Teardrop image via Shutterstock. Are we witnessing the beginning of the end for the oil industry? It’s reporting season in the financial world and like […]

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Advantage U.S. In The Global Petroleum Showdown?

Advantage U.S. In The Global Petroleum Showdown? Is the crude stock data in the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Table 1 in the report) a useful tool for judging the prospects for the U.S. petroleum industry— and therefore for the global petroleum industry—or is it misleading? With few interruptions, U.S. crude stocks increased steadily during 2015 and […]

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Saudis Retaliate To “Oil Freeze” Fallout: Ban Transport Of Iranian Crude In Territorial Waters

Saudis Retaliate To “Oil Freeze” Fallout: Ban Transport Of Iranian Crude In Territorial Waters At first, when it announced the terms of its “oil freeze” agreement with Russia one month ago, Saudi Arabia seemed willing to grant Iran a temporary exemption from the supply freeze, at least until it recovers its pre-embargo production levels. That […]

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Iran Oil Minister Rejects Saudi Demand To Freeze Crude Production

Iran Oil Minister Rejects Saudi Demand To Freeze Crude Production In the aftermath of Bloomberg’s surprising Friday report, according to which Saudi Arabia flipflopped on its previous promise that it would freeze its oil output while allowing Iran to grow supply until it hit its pre-embargo peak, instead saying that it would only join the […]

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Saudi Policy Tied to Weak Economy

Saudi Policy Tied to Weak Economy In recent weeks I have read many oil prognosticators theorizing what the ultimate Saudi strategy is, or what their end game might be. To recap, in mid-2014, Saudi Arabia decided to pump more oil into the market that was already starting seeing rising supply. U.S. shale was largely blamed […]

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“Production Freeze” Narrative Collapses In Two Days: Russian Oil Output Hits New Post-Soviet Record

“Production Freeze” Narrative Collapses In Two Days: Russian Oil Output Hits New Post-Soviet Record How quickly the oil production freeze narrative has fallen apart. Source: stockboardasset Indeed, it’s been a tough two days for oil bulls holding on to hope that excess oil production will normalize in the near term and that the world’s oil suppliers […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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