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Watch: Pelosi Dismantled In Real Time In Masterclass On Populism
Watch: Pelosi Dismantled In Real Time In Masterclass On Populism
Two weeks ago, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was thoroughly savaged during a debate at Oxford University over the question of whether populism is a “threat to democracy.” In case you missed it, read on as it’s making the rounds. If you have 14 minutes to spare, jump right in:
Opening the case for the left was Rachel Haddad, Secretary of the Oxford Union. She argued that populist leaders like Donald Trump and Nigel Farage pose a threat to democracy, and are not a “new generation of geniuses” who can find simple solutions to longstanding, complex problems.
Pelosi closed the debate for the proposition, defining populism as an “ethno-nationalist populism, generated by an ethnic negativity to immigrants, people who are different from them and the rest” (so, ‘they’re racists!’).
Speaking against the motion were Union committee members Sultan Kokhar (Chair of Consultative Committee) and Oscar Whittle (Director of Research), as well as former Mumford & Sons lead guitarist, Winston Marshall – now a podcaster for The Spectator – who got into an exchange with Pelosi during parts of his speech.
Marshall started out by saying:
“Words have a tendency to change meaning when I was a boy, “woman” meant “someone who didn’t have a cock.”
Populism has become a word used synonymously with “racists.” We’ve heard “ethno-nationalist,” with “bigot,” with “hillbilly,” “redneck,” with “deplorables.”
Elites use it to show their contempt for ordinary people.”
He then noted that Barack Obama, while still president, tried to frame he and Bernie Sanders as actual populists vs. Donald Trump, who ‘doesn’t care about working people.’
But then, “If you watch Obama’s speeches after that point, more and more recently, he uses the word “populist” interchangeably with “strong man,” with “authoritarian.” The word changes meaning, it becomes a negative, a pejorative, a slur.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Orange Juice Prices Primed For Breakout After Forecast Warns Brazil Set For Worst Harvest In Decades
Orange Juice Prices Primed For Breakout After Forecast Warns Brazil Set For Worst Harvest In Decades
Breakfast lovers are in for another jolt as orange juice prices surge to near-record levels. A new report released on Friday indicates that Brazil, the leading global exporter of OJ, is facing its worst harvest in over three decades. This alarming development compounds existing issues in Florida’s citrus groves, which have been plagued by disease and are experiencing collapsing production levels to the lowest in decades.
Fundecitrus wrote in a note that Brazil will produce 232.4 million boxes—each weighing about 90 pounds—for the growing season this year. That’s a 24% collapse from a year earlier and the lowest production levels in 36 years.
“Excessive heat brought stress to orange trees during a crucial period of flowering and early fruit formation between September and November last year. Further hurting output is an increase in citrus greening, a disease that causes fruit to prematurely drop from trees,” Bloomberg wrote, commenting on the report.
The report sparked additional fears about a worsening global OJ shortage.
In markets, prices of concentrated OJ futures in New York surged as much as 5% on Friday, closing up about 3% to $394 and only 8% off the record high of $425.
Sliding production in Brazil could soon impact US retail prices at the supermarket, considering Florida has yet to stage a significant comeback in production.
In the last year, the US has ramped up imports of OJ from Brazil to mitigate losses in Florida.
Don’t worry. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has everything under control on the food inflation front, as the prices of OJ, coffee, eggs, and cocoa have hyperinflated.
Watch OJ futs in NY into the new week.
China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here’s What’s In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough
China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here’s What’s In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough
More than four years ago, when China first launched its latest “deleveraging” campaign targeted at bursting the country’s housing bubble in a controlled fashion, which coincidentally was the single largest asset for China’s massive middle class, we – and many others – said that this experiment was doomed and that all China is doing is delaying the inevitable bailout of the property sector with another metric asston of new debt. Well, as the news overnight confirmed, we were right… but not before China saw all of its largest domestic real estate developers collapse, push its housing market into a deflationary tailspin from which the country has not yet recovered, and suffered five years where its economy stagnated and pushed social tension to the edge.
