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Tag Archives: monetary policy
Economic Turmoil Could Send Oil Even Lower
Economic Turmoil Could Send Oil Even Lower Global financial markets are once again throwing up some warning signs, as the selloff in equities entirely erased the gains made in U.S. stock markets for 2018. The economic and financial turmoil could bleed over into a broader slowdown, which raises pitfalls for oil prices. The risks to […]
Subprime Rises: Credit Card Delinquencies Blow Through Financial-Crisis Peak at the 4,705 Smaller US Banks
Subprime Rises: Credit Card Delinquencies Blow Through Financial-Crisis Peak at the 4,705 Smaller US Banks So what’s going on here? In the third quarter, the “delinquency rate” on credit-card loan balances at commercial banks other than the largest 100 banks – so the delinquency rate at the 4,705 smaller banks in the US – spiked […]
Does the Market Need a Heimlich Maneuver?
Does the Market Need a Heimlich Maneuver? For all we know, the panic selling is Wall Street’s way of forcing the Fed’s hand: stop with the rates increases already or Mr. Market expires. Markets everywhere are gagging on something: they’re sagging, crashing, imploding, blowing up, dropping and generally exhibiting signs of distress. Does the market […]
The Broken Clocks’ Minute
The Broken Clocks’ Minute Sometimes the reasons you’re wrong turn out to be the reasons you’re right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Old Wall Street adage Anyone who has consistently sounded cautionary or outright bearish notes during the last nine years of relentlessly rising equity markets has been cast aside. Wall […]
The Coming Monetary Crisis
The Coming Monetary Crisis QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you said that next year, interest expenditure will most likely exceed military. Is this how the monetary crisis begins to unfold? WR ANSWER: The entire problem with this Quantitative Easing has been the plain fact that the government is the biggest debtor. This is the same model around […]
Mortgage Rates May Hit 6% Sooner, as Fed Sheds Mortgage-Backed Securities, But What Will that Do to Housing Bubble 2?
Mortgage Rates May Hit 6% Sooner, as Fed Sheds Mortgage-Backed Securities, But What Will that Do to Housing Bubble 2? Mortgage rates are climbing faster than the 10-year Treasury yield. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) and a 20% down-payment rose to 5.17% for the latest […]
US Household Debt Hits Record $13.5 Trillion As Delinquencies Hit 6 Year High
US Household Debt Hits Record $13.5 Trillion As Delinquencies Hit 6 Year High Total household debt hit a new record high, rising by $219 billion (1.6%) to $13.512 trillion in Q3 of 2018, according to the NY Fed’s latest household debt report, the biggest jump since 2016. It was also the 17th consecutive quarter with […]
Inflation Surges In October; Media Blames Gas Prices
Inflation Surges In October; Media Blames Gas Prices A key measurement of inflation, The Consumer Price Index, rose 2.5% in October from a year earlier. The inflation was linked to rising gas prices by the media, but there’s more to it than just the cost of fuel. Rising inflation is actually also likely tied to […]
The Fed Will Continue Tightening Until Everything Breaks
The Fed Will Continue Tightening Until Everything Breaks Around three years ago, in September 2015, I wrote an article titled ‘The Real Reasons Why The Fed Will Hike Interest Rates‘ in which I predicted that the Federal Reserve, in the face of criticism, would soon pursue a program of interest rate hikes into economic weakness. […]
Foundation and Empire
Foundation and Empire Thomas Cole, “The Consummation of Empire” (1836) Every vice of the Empire has been repeated in the Foundation. Inertia! Our ruling class knows one law; no change. Despotism! They know one rule; force. Maldistribution! They know one desire; to hold what is theirs. That quote is the narrative crux of Isaac Asimov’s […]
Anatomy of the Housing Downturn in Vancouver, Canada
Anatomy of the Housing Downturn in Vancouver, Canada It’s not pretty. In 2018, “each month has brought weaker than normal sales, rising inventory, and continued downward pressure on prices” in Vancouver, British Columbia, writes Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver Realtor and publisher of real-estate blog, Vancity Condo Guide. The market faces another headwind: “With the Bank […]
Understanding the Global Recession of 2019
Understanding the Global Recession of 2019 Isn’t it obvious that repeating the policies of 2009 won’t be enough to save the system from a long-delayed reset? 2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial […]
Europe In Panic Mode Over Economy As USA Soars
Europe In Panic Mode Over Economy As USA Soars The eurozone’s economic growth rate has slumped to a four-year low. The eurozone could not borrow from the momentum of the U.S. economy in the third quarter as economic growth slumped to a tepid 0.2%, the slowest rate in more than four years. With the 19-nation […]
Global GDP Still Propped Up By A Massive Amount Of Debt
Global GDP Still Propped Up By A Massive Amount Of Debt While the government agencies and economists continue to publish strong GDP figures, they seem to overlook how much debt it took to produce that growth. Or should I say, the “supposed growth.” The days of adding one dollar of debt to get one dollar […]
A Chinese recession is inevitable – don’t think it won’t affect you
A Chinese recession is inevitable – don’t think it won’t affect you A man sits on a rock near demolished in Xiancun, an urban village in Guangzhou, southern China. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images When China finally has its inevitable growth recession – which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy’s […]
