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Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis

March 7, 2024

Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis

Governments of the European Union are engaged in wargames which simulate and foresee a global food crisis. A mix of major factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and impact on grain supplies there, as well as weather events like El Niño and La Niña and their impact on Latin American soy output, and the anti-EU farmers’ protests which have disrupted supermarket supply chains, have been cause for alarm, European officials say. Of course there’s also the example of how drastically a pandemic can interfere with supply chains. Panic buying was a trend and constant fear within the early months of the coronavirus crisis.

Bloomberg details of a conference held in Brussels last month that envisioned a 2024 to 2025 food shortage in Europe: “…over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis.”

Getty Images

Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer who helped put the conference gaming scenario together told participants to “Expect a level of chaos” and cautioned, “You may be confused at times and not have enough information.”

As the report underscores, what’s remarkable about this is the fact that a continent which stands out as among the best-fed regions in the world is now busy stress testing its food system.

Below are some of the scenarios put before participants in the wargaming event last month:

* * *

Harvest failures:

“And so, it’s 2025 and there are more harvest failures. They impact animal feed prices, which curbs livestock and fish production. Some ships carrying crops turn away from Europe to cater to higher bidders elsewhere.”

Palm oil exports cut:

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

February 21, 2024

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

EU warships have set off for the Red Sea, where the US navy is waging its largest conflict since the end of WWII in support of Israel

(Photo Credit: Getty Images)

A high-ranking Yemeni official has warned the EU against “supporting the American devil to protect [Israel]” following the formal launch of the Aspides naval mission in the Red Sea.

“For Europeans, do not play with fire. Take a lesson from Britain,” Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, said via social media on 20 February.

“You do not need the support of the American devil in protecting the occupying entity so that it can exterminate the people of Gaza with no disturbance,” Houthi added, stressing that “international navigation is safe.”

His message followed an announcement by Brussels of the official launch of the EU naval operation codenamed Aspides – Greek for shield.

“I welcome today’s decision … Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said via social media.

France, Germany, Italy, and Belgium have said they will contribute ships to the EU mission in support of Israel.

The bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, described the mission as “bold action to protect the commercial and security interests of the EU and the international community.”

With a mandate initially set for one year, Aspides will see the deployment of EU warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters. According to officials in Brussels, the mission will be exclusively defensive, and its forces will not partake in US-led attacks against Yemen.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Exxon Threatens to Take Billions of Dollars in Climate Investment Out of the EU

February 21, 2024

Exxon Threatens to Take Billions of Dollars in Climate Investment Out of the EU

Exxon has warned the European Union that it will leave and take billions of dollars in climate investment with it unless Brussels makes it easier to spend those billions on transition-related projects.

The Financial Times cited the company today as saying that there was way too much red tape in the EU and it took too long to get a project going, which prompted the supermajor to consider spending its $20 billion in decarbonization investments for 2022-2027 elsewhere.

“When we make investments, we’ve got very long time horizons in mind. I would say that recent developments in Europe have not instilled confidence in long-term, predictable policies,” Karen McKee, president of Exxon Product Solutions, told the FT.

“What we’re experiencing is the deindustrialisation of the European economy and we’re concerned,” McKee also said.

The European Union’s leadership has promised time and again it will facilitate transition projects but it seems it has been slow to act on this promise. According to Exxon—and a lot of other companies involved in the transition—getting a project off the ground in the EU is fraught with regulatory obstacles and “slow and torturous” permitting and funding procedures, per Exxon’s McKee.

The EU’s Green Deal plan features a “predictable and simplified regulatory environment” as one of its four pillars but judging from the reactions of the business world, this has yet to go from theory to practice. Faster access to funding is the second pillar in the EU’s lineup but that, too, is taking quite long to materialize.

It is these delays in implementation that have prompted business leaders to meet today in Belgium to press the EU leadership into going from words to actions. There is growing concern that the regulatory burden put on businesses is scaring them away, taking investments elsewhere.

There are also some European leaders, notably France’s Emmanuel Macron and Belgium’s Alexander de Croo, who have blamed red tape for the farmers’ protests.

 

France Caves To Farmers As Ireland ‘Solidarity’ Protests Kick Off

February 4, 2024

France Caves To Farmers As Ireland ‘Solidarity’ Protests Kick Off

Two of France’s main farming unions on Thursday agreed to suspend protests and lift road blockades across the country after the government announced measures the deemed “tangible progress” in the ongoing revolt against EU ‘climate-driven’ initiatives designed to wean society off of evil, non-bug-based, carbon-emitting food while China, India, and the rest of the world laughs.