So what happened?
On Friday, Chinese policymakers unveiled a fresh batch of easing measures for the housing market, including:
- clear top-down guidance for local governments to purchase existing housing inventory for public housing provision,
- an RMB300bn relending quota for destocking the housing market,
- reductions in downpayment ratios and mortgage rates,
- more policy support to secure the delivery of pre-sold homes.
Needless to say, local government (which is really just an extension of the central government) purchases of existing housing inventory is for lack of a better word, nationalization, and as Goldman writes in its post-mortem (pdf available to pro subs), if implemented at scale, can help stabilize home sales, prices and completions, but the boost to new starts and land purchase would be limited.
And while lower downpayment ratios and mortgage rates may boost home sales to some degree, the magnitude of downpayment ratio reductions was relatively small this time, and the pace of cuts to effective mortgage rates could be somewhat constrained by bank net interest margins.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Economics Just Don’t Work”: Demand For Electric Semis Plunges Due To High Costs
“The Economics Just Don’t Work”: Demand For Electric Semis Plunges Due To High Costs
For the last year, we’ve been writing extensively about how high costs and low demand have made EVs uneconomical – and, as a result, unpopular to produce – for the auto industry.
It turns out unionized employees extorting you on labor costs while the government mandates you produce a money-losing product isn’t a combination that leads to prosperity and profit. Go figure.
Now, it isn’t just car manufacturers that are balking from the idea of all electric vehicles: the trucking industry, once expected to eventually make the shift to all electric as well, is seeing tepid demand for new rigs, according to a new Wall Street Journal article.
“The economics just don’t work for most companies,” Robert Sanchez, the chief executive of Ryder, said earlier this month.
Ryder’s experience highlights the difficulties state and federal governments encounter in encouraging truckers to transition from polluting diesel rigs to zero-emissions vehicles, the report says.
It also indicates that significant improvements in battery weight, range, and charging times are necessary for battery-electric trucks to effectively compete with diesel rigs in the cost-sensitive freight industry.
Rakesh Aneja, head of eMobility at Daimler Truck North America, told Wall Street Journal: “Quite frankly, demand has not been as strong as what we would like.”
Aneja said orders for its Freightliner eCascadia battery-electric semi truck are about the same this year as they were in 2023.
Battery-electric trucks are about three times more expensive than diesel rigs, the Journal notes. And while federal and state programs help offset purchase costs, significant hurdles remain due to high operating costs and setup challenges.
Truckers find these electric trucks difficult and costly to run, with installation of on-site charging facilities taking years. These trucks travel less than half the distance of diesel rigs per charge and require several hours to recharge.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russia Orders UK Defense Attaché Out Of The Country In Tit-For-Tat
Russia Orders UK Defense Attaché Out Of The Country In Tit-For-Tat
Russia has hit back at the UK’s latest diplomatic moves against Moscow, on Thursday ordering the expulsion of the British defense attache from the country.
“The defense attaché at the British Embassy in Moscow, A. T. Coghill, has been declared persona non grata. He must leave the territory of the Russian Federation within a week,” Russia’s foreign ministry said.
It follows the UK first expelling Moscow’s defense attache from British soil earlier this month as he was accused of being “an undeclared military intelligence officer.” Russia blasted it as a lie, and its top diplomat overseeing military affairs was forced to leave.
The Kremlin is now threatening further diplomatic escalation while complaining about London’s “unfriendly,” “anti-Russian” and politically motivated recent actions.
The British government has of late quietly launched a pressure campaign on Russian diplomatic facilities and personnel in the UK, with Interior Minister James Cleverly recently briefing parliament that multiple Russian-owned properties will be downgraded from having diplomatic status and protections.
Cleverly alleged that Russian sites in Sussex as well as in London will see their diplomatic immunity removed. Cleverly told parliament that “we believe have been used for intelligence purposes.”
