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Rising Interest Rates: New Era with Tough Outcomes
Rising Interest Rates: New Era with Tough Outcomes What will the bond market do? The conniptions in the Treasury market are causing pain in existing portfolios but offer opportunities down the road. What’s the impact of these rising interest rates on the housing bubbles in the US and Canada? Where is the pain threshold? […]
“Financial Stress” Spikes. Markets, Long in Denial, Suddenly Grapple with New Era
“Financial Stress” Spikes. Markets, Long in Denial, Suddenly Grapple with New Era Fed’s monetary policy shift is finally taking hold. It just took a while. The weekly St. Louis Fed Financial Stress index, released today, just spiked beautifully. It had been at historic lows back in November, an expression of ultra-loose financial conditions in the […]
Four Rate Hikes in 2018 as US National Debt Will Spike
Four Rate Hikes in 2018 as US National Debt Will Spike Chorus gets louder. But no one will be ready for those mortgage rates. It didn’t take long for rate-hike expectations to be jostled further by last week’s “monster” two-year budget bill that Congress passed with its usual gyrations, including a government mini-shutdown, and that […]
How to Manipulate Stocks: Chinese Authorities Step in to Stop the Rout
How to Manipulate Stocks: Chinese Authorities Step in to Stop the Rout For proper effect, the directives were purposefully leaked to the media. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged 10.2% last week, the largest weekly drop in two years, and was down 11.4% since January 26. But it wasn’t just last week that things became unglued. […]
The State of the American Debt Slaves
The State of the American Debt Slaves It was one gigantic party. But wait… Total consumer credit rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter, year over year, to a record $3.84 trillion not seasonally adjusted, according to the Federal Reserve. This includes credit-card debt, auto loans, and student loans, but not mortgage-related debt. December had been […]
So What Do I Think about the “Crash” in Stocks?
So What Do I Think about the “Crash” in Stocks? A lot more will have to happen before this turns into a crash; and markets are not there yet. With all this wailing in the media about stocks, you’d think there’s at least some blood in the streets. But no. Not a drop. The Dow […]
Fed’s QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply
Fed’s QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply With a sense of urgency. No more dilly-dallying around. The Fed’s balance sheet for the week ending January 31, released this afternoon, completes the fourth month of QE-unwind. And it’s starting to be a doozie. This “balance sheet normalization” impacts two types of assets: Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities […]
US National Debt Will Jump by $617 Billion in 5 Months
US National Debt Will Jump by $617 Billion in 5 Months Just as the Fed accelerates its QE Unwind. Treasuries reacted. While everyone is trying to figure out how to twist the new tax cut to their advantage and save some money, the US Treasury Department just announced how much net new debt it will […]
What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings?
What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings? Or what the averages are hiding. We will start with income and see what’s left over, and for whom. Personal income increased by 4.1% in December from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. This […]
Why the Next Downturn “Will Not Look Like 2008”
Why the Next Downturn “Will Not Look Like 2008” Nine years of scorched-earth monetary policies come home to roost. There are always cycles. The current cycle started at the bottom of the Great Recession and will last “until central banks put on the brakes,” said Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, in an interview with […]
The ‘Everything Bubble’ and What Happens if Credit Freezes Up in a Credit-Based Economy
The ‘Everything Bubble’ and What Happens if Credit Freezes Up in a Credit-Based Economy “It could get really messy.” Wolf Richter on the X22 Report The US government bond market has soured, even the 10-year yield is surging, and mortgage rates have jumped. Read… What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?
What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?
What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2? Oops, they’re already rising. The US government bond market has further soured this week, with Treasuries selling off across the spectrum. When bond prices fall, yields rise. For example, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 2.06% on Friday, the highest since September 2008. In the […]
Bond Market Smells Inflation, Begins to React
Bond Market Smells Inflation, Begins to React Inflation expectations now exceed the Fed’s target. The 10-year US Treasury yield breached 2.5% on January 9 and hasn’t looked back since, closing on Friday at 2.55%. The three year yield closed at 2.12%, the highest since October 2008. The two year yield, after breaching 2% on Friday […]
Chap. 11 Bankruptcies Spike 107% from Year Ago
Chap. 11 Bankruptcies Spike 107% from Year Ago What caused the biggest jump since the Financial Crisis? New Chapter 11 bankruptcies in the US more than doubled in December 2017 from a year ago to 699 filings. That jump of 362 filings from December 2016 was the largest year-over-year jump since the Financial Crisis. This […]
QE Party Over, even by the Bank of Japan
QE Party Over, even by the Bank of Japan First decline in its colossal balance sheet since 2012. An amazing – or on second thought, given how central banks operate, not so amazing – thing is happening. On one hand… Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda keeps saying that the BOJ would “patiently” maintain its […]