In addition to France, protests have been held in Belgium, Portugal, Greece, Germany and elsewhere. Last week, tensions came to a head in Brussels when farmers threw eggs and stones at the European Parliament building, demanding that European leaders stop punishing them with more taxes and rising costs to finance the so-called ‘green agenda.’

After French farmers stepped up protests earlier in the week, the government promised on Thursday to extend protections – including better controlling imports and giving farmers additional aid, Reuters reports.

“Everywhere in Europe the same question arises: how do we continue to produce more but better? How can we continue to tackle climate change? How can we avoid unfair competition from foreign countries?,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, announcing the new measures.

In response, France’s main farmers union, FNSEA, announced that it was time to lift the blockades and “go home.” Arnaud Gaillot of the Young Farmers’ union echoed the message, however both unions warned that other types of protests would continue, and they’d be back if the government doesn’t make good on their promises.

Meanwhile in Ireland, farmers began protesting Thursday evening.

“There’s a general dissatisfaction with the level of environmental regulation that is being heaped on farmers, the low margins, and (the) resulting low income the farmers have been suffering from for a very long time now,” said Cathal MacCarthy, media director for the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association, adding…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Mess In The West: ‘Army Of God’ Convoy Heads To US Border While EU Farmers Block Cities

January 29, 2024

Mess In The West: ‘Army Of God’ Convoy Heads To US Border While EU Farmers Block Cities

In the US, a convoy of truckers, calling themselves “God’s Army,” is preparing to embark on a journey from several locations across the Lower 48 to the southern border as tensions soar between Texas and the Biden administration. Meanwhile across the Atlantic, farmers are bearing down on Europe’s capitals – from Bucharest to Warsaw to Brussels – venting frustrations about climate policies. These social instabilities are breaking out ahead of key European and US elections this year.

The organizers of the “Take Our Border Back” convoy are “calling all active & retired law enforcement and military, Veterans, Mama Bears, elected officials, business owners, ranchers, truckers, bikers, media and LAW ABIDING, freedom-loving Americans” to “assemble in honor of our US Constitution and Bill of Rights” at the southern border, in protest against the federal government’s inability to secure the border, according to the convoy’s website.

“Fellow citizens and compatriots … I call on you in the name of liberty, of patriotism and everything dear to the American character to come to our aid with all dispatch,” Pete Chambers, one of the coalition’s leaders, wrote. “If this call is neglected, we are determined to sustain ourselves as long as possible and act like soldiers who never forget what is due to our own honor and that of our country.”

The convoy plans to “send a message” to government officials at all levels about the need to secure the board amid the multi-year invasion of millions of illegals. Chambers believes Americans are “besieged on all sides” by evil “dark forces.”

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Central Asia is the prime battlefield in the New Great Game

August 21, 2023

Central Asia is the prime battlefield in the New Great Game

So long as Russia and China remain the region’s dominant political and economic powers, the Central Asian heartland will remain a US and EU target for threats, bribes, and color revolutions.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Samarkand, Uzbekistan – The historical Heartland – or Central Eurasia – already is, and will continue to be, the prime battlefield in the New Great Game, fought between the United States and the China-Russia strategic partnership.

The original Great Game pitted the British and Russian empires in the late 19th century, and in fact, never got away: it just metastasized into the US-UK entente versus the USSR, and, subsequently, the US-EU versus Russia.

According to the Mackinder-designed geopolitical game conceptualized by imperial Britain back in 1904, The Heartland is the proverbial “pivot of History,” and its re-energized 21st century historical role is as relevant as in centuries ago: a key driver of emerging multipolarity.

So it’s no wonder all major powers are at work in the Heartland/Central Eurasia: China, Russia, US, EU, India, Iran, Turkiye, and to a lesser extent, Japan. Four out of five Central Asian “stans” are full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. And some, like Kazakhstan, may soon become members of BRICS+.

Map of Central Asia

The key direct geopolitical clash for influence across the Heartland pits the US against Russia and China on myriad political, economic, and financial fronts.

The imperial modus operandi privileges – what else – threats and ultimatums. Only four months ago, US emissaries from the State Department, Treasury, and Office of Foreign Affairs Control (OFAC) toured the Heartland bearing a whole package of “gifts,” as in blatant or thinly disguised threats. The key message: if you “help” or even trade with Russia in any way, you will be slapped with secondary sanctions.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

 

‘Some EU Banks May Be Vulnerable’ – ECB Tells Ministers ‘No Room For Complcency’

March 16, 2023

‘Some EU Banks May Be Vulnerable’ – ECB Tells Ministers ‘No Room For Complcency’

The world was saved there briefly overnight after SNB’s giant liquidity shot into CS.