As we detailed this week, British intelligence has gone so far as to accuse Putin of plotting ‘physical attacks’ on British soil and NATO sites.
There have been a spate of new accusations of specific attacks on UK infrastructure being linked to Russia. For example The Telegraph writes that “Last week, a British man was charged with an arson attack in London and accused by prosecutors of working for Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization.”
Million Texans Without Power As Storm Topples Transmission Towers
Million Texans Without Power As Storm Topples Transmission Towers
Powerful storms tore through eastern Texas on Thursday evening, decimating transmission towers and plunging over a million residents into darkness.
“Severe thunderstorms moving across the Houston metro area have a history of producing damaging winds! This destructive storm will contain wind gusts to 80 MPH! A tornado is possible!” the National Weather Service of Houston wrote on X.
X users shared shocking footage of transmission towers that were toppled by the storm.
According to poweroutage.us, more than a million Texans are without power, mainly in the eastern part of the state.
The Texas power grid can’t catch a break.
VW The Latest Automaker To Step Back From All-Electric Plans To Embrace Hybrids
VW The Latest Automaker To Step Back From All-Electric Plans To Embrace Hybrids
Not to be left behind by the rest of the industry, Volkswagen is the latest auto manufacturer to walk back its plans to go all-electric.
The move should come as no surprise to Zero Hedge readers, as we have been writing non-stop about the industry’s shift from BEVs back to a more common sense (and cost efficient) model, hybrids, over the last year.
Volkswagen was once heavily invested in promoting its ID line of electric vehicles as the future, Bloomberg wrote this week. But now it has admitted it needs more plug-in hybrids due to slowing EV sales.
This shift is part of a broader reworking of VW’s electrification plans, following botched model releases and falling behind in China, the report says. The company has abandoned efforts to seek outside investment for its battery unit and canceled plans for a €2 billion EV factory in Germany.
Despite its pivot to electric cars, VW is still selling many combustion engine vehicles and is likely to exceed its emissions allowance next year. CEO Oliver Blume has requested leniency from European regulators, a stark change from VW’s aggressive EV lobbying just three years ago.
VW’s electrification drive was partly a response to the fallout from its diesel emissions scandal, leading to an ambitious plan to launch 75 electric models by 2029. Former CEO Herbert Diess championed this rapid transition, causing friction with industry peers.
While not abandoning EVs, Blume is forming partnerships, like with Xpeng Inc., and preparing a new EV brand in China to attract young consumers. VW is also discussing with Renault SA to develop cheaper EVs for the mass market.
Recall back in April we noted that Ford was “re-timing” its efforts to go all electric and back in February we wrote that GM was shifting to plug-in hybrids, too.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This
Ideally, I would have written this on May 4th not 14th, but I am going to talk Star Wars.
I was a fan in 1977, kept the flame alive when only battered VHS cassettes of the original trilogy existed, and was delighted to get prequels. Until the opening crawl announced, “The taxation of trade routes to outlying star systems is in dispute.” I recall thinking, “This is my job – boring!” But the prequels were better than the sequels and all the TV shows I don’t watch. Indeed, the prequels’ clunky theme of democracy crumbling into autocracy, dispute over trade routes, then war, seems even more prescient than my 2016 ‘Thin Ice’ report, which underlined how the 21st century could echo the 20th, and our more detailed fragmented ‘World in 2030’ report in 2020.
In just the last week: the IMF warned the world risks splitting into walled-off FX/trade blocs; The Economist stated “The liberal international order is slowly coming apart,” with “a worrying number of triggers that could set off a descent into anarchy”; Germany flagged conscription for all 18-year olds and spending over 3% of GDP on defence; China introduced military training for all High School students; Biden raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to 102.5%, and Trump said he would make it 200%, with tariffs on used cooking oil likely next; Bloomberg warned “The US, China, Russia are in a spiral towards war”; the manager of the Hong Kong trade office in London was arrested for spying; and, as some underline Russia has shifted to a full war economy that incentivises the martial, my prediction that markets will serve national security going forwards came true in Putin firing his defence minister to appoint an economist to the role instead.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
US Producer Prices Accelerating At Fastest Rate In 12 Months, Wall Street Reacts…
US Producer Prices Accelerating At Fastest Rate In 12 Months, Wall Street Reacts…
Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, traders are eyeing this morning’s Producer Prices for any hints that the disinflation trend will return…or not.
