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Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to January 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

Non-OPEC production continued to climb from the May 2020 low of 45,272 kb/d. January’s output increased by 448 kb/d to 48,862 kb/d from December. The January increase was primarily driven by output increases from Brazil (147 kb/d) and China (164 kb/d). From May 2020 to January 2021, production increased by a total of 3,590 kb/d or an average of close to 450 kb/d/mth.

Using data from the April 2021 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC output was made to December 2022 (red graph). Output is expected to reach 52,064 kb/d, which is lower than the previous high of December 2019, by close to 500 kb/d. February 2021 output is projected to drop by 1,534 kb/d due to the disruption caused by the major snow storm in the L48 U.S. states.

Ranking Production from NON-OPEC Countries

Above are listed the worldʼs 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. They produced 83.6% of the Non-OPEC output in January. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production decreased by 3,601 kb/d while on a MoM basis, production increased by 448 kb/d to 48,862 kb/d. World YoY output is down by 6,906 kb/d. As noted above, the January increase was primarily driven by output increases from Brazil (147 kb/d), China (164 kb/d) and Russia (111 kb/d), countries with the largest monthly increases.

The EIA reported Brazilʼs January production increased by 147 kb/d to 2,873 kb/d.

According to this source February’s output dropped by 8% from January to 2,730 kb/d and then recovered to 2,844 kb/d in March, according to this source (Red Markers).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Update, March 2021

March 17, 2021

OPEC Update, March 2021

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for March 2021 was published this past week. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is February 2021 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). The numbers at the left side of the graphs show February 2021 output (and in some cases the trailing 12 month average output).

OPEC crude output decreased by 647 kb/d in February 2021, total OPEC crude output for January 2021 was not revised from last month’s report. Most of the decrease in OPEC output was due to a cutback in Saudi Arabia’s output by 930 kb/d from January to February 2021.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dennis Coyne, OPEC, oil , oil production, peak oil barrel

OPEC Update, February 2020

February 15, 2021

OPEC Update, February 2020

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for January 2020 was published this past week. The last month reported in each of the charts that follow is January 2021 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d).

OPEC crude output increased by 181 kb/d in January 2021, December 2020 output was revised down from last month’s report by 47 kb/d.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US January Production Drops Again

April 14, 2020

US January Production Drops Again

Preparing this March post has been a surrealistic exercise. Here I am providing a January US production update when at a time, January, the world had no clue that it was going to be hit with a double Black Swan event in early March . There was a hint in January on the coming pandemic for those who were listening. However, there was no clue of the Shock and Awe attack that would be launched by SA after Putin and his Oily Oligarch friend Sechin made the wrong move in the world’s Oil Chess Game. Russia thought that they had SA in Check, instead Russia and the rest of world were End Played. Now, a way must be found out of this mess. Reports are circulating that Trump and Putin have been talking and that an OPEC + meeting will be convened shortly. Let’s hope adult’s come to the table.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that the world will need lower oil prices to come out of the current economic slowdown. The question is, if an agreement can be brokered between US, Russia and OPEC, “What will be the right price for oil for both the producers and the economy?

The irony here is that Trump will be holding meetings with oil company executives shortly to see how the US can help. In the meantime the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) bill keeps circulating within Congress. Interesting how the world, US positions and thinking, can be flipped upside down over night.

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. At the end, an analysis of a three different EIA reports is provided.

The charts below are updated to January 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (Production > 100 kb/d).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – September 2019 Edition with data for July

October 21, 2019

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – September 2019 Edition with data for July

The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on September 24th, with data for July 2019. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year 2019 to date.

The Table immediately above shows the absolute amounts of electricity generated in gigawatt-hours by the main sources for the last two months and the year to date. In July the absolute amount of electricity generated increased, as is usual for the month of July when compared to June for the period covered by the charts, January 2013 to date. Coal and Natural Gas between them, fueled 66.92% of US electricity generation in July. The contribution of zero carbon and carbon neutral sources declined from 37.86% in June to 32.25% in July.

The 12,055 GWh generated by Solar in July 2019 is a record, exceeding the previous record of 11,8549 GWh, set in the previous month, June 2019. It is possible that the output from solar in August could exceed the output in July as was the case in 2014 and 2015. While the percentage contribution from solar did not decline between the months of May and June it declined slightly in July 2019 as is customary when the total amount generated ramps up heading into the midsummer peak. The increase in production from solar has not continued to keep pace with the total increase in generation from June to July. However, as solar capacity continues to increase, in future years it can be expected that the contribution from solar will keep pace with the total and eventually increase going into the summer months.