But it didn’t take long fort reality to sink in about the band-aid-like nature of this facility.

However, the situation under the hood may in fact be worse than some thought as Bloomberg reports, according to people familiar with the talks, that ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told finance ministers on Tuesday that some European Union banks could be vulnerable to rising interest rates.

Guindos said that the ECB couldn’t rule out that some lenders might be at risk because of their business models, according to the people.

The market did not like that reality check with European IG credit spreads now above yesterday’s highs…

Guindos also cautioned not to be complacent and warned that a lack of confidence could trigger contagion.

Touching on a likely key theme of Thursday’s rate decision, Guindos highlighted the potential conflict between the ECB’s mission to bring down inflation and potential damage to some financial institutions from higher interest rates.

And after that headline on bank vulnerability, the odds of a 50bps hike today have tumbled…

What will Christine do?

Bankruptcies Soar Across EU, As Companies Hit Wall At Fastest Rate Since Records Began in 2015

March 14, 2023

Bankruptcies Soar Across EU, As Companies Hit Wall At Fastest Rate Since Records Began in 2015

Legions of European companies are succumbing to the final straw of Europe’s largely self-inflicted energy crisis. 

Bankruptcy proceedings in the Canary Islands, Spain’s heavily tourism-dependent island chain, soared a whopping 276% year over year in 2022, according to the latest data published by the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) in its report, “The Effects of the Economic Crisis on Judicial Bodies.” The archipelago also saw the highest rate of dismissal claims in Spain, with around 400 of every 100,000 inhabitants losing their jobs.

But this trend is not unique to the Canary Islands, nor indeed Spain. It is happening across large swathes of Europe’s economies, as legions of businesses succumb to the final straw of Europe’s largely self-inflicted energy crisis.

In the EU as a whole the number of bankruptcy declarations initiated by businesses increased substantially (26.8%) quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, reaching the highest levels on record since Eurostat began collecting EU-wide bankruptcy data in 2015. The number of bankruptcy declarations increased during all four quarters of 2022. As the Eurostat graph below shows, at the current rate of business destruction it won’t be long before businesses are closing at a faster rate than they are opening.

Line graph: Registrations of business an declarations of bankruptcies in the EU, seasonally adjusted, 2015=100, Q1 2015-Q4 2022

This trend, of course, was not hard to foresee. In August 2022, I warned that the EU’s largely self-inflicted energy crisis and resulting inflation is tipping legions of small businesses over the edge:

After reeling from one crisis to another, Europe’s heavily indebted and deeply debilitated small businesses — the backbone of the economy — face the ultimate threat from energy shortages and soaring prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

EU Technocrat Threatens Musk With “Sanctions” Unless He Stamps Out Free Speech On Twitter

January 24, 2023

EU Technocrat Threatens Musk With “Sanctions” Unless He Stamps Out Free Speech On Twitter

The battle over Twitter is often made to appear complex and chaotic, but it can all be boiled down to a simple dichotomy – It’s about the people who demand censorship in favor of the establishment narrative vs. the people who want free speech and fair rules applied to everyone equally.

Everything else is noise and distraction.

The complications arise when we try to define free speech when it comes to social media.  Private companies are not subject to many legal boundaries related to free speech rights.  This is an argument that the political left and government representatives made constantly during the massive purge of conservative and liberty oriented accounts by Big Tech companies since 2016.  And, as we saw with Twitter previous to Elon Musk’s takeover, governments took full advantage of this legal loophole in order to silence people using social media websites as middlemen.

The ongoing release of the Twitter Files proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that collusion between Big Tech and governments for the sake of censorship is a reality.  In America, at least, this is a constitutional no-no.  The fact that politicians and agencies like the FBI were actively seeking out and targeting ideological opponents and having them silenced on Twitter is a direct violation of the 1st Amendment and these people should be subject to prosecution (the FBI even shelled out at least $3 million to Twitter for services rendered).

Prosecution might never happen, but at least the evidence is undeniable today after years of the public being lied to.

The reality that Twitter was acting as an enforcement agent for government censorship around the world tells us exactly why so many establishment officials have been up in arms over Musk’s purchase of the platform…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

In 2022, the world as we knew it ended. Decades of conflict lie ahead

January 8, 2023

In 2022, the world as we knew it ended. Decades of conflict lie ahead

The ‘end of history’ has concluded and the world has returned to conflicts between ‘great powers’. Let’s hope it doesn’t turn nuclear By Ivan Timofeev, Valdai Club Programme Director & one of Russia’s leading foreign policy experts.© Getty Images / erhui1979

In 1989, the ‘short 20th century’ concluded with the ‘end of history’ – the victory of the Western capitalist world over the Soviet socialist project. At that time, there was not a single country, or community, left in the world which offered a realistic alternative to the US-led view of the organization of the economy, society, and the political system.