The answer is “not!”
April Producer Prices rose 0.5% MoM (vs +0.3% exp), with March’s +0.2% MoM revised down to -0.1% MoM. The downward revision did not stop the YoY read rising to 2.2% (from +2.1% in March)…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the highest YoY read since April 2023 and is the fourth hotter than expected headline PPI print…
Source: Bloomberg
Producer Prices have been aggressively downwardly revised for 4 of the last 7 months…
Source: Bloomberg
Services costs soared, dominating April’s PPI gains with Energy the second most important factor. Food prices actually declined on a MoM basis.
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, headline PPI’s rise was dominated by Services (rising at their hottest since July 2023). For the first time since Feb 2023, none of the underlying factors were negative on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
On a 6-month annualized rate, Final Demand Core Services PPI is rising at its highest since Q3 2021…
Source: Goldman Sachs
After last month’s farcical ‘seasonally adjusted’ gasoline price, April saw the PPI Gasoline index rise (with actual prices at the pump) but still has a long way to go…
Source: Bloomberg
Core PPI was worse – rising 0.5% MoM (more than double the +0.2% MoM expected) – which pushed the Core PPI YoY up to +2.4%…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally US PPI Final Demand Less Foods Energy and Trade Services rose by 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY (the highest in 12 months).
Worse still the pipeline for primary PPI is not good as intermediate demand is starting to accelerate…
Source: Bloomberg
Here are Wall Street’s reactions to PPI:
Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Big Oil Has Flourished, Despite Biden’s Best Efforts, And Will Back Trump In 2024
Big Oil Has Flourished, Despite Biden’s Best Efforts, And Will Back Trump In 2024
“It’s death by 1,000 cuts. It’s the worst presidency with regard to energy policy I’ve ever seen — and I’ve been involved in energy for 40 years, my entire career.”
Those were the words of Steve Pruett, chief executive of Elevation Resources, to Financial Times last week, talking about how the Biden Administration has gone out of its way to make life difficult for the energy sector.
After the deregulation seen during Donald Trump’s presidency, a tailwind for the sector, President Biden has prioritized tackling climate change and promised to regulate the oil and gas sectors more tightly.
His administration has introduced a range of environmental regulations, including endangered species protections, methane leak controls, and limits on offshore leasing and new licenses for liquefying and exporting American gas. All the while he has been draining the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve while trying to cover up the tracks of inflation that is spinning out of control under his watch.
While many Democratic voters see these regulations as necessary, they have certainly rendered Biden unpopular in Midland, Texas, FT writes.
Midland lies at the core of the Permian Basin, which produces over 6.1 million barrels of oil a day—more than some OPEC nations—positioning the US as the largest oil producer globally.
FT notes that with the presidential election six months away, energy policy is a major divide between Biden and Trump. Despite Biden’s best efforts, U.S. oil production has soared to record levels, over 13 million barrels per day, boosted by commodity price increases following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Investors have seen substantial returns, with ExxonMobil shares – one of our favorite investments we have been touting for years – doubling since Biden’s inauguration.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Bidenomics At Work: Ford Slashing Battery Orders As Losses Per EV Approach $100,000
Bidenomics At Work: Ford Slashing Battery Orders As Losses Per EV Approach $100,000
Ford is cutting battery orders in yet another sign that the EV market, despite a constant tailwind from the U.S. taxpayer, is starting to slow.
The company is cutting the orders to curb electric-vehicle losses as it scales back its EV strategy in a slowing plug-in market, according to insiders who spoke to Bloomberg.
