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July Non-OPEC and World Oil Production

December 1, 2023

July Non-OPEC and World Oil Production

The EIA continues to have problems with updating its World oil production website. Consequently, this month’s report is again a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June and July is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China are used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last six months up to May was used to project June and July production and in a few cases August production.

World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.

The current May International Energy Statistics has been updated to correct for the missing condensate production in the previous Russian file and is used for this report.

July Non-OPEC oil production increased by 520 kb/d to 52,245 kb/d and is up 1,706 kb/d from May. Close to 500 kb/d of the June increase is related to the EIA’s condensate correction for Russia in the EIA’s updated May International Energy Statistics. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.

Using production data from the November 2023 STEO and the updated May EIA International Energy Statistics, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period August 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 53,377 kb/d in December 2024, which is 969 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d. August production is expected to increase by 27 kb/d.

From August 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,105. Note that production is expected to be relatively flat till May 2024.

July Non-OPEC W/O US production increased by 455 kb/d to 39,286 kb/d.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

June Non-OPEC Oil Production Rises from U.S. and Russia Boost

October 19, 2022

June Non-OPEC Oil Production Rises from U.S. and Russia Boost

Below are a number of Crude oil plus Condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to June 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.

June Non-OPEC production increased by 178 kb/d to 48,990 kb/d. The largest increases came from Russia, 510 kb/d and the U.S., 201 kb/d. The largest offsetting decreases came from Kazakhstan, 381 kb/d and Norway, 285 kb/d. 

Using data from the October 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period July 2022 to December 2023. (Red graph).  Output is expected to be 50,266 kb/d in December 2023. This forecast is 608 kb/d lower than predicted in the September report due to significant downward changes in the October STEO.

The large increase in July is due to a 1,600 kb/d increase in all liquids over June forecast in the October STEO. The C + C projection reduces the 1,600 kb/d increase to 1,084 kb/d.

Note that the September 2022 high of 50,588 kb/d is the high for all of 2022 and 2023.

The red capacity decline line represents an average decline rate for Non-OPEC countries over the four years since December 2019 and is combination of the natural decline rate plus possible reduction in exploration and production capacity/investment.

Non-OPEC Oil Production Ranked by Country

…click on the above link to read the rest…

September Non-OPEC Oil Production Slips

January 16, 2022

September Non-OPEC Oil Production Slips

Below are a number of oil, crude plus condensate (C + C ), production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to September 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

September Non-OPEC production declined by 44 kb/d to 48,482 kb/d. The biggest changes in production occurred in the US, -381 kb/d and Russia, +290 kb/d.

Using data from the January 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period October 2021 to December 2023 (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 52,208 kb/d in December 2023, which is 291 kb/d lower than the December 2019 pre-covid peak of 52,499 kb/d. 

Output in October is expected to rebound to 49,347 kb/d, an increase of 865 kb/d. The majority of the 865 kb/d increase will come from the recovery of US production in October, 651 kb/d, and close to 250 kb/d from OPEC.

Above are listed the world’s 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. The last two have currently fallen below 1,000 kb/d. 

In September, these 11 countries produced 84.3% of the Non-OPEC output. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production increased by 1,689 kb/d while on a MoM basis production decreased by 44 kb/d to 48,482 kb/d.  World YoY September output was up by 4,992 kb/d. 

Production by Country

The EIA reported Brazil’s September production increased by 3 kb/d to 3,001 kb/d. According to this source, October output dropped by 223 kb/d to 2,778 kb/d in October and then rebounded to 2,852 kb/d in November. (Red Markers). 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

January Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs Again

May 10, 2021

January Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs Again

Below are a number of oil (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIAʼs International Energy Statistics and updated to January 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

Non-OPEC production continued to climb from the May 2020 low of 45,272 kb/d. January’s output increased by 448 kb/d to 48,862 kb/d from December. The January increase was primarily driven by output increases from Brazil (147 kb/d) and China (164 kb/d). From May 2020 to January 2021, production increased by a total of 3,590 kb/d or an average of close to 450 kb/d/mth.

Using data from the April 2021 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC output was made to December 2022 (red graph). Output is expected to reach 52,064 kb/d, which is lower than the previous high of December 2019, by close to 500 kb/d. February 2021 output is projected to drop by 1,534 kb/d due to the disruption caused by the major snow storm in the L48 U.S. states.

Ranking Production from NON-OPEC Countries

Above are listed the worldʼs 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. They produced 83.6% of the Non-OPEC output in January. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production decreased by 3,601 kb/d while on a MoM basis, production increased by 448 kb/d to 48,862 kb/d. World YoY output is down by 6,906 kb/d. As noted above, the January increase was primarily driven by output increases from Brazil (147 kb/d), China (164 kb/d) and Russia (111 kb/d), countries with the largest monthly increases.

The EIA reported Brazilʼs January production increased by 147 kb/d to 2,873 kb/d.

According to this source February’s output dropped by 8% from January to 2,730 kb/d and then recovered to 2,844 kb/d in March, according to this source (Red Markers).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Non-OPEC Mid-size Oil Producers

November 29, 2017

Non-OPEC Mid-size Oil Producers

This post covers recent C&C production and future prospects, with a bit on gas, for several mid-size non-OPEC producers. A few have been omitted (e.g. Canada, Kazakhstan, Egypt, UK) for no particular reasons other than lack of time or anything much to say, but may be covered in the future. Many of the countries here have held a bumpy plateau over the last twelve to eighteen months. For most this has come after a period of decline, and some are showing signs that decline might be starting again. Brazil has been on a plateau after a period of increase, and may be about to renew that growth. There is a general theme that oil discoveries and developments are drying up and most of the countries are looking more to gas, but with the current gas glut looking like it might end up worse than the 2014/15 oil glut that strategy may prove difficult in the near term.

Brazil

Brazil production peaked in March and has been on a plateau since (data below is through July, there should have been an August update but ANP aren’t very consistent in release dates). They have had several large FPSOs offline for maintenance (generally their FPSOs don’t have the best availability and they have had recent common mode failure issues with the high pressure gas risers, though I don’t know if this is a direct cause of the recent turnarounds). The Campos fields’ average water cut seems to be accelerating, which might also be contributing to a plateau rather than allowing a new peak.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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