The Soviet bloc dissolved itself. A large part of it quickly integrated into NATO and the European Union. Other major world players had begun to integrate organically into the Western-centered world system long before the end of the Cold War. China retained a high level of sovereignty in terms of its domestic order, but quickly moved into a capitalist economy, actively trading with the US, EU, and the rest of the world.

Beijing, meanwhile, shied away from promoting the socialist project abroad. India had avoided claiming global projects of its own, although it has, to this day, also maintained a high level of identity in its political system and has so far shied away from joining blocs and alliances. Other major players also remained within the rules of the ‘liberal world order’ game, avoiding attempts to challenge it.

Individual rebels, such as Iran and North Korea, did not pose much of a threat, although they raised concerns with their stubborn resistance, persistent promotion of nuclear programs, successful adaptation to sanctions, and for the most part, any potential military attack was ruled out because of its high cost. For a brief period, it seemed that the global challenge might come from radical Islamism. But it could not shake the existing order either.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Poland’s central bank predicts double-digit inflation until 2024

November 22, 2022

Image: Poland’s central bank predicts double-digit inflation until 2024

(Natural News) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has predicted that the Central European nation will be saddled with high inflation for the next two years.

According to the NBP, yearly inflation will hit 14.5 percent in 2022 and drop to 13.1 percent in 2023. Single-digit rates will only begin by 2024, when the country’s inflation is projected to decrease to 5.9 percent. The central bank’s inflation target of 2.5 percent is only expected to be accomplished in 2025.

Figures from Statistics Poland (GUS) showed that inflation in the country hit 17.2 percent in September, and increased to 17.9 percent in October.

The NBP also forecast a 0.7 percent growth in Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2022. Meanwhile, the GUS predicts a 1.4 percent GDP growth in 2023 and a flat two percent GDP growth in 2024.

Amid all these projections, economic activity in Poland is about to weaken because of the heightened uncertainty, a tightening of financing settings and the economy’s adjustment to higher commodity costs, according to the European Commission’s latest economic forecast.

“The Polish economy continued its upward trajectory in the first half of 2022, although a marked drop in inventories and investment led to a contraction in real GDP in the second quarter. Data on the real economy suggest that growth was at full steam in the third quarter, with industrial output and retail sales expanding at a solid pace. As a result, despite a deterioration in confidence indicators, the second half of the year is expected to see a relatively good performance, leaving annual real GDP growth in 2022 at a projected 4.0 percent,” the European Commission (EC) report said.

Increase in inflation due to rise in food and energy prices

As stated by the NBP’s November report on inflation, the present increase can be largely attributed to the rise in food and energy prices brought by the war in Ukraine and the enormous increase in money printing by global central banks during the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe May See Forced De-Industrialization As Result Of Energy Crisis

November 14, 2022

Europe May See Forced De-Industrialization As Result Of Energy Crisis

  • European industries including ferroalloys, fertilizer plants and specialty chemicals are shutting down as a result of the ongoing energy crisis.
  • Certain industries may not come back, even if the energy crisis eases.
  • An increasingly tight regulatory environment is another reason for de-industrialization in Europe.

The European Union has been quietly celebrating a consistent decline in gas and electricity consumption this year amid record-breaking prices, a cutoff of much of the Russian gas supply, and a liquidity crisis in the energy market.

Yet the cause for celebration is dubious: businesses are not just curbing their energy use and continuing on a business-as-usual basis. They are shutting down factories, downsizing, or relocating. Europe may well be on the way to deindustrialization.

That the European Union is heading for a recession is now quite clear to anyone watching the indicators. The latest there—eurozone manufacturing activity—fell to the lowest since May 2020.

The October reading for S&P Global’s PMI also signaled a looming recession, falling on the month and being the fourth monthly reading below 50—an indication of an economic contraction.

In perhaps worse news, however, German conglomerate BASF said last month it would permanently downside in its home country and expand in China. The announcement served as a blow to a government trying to juggle energy shortages with climate goals without extending the lives of nuclear power plants.