Ford CEO Jim Farley has said the company’s EV unit “is the main drag on the whole company right now” and CAT said its “cooperation with Ford is moving forward as normal”.
The company responded by saying it wouldn’t comment on relationships with suppliers.
Bloomberg notes that with plummeting EV prices and weakening demand, Ford’s losses per electric vehicle exceeded $100,000 in the first quarter, doubling last year’s deficit.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Ford’s projected EV unit losses this year will nearly offset profits from its Ford Blue division, which produces traditional internal combustion engine vehicles like the Bronco SUV and gas-electric hybrids such as the Maverick truck.
BI analysts said of the results: “That raises questions about the prudence of investing heavily in EVs.”
Ford’s order reductions highlight industry challenges as U.S. automakers face weaker-than-expected EV demand and battery makers in South Korea, China, and beyond struggle with unsold inventory.
This has affected prices for key metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, leading to multiyear lows and stalling new projects. Ford has reduced EV production costs but had to cut prices to stay competitive with Tesla.
Ford CFO John Lawler said in April: “We’ve seen prices coming down quite dramatically and that’s why we haven’t been able to keep up from a cost reduction standpoint.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Escalating Threat Of Avian Influenza H5N1 And The Ethical Quandary Of Gain-of-Function Research
The Escalating Threat Of Avian Influenza H5N1 And The Ethical Quandary Of Gain-of-Function Research
Since the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus was first identified in humans in 2003, approximately 600 cases have been reported worldwide, with a laboratory-confirmed case-fatality rate (CFR) of 60%.
The recent death of a woman in southwest China who had no contact with poultry signals a potentially alarming shift in the virus’s transmission dynamics, raising the specter of human-to-human transmission, according to a report by the Federation of American Scientists.
Health authorities in Guiyang, Guizhou province concluded that two patients, including the woman who died, did not have contact with poultry before showing symptoms of the illness. Currently, the public health community remains cautious as H5N1 influenza viruses continue to evolve and potentially gain the ability to be transmitted efficiently to humans.
The evolution of H5N1 over two decades necessitates an urgent and strategic response from the global health community. Scientific efforts are primarily focused on understanding the genetic shifts that facilitate the virus’s leap among species, aiming to forestall a possible pandemic. This has led to the controversial practice of gain-of-function (GoF) research, wherein viruses are deliberately engineered to be more potent or transmissible.
And of course, as we all know – a bunch of over-educated idiots cobbling together chimeric viruses that can better-infect humans may have led to the COVID-19 pandemic – as GoF research is fraught with ethical, biosafety, and biosecurity dilemmas.
The dual-use nature of this research—where scientific advances could potentially be misused to cause harm—places it under intense scrutiny. The debate is not just about managing the risks of accidental release but also about the moral implications of potentially providing a blueprint for bioterrorism…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russia Launches Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv, Aims To Extend Border 10km Deep Into Ukraine
Russia Launches Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv, Aims To Extend Border 10km Deep Into Ukraine
Following several more cross-border attacks from Ukraine, including direct drone hits on Russian oil facilities over the past 48 hours, Russian forces have launched a surprise ground offensive which seeks to break through front lines in the northeastern Kharkiv border region on Friday.
“Russia launched a new wave of counteroffensive actions… Ukraine met them there with our troops, brigades, and artillery,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed of the new action in a briefing. “Now there is a fierce battle underway.”
Civilians have also been witnessed fleeing border areas in droves as heavy fighting ensues. Already Moscow forces have penetrated at least 1 kilometer deep in what’s being described as an effort to create a larger ‘buffer zone’ in order to help prevent Ukrainian attacks from reaching Russian territory.
Ukraine’s defense ministry said that the new offensive began at 5am local time with armored vehicles leading the charge of infantry troops in this major effort to effectively push the border itself deeper into Ukraine territory.
Kharkiv region on fire amid a major surprise Russian offensive:
But Ukraine defense officials have claimed, “As of now, these attacks have been repulsed; battles of varying intensity continue.”
