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Tag Archives: debt
What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?
What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis? The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%. 10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%. The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%. Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since […]
Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary Tsunami
Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary Tsunami Those looking up from their “free fish!” frolicking will see the tsunami too late to save themselves. It’s an amazing sight to see the water recede from the bay, and watch the crowd frolic in the shallows, scooping up the flopping fish. In this case, the crowd […]
The Global Financial End-Game
The Global Financial End-Game The over-indebted, overcapacity global economy an only generate speculative asset bubbles that will implode, destroying the latest round of phantom collateral. For those seeking a summary, here is the global financial endgame in fourteen points: 1. In the initial “boost phase” of credit expansion, credit-based capital ( i.e. debt-money) pours into […]
28 trillion reasons to have a Plan B
28 trillion reasons to have a Plan B At the close of business on Monday March 1st, just a few days ago, the US national debt crossed $28 trillion for the first time in history. To the penny, in fact, the national debt hit $28,004,376,276,999.35. And bear in mind that figure doesn’t include the $1.9 […]
Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable
Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable How much energy, water and food will the “money” created out of thin air in the future buy? Finance is often cloaked in arcane terminology and math, but the one dynamic that governs the future is actually very simple. Here it is: all debt is borrowed against […]
Hot Money
Hot Money I watched the new documentary Hot Money by Susan Kucera tonight. An intelligent world-wise father (General Wesley Clark) and his son discuss some of the problems we face with many smart participants. I don’t think they interviewed a single idiot, which was refreshing. They know something is seriously wrong and make an honest attempt to […]
Who Bought the $4.5 Trillion Added in One Year to the Incredibly Spiking US National Debt, Now at $27.9 Trillion?
Who Bought the $4.5 Trillion Added in One Year to the Incredibly Spiking US National Debt, Now at $27.9 Trillion? Someone had to buy every dollar of this monstrous debt. Here’s Who. The Fed isn’t the only one. But China continues to unwind its holdings. Driven by stimulus and bailouts, and fired up by the […]
The Only Way Out of the Death Trap
The Only Way Out of the Death Trap I’ve said the U.S. is caught in a debt death trap. Monetary policy won’t get us out because the velocity of money, the rate at which money changes hands, is dropping. Printing more money alone will not change that. Fiscal policy won’t work either because of high […]
Update on Fed’s QE: The Crybabies on Wall Street, which Clamored for More, Are Disappointed
Update on Fed’s QE: The Crybabies on Wall Street, which Clamored for More, Are Disappointed And five SPVs expired, including the one that bought corporate bonds and bond ETFs. The Fed has now put on ice five of its SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) which had been designed back in March to bail out the bond […]
Weekly Commentary: Short-Term Unsustainable
Weekly Commentary: Short-Term Unsustainable Outstanding Treasury Securities began 2008 at $6.051 TN, or 41% of GDP. Treasuries ended 2019 at $19.019 TN, or 87% of GDP. And then, in only three quarters, Treasuries surged another $3.882 TN to $22.900 TN, or 108% of GDP. We must wait a few weeks for the Fed’s Q4 Z.1 […]
The Markets in Light of the Chaos
The Markets in Light of the Chaos When we look around the world the final say in every election is always the vote of capital – which is international rather than confined to local politics. Biden has already shut down the pipeline from Alberta which will only be symbolic for whatever substitute will mere be […]
‘Spend as much as you can,’ IMF head urges governments worldwide
‘Spend as much as you can,’ IMF head urges governments worldwide MOSCOW (Reuters) – Policymakers worldwide should embrace more spending to help revive their stuttering economies, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Friday at Russia’s annual Gaidar economic forum. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva did not give any specific economic forecasts, but made […]
Interest Rate Tremors May Spell Disaster for the Dollar
Interest Rate Tremors May Spell Disaster for the Dollar Banksy As the U.S. plunges further into debt beyond a staggering $27 trillion, the dollar’s time is running out. But the problem is much deeper than that. With inflation on the rise, and long-term bond yields rising in concert with massive debt, some disturbing scenarios could develop that spell trouble for […]
How Will This Unwind? Amid Stimulus, Forbearance, Eviction Bans, Consumer Bankruptcies Dropped to Lowest in Decades. Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcies Highest in Years
How Will This Unwind? Amid Stimulus, Forbearance, Eviction Bans, Consumer Bankruptcies Dropped to Lowest in Decades. Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcies Highest in Years Weirdest Economy Ever, as 20 million people still claim unemployment benefits. Total bankruptcy filings by consumers and businesses in the US in 2020, across all chapters of bankruptcies, plunged by 30% from […]
This Time Is Not Different. More Debt, Less Growth
This Time Is Not Different. More Debt, Less Growth I remember that in 2009 three messages were constantly repeated: “In this crisis measures are different, because governments are investing in the recovery by increasing public spending,” “the funds from stimulus plans will strengthen the recovery “and “central banks help a stronger recovery by lowering rates […]