The graph below shows the absolute monthly production from the various sources since January 2013, as well as the total amount generated (right axis).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

September 15, 2019

OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

The OPEC charts below were produced from data published in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

The OPEC 14 was up 136,000 barrels per day in August.

Nothing happening in Algeriaexcept a slow decline.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Variability vs AGW

August 28, 2019

Climate Variability vs AGW

Emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuel contributes significantly to a gradual increase in the world’s average temperature. What’s also known but less understood is the erratic variation in the average temperature due to cycles in the ocean, resulting in episodes of El Nino and La Nina. Some claim that these temperature extremes are well-understood as a result of changes in the trade winds, as the wind pushes the water around the Pacific ocean, exposing colder or warmer water to the surface. This may have been a perfectly acceptable explanation, except it doesn’t address what causes the wind to vary — in other words the source of the erratic wind variation is just as unknown.

So we are still left with no root cause for the ocean cycles. Apart from the strictly seasonal changes we have no explanation for the longer-term pattern of natural variation observed.

The likely key to a physical understanding rests in solving the fluid dynamics of the ocean. There are two aspects to this that have long presented an intellectual challenge. The first challenge has been to model the sloshing dynamics of a huge body of water — this typically involves numerical calculation in the form of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The second challenge is to feed in a possible forcing and see if that can match the cyclic patterns observed. This requires a search through plausible physical mechanisms. Complicating matters is that the cycles may be chaotic so that any agreement we find would be useless from a practical standpoint, as chaotic patterns are impossible to model regardless of the source forcing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

USA and World Oil Production

August 6, 2019

USA and World Oil Production

The USA data below was taken primarily from the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly while some were taken from the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.

I have some bad news to report. The EIA no longer published World production data or Non-OPEC production data. This data had previously been published in the Monthly Energy Review.

The Monthly Energy Review’s data was one month behind the Petroleum Supply Monthly but now they jumped two months and are now one month ahead of the Petroleum Supply Monthly. They now publish the previous month’s numbers, June in this case, but now publish only US data. The Petroleum Supply Monthly is unchanged.

EDIT: The Petroleum Supply Monthly does publish some, incomplete, world data… through April or one month behind their USA data. I will use that with an explanation and comments next month.

The closest I can come to World oil production, through June, is the combined production of OPEC, Russia, the USA, and Canada. This is 70% of total World Production.

Here is the other 30% of World oil production. However, this data is only through March. Unfortunately, I can never update this chart because the EIA no longer publishes the data

This 30% of World oil production peaked in late 2015 and has declined an average of 450,000 barrels per day per year every year since.

Actually, in 2015 these countries averaged about 32% of World oil production but now averages about 29%.

I have no other source for World oil production. The IEA publishes quarterly projected data for the World and Non-OPEC. But this data is total liquids and only quarterly projections that bears little resemblance to actual C+C production.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

June 15, 2019

OPEC May Production Data

The below charts, unless otherwise noted, were taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. The data is through May, 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC crude only production was down 236,000 barrels per day in May but that was after April production had been revised upward by 82,000 bpd.

Iranian April production was revised upward by 43,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia April production was revised upward by 24,000 bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA tight oil estimates

May 26, 2019

EIA tight oil estimates

The US Energy Information Administration publishes Tight Oil Production Estimates by Play each month (can be found at link above.) I noticed this month that the estimates seemed different than I remembered so I checked earlier estimates I had saved on my computer. The chart below compares estimates from Dec 2018 to April 2019 (where the last month of data in the estimate is Dec 2018, Feb 2019, March 2019, and April 2019).

As is clear from the chart the February and March estimates have each been revised lower over the past two updates. If this should continue, we might see relatively flat tight oil output for all of 2019.

I have revised my estimate for future US tight oil output to a 400+/-100 kb/d increase in monthly average tight oil output from December 2018 to December 2019.

OPEC March Data and Saudi Report

April 10, 2019

OPEC March Data and Saudi Report

The below OPEC charts were taken from data in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through March 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

There was another big decline in OPEC production in March, down 534,000 barrels per day.

The decline was mostly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iraq.

Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from quotas. Everyone except Saudi Arabia are near their quota. Saudi is over half a million barrels per day below their quota.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – March 2019 Edition with data for January 2019

April 6, 2019

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – March 2019 Edition with data for January 2019

The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on March 26th, with data for January 2019. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year 2019 to date.

In January, the absolute amount of electricity generated rose back to levels not seen since the end of summer in September 2018, probably as a result of the need for longer hours of lighting during the longer nights coupled with the increased needs for heating in the middle of winter. Coal and Natural Gas between them, fueled 61.49% of US electricity generation in January, with the contributions from Nuclear and Conventional Hydroelectric declining. The contribution from Natural Gas was up at 33.25%, from 31.71% in December, with the amount generated rising from 106,978 GWh to 118,935 GWh. Generation fueled by coal increased from 96,825 GWh to 101,019 GWh resulting in the percentage contribution falling from 28.70% to 28.24%. The amount of electricity generated by Nuclear plants increased from 71,657 GWh to 73,701 GWh with the resulting contribution actually declining from 21.24% to 20.60% in January. The amount generated by Conventional Hydroelectric increased from 23,728 GWh in December to 24,544 GWh in January with resulting contribution decreasing to 6.86% as opposed to 7.03% in December. The amount generated by Wind increased from 21,154 GWh to 22,493 GWh with the resulting contribution rising very slightly from 6.27% to 6.29% in January. The estimated total solar output rose from 4.962 GWh to 5,859 GWh with the resulting contribution rising from 1.47% to 1.56%. The contribution of zero carbon or carbon neutral sources declined from 38.59% in December to 37.41% in January.

The graph below shows the absolute monthly production from the various sources as well as the total amount generated (right axis).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook

March 22, 2019

The EIA’s Optimistic Outlook

Most of the data below is taken from from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. The data through February, 2019 is the EIA’s best estimate of past production and all data from March 2019 through December 2020 is the EIA’s best estimate of future production. However in most cases February production is highly speculative so I drew the “projection” line between January and February.

Understand the above chart is Total Liquids, not C+C as I usually post. As you can see the EIA expects world petroleum liquids to keep climbing ever upwards.

This is the EIA’s data for OPEC all liquids with Production data from April 2019 through December 2020.

Notice the EIA expects OPEC production to keep declining through December 2020. Also they expect total liquids to decline slightly faster than crude only. This is interesting since neither condensate nor other liquids are subject to OPEC quotas.

About two years ago I made note that the EIA expected Non-OPEC to plateau but they expected OPEC to keep increasing into the future. Now they have completely reversed themselves as they expect all future growth, at least for the next two years, to come from Non-OPEC countries.

The below chart is from the EIA’a Monthly Energy review and is C+C through November 2018.

Virtually all crude oil increase since 2016 has come from three countries, USA, Russia and Canada. The spike upward (circled) in October and November 2018 was partially due to OPEC prepping for cuts. Every OPEC country made heroic efforts to increase productio during those two months in order to increase their quota. Quotas were set in December.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – December 2018 Edition with data for October

December 31, 2018

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – December 2018 Edition with data for October

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The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on December 26th, with data for October 2018. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year to date.

In October, as usual for this time of the year, the absolute amount of electricity generated continued to decline with the mid summer demand for air conditioning falling away further. Coal and Natural Gas between them, fueled 64.98% of US electricity generation in October, with the contributions from most other major sources edging up slightly. The contribution from Natural Gas was down at 38.11%, from 40.01% in September, with the amount generated falling from 142,745 GWh to 124,027 GWh. Generation fueled by coal declined from 96,743 Gwh to 87,452 GWh resulting in the percentage contribution falling from 27.12% to 26.87%. The amount of electricity generated by Nuclear plants decreased from 64,725 GWh to 59,397 GWh with the resulting contribution actually rising very slightly from 18.14% to 18.25% in October. The amount generated by conventional hydroelectric increased from 18,663 GWh in September to 18,779 GWh in October with resulting contribution increasing to 5.77% as opposed to 5.23% in September. The amount generated by wind increased from 16,022 GWh to 19,507 GWh with the resulting contribution rising from 4.49% to 5.99% in September. The estimated total solar output fell from 9,153 GWh to 7,625 GWh with the resulting contribution falling from 2.57% to 2.34%. The contribution of zero carbon or carbon neutral sources rose from 32.01% in September to 34.10% in October.

The graph below shows the absolute production from the various sources as well as the total amount generated (right axis).

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