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8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash
8-Reasons To Hold Some Extra Cash Over the past few months, we have been writing a series of articles that highlight our concerns of increasing market risk. Here is a sampling of some of our more recent newsletters on the issue. Never Hurts To Ring The Cash Register Looking For A Sellable Rally Bull vs. […]
Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard
Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard Review & Market Update Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard The Real Crisis Is Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: “There is also just […]
Economic Theories & Debt Driven Realities
Economic Theories & Debt Driven Realities One of the most highly debated topics over the past few months has been the rise of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The economic theory has been around for quite some time but was shoved into prominence recently by Congressional Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “New Green Deal” which is heavily dependent on massive […]
Technically Speaking: Stuck In The Middle With You
Technically Speaking: Stuck In The Middle With You In this past weekend’s missive, we discussed the market stalling at the 200-dma. To wit: “We said then the most likely target for the rally was the 200-dma. It was essentially the level at which the ‘irresistible force would meet the immovable object.’” “What will be critically important now […]
Why Another 50% Correction Is Possible
Why Another 50% Correction Is Possible All of sudden….volatility. Well, that is what it seems like anyway after several years of a steady grind higher in the markets. However, despite the pickup in volatility, the breaks of previous bullish trends, and a reversal in Central Bank policy, it is still widely believed that bear markets […]
Oil Sends A “Crude Warning”
Oil Sends A “Crude Warning” As with many Americans, I am on the road with the family making the traditional holiday rounds. Of course, my family is more “The Griswolds” than “The Waltons. but even with all of the antics, comedy, and occasional drama, it is always an enjoyable time of the year. However, I did […]
Bear Market Growls As Market Remains Weak 11-16-18
Bear Market Growls As Market Remains Weak Several months ago, I penned an article about the problems with “passive indexing” and specifically the problem of the “algorithms” that are driving roughly 80% of the trading in the markets. To wit: “When the ‘robot trading algorithms’ begin to reverse (selling rallies rather than buying dips), it will […]
What The Oil Price Collapse Says About The Economy
What The Oil Price Collapse Says About The Economy In Tuesday’s technical update, I discussed the breakdown in the major markets both internationally as well as domestically. Of note, was the massive bear market in China which is currently down nearly 50 percent from its peak. (Click to enlarge) What is important about China, besides […]
The Economic Consequences Of Debt
The Economic Consequences Of Debt Not surprisingly, my recent article on “The Important Role Of Recessions” led to more than just a bit of debate on why “this time is different.” The running theme in the debate was that debt really isn’t an issue as long as our neighbors are willing to support continued fiscal largesse. As I […]
Kass: High Anxiety In The Markets
Kass: High Anxiety In The Markets “Brophy: I got it. I got it. I got it. [thump] Brophy: I ain’t got it.” – Mel Brooks, High Anxiety Arriving at Los Angeles International Airport, Dr. Richard Thorndyke has several odd encounters (such as a flasher impersonating a police officer, and a passing bus with a full orchestra playing inside it). Dr. Thorndyke […]
Markets Get Crash(ier)
Markets Get Crash(ier) Over the last three weeks, as interest rates surged above 3%, we explored the question of whether something had “just broken” in the market. Did Something Just Break? 10-05-18 Yes, Something Just Broke 10-12-18 Market Clings To Support – 10-19-18 As I stated last week: “This past week has been a decidedly tough […]
Yes, Something Broke
Yes, Something Broke In this missive, we are just going to focus on the “WTF!” moment of this past week. In order to do this properly, I need to start with last week’s missive where we asked the question “Did Something Just Break?” In that article we addressed very specific concerns about interest rates and the problem they […]
The Next Crisis Will Be The Last
The Next Crisis Will Be The Last It is an interesting thing. Throughout the last four decades there is a direct link between the actions of the Federal Reserve and the eventual economic and market outcomes due to changes in monetary policy. In every case, that outcome has been negative. The general consensus continues to […]
The Fed Will Ignite The Next “Financial Crisis”
The Fed Will Ignite The Next “Financial Crisis” There seems to be a very large consensus the markets have entered into a “permanently high plateau,” or an era in which price corrections in asset prices have been effectively eliminated through fiscal and monetary policy. Partnering with this fairytale like mindset is an overwhelming sense of […]
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts
Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts Since the election, markets have accelerated the pace of the advance as shown in the chart below. The advance has had two main story lines to support the bullish narrative. It’s an earnings recovery story, and; It’s all about tax cuts. There is much to debate about the earnings recovery […]
