January Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs Again
Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to January 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.
Non-OPEC production continued to climb from the May 2020 low of 45,272 kb/d. January’s output increased by 448 kb/d to 48,862 kb/d from December. The January increase was primarily driven by output increases from Brazil (147 kb/d) and China (164 kb/d). From May 2020 to January 2021, production increased by a total of 3,590 kb/d or an average of close to 450 kb/d/mth.
Using data from the April 2021 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC output was made to December 2022 (red graph). Output is expected to reach 52,064 kb/d, which is lower than the previous high of December 2019, by close to 500 kb/d. February 2021 output is projected to drop by 1,534 kb/d due to the disruption caused by the major snow storm in the L48 U.S. states.
Ranking Production from NON-OPEC Countries
Above are listed the worldʼs 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. They produced 83.6% of the Non-OPEC output in January. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production decreased by 3,601 kb/d while on a MoM basis, production increased by 448 kb/d to 48,862 kb/d. World YoY output is down by 6,906 kb/d. As noted above, the January increase was primarily driven by output increases from Brazil (147 kb/d), China (164 kb/d) and Russia (111 kb/d), countries with the largest monthly increases.
The EIA reported Brazilʼs January production increased by 147 kb/d to 2,873 kb/d.
According to this source February’s output dropped by 8% from January to 2,730 kb/d and then recovered to 2,844 kb/d in March, according to this source (Red Markers).
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