The AFP has written, “If Moscow’s advances are confirmed, it would represent the Russian military’s largest land operation in the region since sending thousands of troops across the border in February 2022.”
Below: the center of Vovchansk after heavy fighting…
Heavy shelling is also taking place, especially in the vicinity of Vovchansk, which is a border town of a few thousand people but which had a pre-war population of 17,000. According to further unfolding details:
Kharkiv region’s governor said the length of the border and the settlements in it were a “grey zone” and confirmed active fighting taking place.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Meet The Company Helping Restart The Nuclear Revolution In The U.S.
Meet The Company Helping Restart The Nuclear Revolution In The U.S.
A company called Holtec has become the voice for restarting the nuclear power revolution in the U.S.
As it becomes clear that the nation’s needs for power are far underserved, and will certainly be in the future with the adoption of AI, one company, currently the “top US manufacturer of storage equipment for nuclear waste”, is advocating for restarting cold reactors across the country.
Lately, the company’s ambitions have soared. Since 2019, it’s acquired four retired nuclear plants originally intending to decommission them: Indian Point (NY), Oyster Creek (NJ), Pilgrim (MA), and Palisades (MI), according to Bloomberg.
Tearing down old reactors promised good returns due to the hefty trust funds tied to cleanup costs. Holtec quickly became the nation’s leading nuclear decommissioner.
And, as the report notes, despite initially purchasing Palisades to dismantle it, Holtec is now planning to restart the reactor with a $1.5 billion loan from the DOE, marking the first time a cold reactor would be revived in the U.S. However, Holtec lacks experience in running nuclear plants.
While concerns have been raised due to Holtec’s safety violations in the past four years of decommissioning, others consider such infractions normal in this tightly regulated industry. Nevertheless, nuclear power is increasingly seen as key to curbing greenhouse gas emissions, and Holtec aims to have Palisades online again soon and launch its own small modular reactors (SMRs) by the end of the decade.
SMRs, factory-built reactors that can be assembled onsite, represent a highly complex and largely unproven endeavor for Holtec and the industry – yet one we have written about extensively as the obvious next step for the industry. Just yesterday we highlighted Sam Altman’s now-greenlighted nuclear SPAC, trading under ALCC before switching to OKLO at the end of this week.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
West Fueling Global Conflicts, Trying To Topple Moscow, Putin Says On WW2 Victory Day
West Fueling Global Conflicts, Trying To Topple Moscow, Putin Says On WW2 Victory Day
As fully expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a defiant tone in his speech at Moscow’s Red Square for the annual events commemorating Russia’s WW2 victory. Addressing thousands of soldiers in ceremonial attire, Putin accused the “arrogant” West of stoking conflict around the world.
“We know what the exorbitance of such ambitions leads to. Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash,” he said. “But at the same time, we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are always in a state of combat readiness,” he stressed in reference to the country’s nuclear forces.
The 71-year-old leader hailed that “Victory Day unites all generations,” and vowed: “We are going forward relying on our centuries-old traditions and feel confident that together we will ensure a free and secure future of Russia.”
He called Victory Day “very emotional and poignant” as “Every family is honoring its heroes, looking at pictures with dear faces and remembering their relatives and how they fought.”
He contrasted the “heroes” – Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, with the West – which is “fueling regional conflicts, inter-ethnic and inter-religious strife and trying to contain sovereign and independent centers of global development.”
Present for the ceremony was nearly 10,000 Russian troops, including 1,000 who have fought inside Ukraine. According to AP correspondents, Putin underscored his ‘nuclear deterrent’ messaging by having nuke-capable missiles present:
Nuclear-capable Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles were pulled across Red Square, underscoring his message.
The Soviet Union lost about 27 million people in World War II, an estimate that many historians consider conservative, scarring virtually every family.
One theme which emerged from Putin’s speech is that the West has ignored and forgotten the immense sacrifice that Russians made in defeating the Nazis in WW2.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