“The European chemical market has been growing only weakly for about a decade [and] the significant increase in natural gas and power prices over the course of this year is putting pressure on chemical value chains,” said BASF’s chief executive, Martin Brudermueller, as quoted by the FT, in late October.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Oil Prices Are Primed To Spike This Winter

November 9, 2022

Oil Prices Are Primed To Spike This Winter

  • The EU embargo on seaborne Russian crude oil exports and the G7 price cap on Russian oil are both less than a month away.
  • While a global economic slowdown and weak oil demand in China have capped prices, looming supply disruptions will likely send oil prices higher.
  • A lack of refinery capacity and crude oil disruptions will drive the price of fuels higher as well, particularly the price of diesel.

Less than a month from now, an embargo on seaborne Russian crude oil exports to the European Union will come into effect. As a result, global oil supply is set to tighten considerably as Russia is the biggest oil and fuels exporter in the world. And the market is preparing.

Hedge funds once again like oil, and are buying it on the futures market in considerable volumes, according to Reuters’ John Kemp. Last week, the buying reached 22 million barrels of Brent crude and 15 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate.

India is buying Russian crude at a discount, so it is buying a lot: its share of Middle Eastern oil imports fell to the lowest in 19 months in September, according to new data. Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as India’s number-two supplier after Iraq.

China is also buying Russian oil and not giving any indications it’s going to stop when the embargo enters into effect. The same is true of the G7 price cap for Russian crude that should also be coming into effect in a few weeks. China has already stated this will not change its current oil-buying habits.

Yet, with an EU embargo and a G7 price cap, what will almost certainly happen by the end of the year is that oil will become more expensive than it is now. Perhaps more worryingly, fuels – especially diesel…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Norway’s Top Energy Exec Warns EU’s Supply Crunch Won’t Be Solved With Price Caps

October 29, 2022

Norway’s Top Energy Exec Warns EU’s Supply Crunch Won’t Be Solved With Price Caps

EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson said Wednesday that natural gas price caps could limit excessive price spikes but only if countries give Brussels the power to impose such a measure. Norway’s top energy firm responded to the proposal in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, saying price caps won’t solve Europe’s supply crunch.

Earlier this week, Simson, the bloc’s energy chief, said a NatGas price cap would limit price spikes this winter. The official said the measure would be a “last resort measure” if prices uncontrollably soared.

“This Dutch TTF gas benchmark cap, we can introduce this winter already if we get the mandate,” Simson told a committee of EU lawmakers.

Responding to the EU mulling over the idea of a price cap on wholesale NatGas, Equinor Chief Executive Officer Anders Opedal told Bloomberg:

“Any price cap is not really solving the fundamental problems. 

“In fact, it can be counterproductive increasing demand while supply is not increasing.” 

Since the war in Ukraine and dwindling Russian NatGas supplies to Europe, Norway has displaced Russia as the top NatGas supplier. Rejiggering energy supply chains away from Russia will mean the EU must increase investments in the grid — though price caps deter such investments by energy firms.

And it’s not just investments. Price caps can also cause demand for NatGas to artificially rise or leave some countries struggling to attract supply from global markets. These measures, if implemented, could cause undesirable disruptions to global energy markets.

For Europe, there is good news (for now). Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through at least mid-November. Also, NatGas storage in the EU is 91% full despite reduced NatGas flows.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe’s Energy Crisis May Not End Until 2024

October 22, 2022

Europe’s Energy Crisis May Not End Until 2024

  • The EU gas storage units are nearly full giving some relief to fears of shortages
  • Challenges remain for the continent’s energy security as winter arrives
  • The challenges will persist into the winter of 2023-24.

The worst energy security fears of spring and summer as regards the coming winter in the European Union-EU, have been somewhat allayed. Earlier this year when war broke out in Ukraine and it became clear that the conflict would drag on for months, if not years, the EU appeared perilously in danger of a winter “Polar-Geddon,” as cold air gripped the continent. Largely forgotten and retired gas storage caverns, that hadn’t been filled in the expectation of a steady supply from Russia via the Nordstream I and II pipelines, suddenly were thrust front and center into the public eye.  Troubles often come in twos. The next shoe to drop was the deflation of expectations of much of the EU electric grid base load being met by wind and solar farms, when the elements refused to cooperate. Beginning in the middle of last year, it was noted that the wind wasn’t blowing and the output of solar farms was less than predicted. These two events appeared ready to converge upon the EU and presenting it with a stark, and chilly future for the winter of 2022-23.

As is often the case, the fullness of time alleviated the worst fears as energy leaders in the countries that make up the EU, sprang into action. They turned to Norway for an additional 90 bn cubic meters of gas to begin filling the storage caverns. The infrastructure was in place, it was just a matter of price…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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