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Inflation v Deflation–State Finances
INFLATION V DEFLATION – STATE FINANCES There is a general belief, and that is all it is, that state finances fare better in an inflationary environment than a deflationary one. This perception arises from the transfer of wealth from lenders to the state through a devaluation of the currency, which occurs with monetary inflation, compared […]
China–Leading Indicator? Stocks, Credit Policy, Rebalancing and Money Supply
CHINA – LEADING INDICATOR? STOCKS, CREDIT POLICY, REBALANCING AND MONEY SUPPLY Chinese 10yr bond yields have been rising steadily since October 2016. They never reached the low or negative levels of Japan or Germany. 1yr bonds bottomed earlier at 1.76% in June 2015 having tested 1% back in 2009. The pattern and path of Chinese […]
The Fed’s Great Unwind: Will It Sink Us?
THE FED’S GREAT UNWIND: WILL IT SINK US? In the eyes of many people, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is an indispensable institution. We are told it supports growth and employment, fends off the negative shocks, and fights inflation. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The Fed’s fiat money regime is economically and socially highly […]
Are Economic Crises Inherent to Market Economies?
ARE ECONOMIC CRISES INHERENT TO MARKET ECONOMIES? It is interesting to note that Marx, in his analysis of the capitalist economic system, basically concentrates on the study of the imbalances and maladjustments which occur in the market. This accounts for the fact that Marxist theory is primarily a theory of market disequilibrium and that occasionally […]
Pool of Funding the Heart of Economic Growth
POOL OF FUNDING THE HEART OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Most experts are of the view that massive monetary pumping by the US central bank, the Fed, during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the World from another Great Depression. If increases in money supply is an important catalyst for economic growth then the World […]
It’s More Than Just the Absences of Acceleration, It’s the Synchronization Where There Should Be None
IT’S MORE THAN JUST THE ABSENCE OF ACCELERATION, IT’S THE SYNCHRONIZATION WHERE THERE SHOULD BE NONE BY JEFFREY P. SNIDER According to the latest ECB figures, as of yesterday total “liquidity” added to the European banking system for that central bank’s ongoing monetary “stimulus” was just shy of €2 trillion. The outstanding balance in the […]
Cradles of Capitalism: The City-States of Greece and Italy
CRADLES OF CAPITALISM: THE CITY-STATES OF GREECE AND ITALY There long has been a persistent academic debate as to whether an “ancient economy,” referring mainly to Greece, even existed at all. In a field dominated by Marx, Marxists, the 19th century sociologist Max Weber, and such scholars of renown as Sir Moses Finley, the lingering image […]
It Was This Big
IT WAS THIS BIG A theme which frequently pops up in current financial and economic commentary is that of the burgeoning levels of outstanding debt under which all too many nations are said to groan. Typically, reference will be made to the percentage of GDP which this mountain of obligations entails, usually by way of putting […]
Are markets Really as Calm as They Seem?
ARE MARKETS REALLY AS CALM AS THEY SEEM? Indicators for financial market “stress” have reached their lowest levels in decades. For instance, stock market volatility has never been this low since the early 1990s. Credit spreads have been shrinking, and prices for credit default swaps have fallen to pre-crisis levels. In fact, investors are no […]
Deflation Must Be Embraced
DEFLATION MUST BE EMBRACED There are two problems with understanding deflation: it is ill defined, and it has a bad name. This article puts deflation into its proper context. This is an important topic for advocates of gold as money, who will be aware that sound money, in theory, leads to lower prices over time […]
Will Macro-Economists Ever Learn?
WILL MACRO-ECONOMISTS EVER LEARN? As we lurch through successive credit crises, central bankers and economists believe they learn valuable lessons every time, and that the ultimate prize, the suppression of business cycles through monetary policy, will be achieved. We saw, over Brexit, how wrong the Bank of England’s and the UK Treasury’s models were, and […]
Benn Steil: The Fed Could be Tightening More Than it Realizes
BENN STEIL: THE FED COULD BE TIGHTENING MORE THAN IT REALIZES Ten years ago, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers rocked global financial markets, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $925 billion—mostly U.S. Treasuries. After fifty-nine months of asset purchases to push down longer-term interest rates, it had ballooned to a peak of $4.5 trillion, […]
Cryptos May Destabilise Fiat
CRYPTOS MAY DESTABILISE FIAT The assumption in some quarters is that crypto-currencies will replace gold as money, or at least challenge it. This is an error borne out of a misunderstanding of catallactics, or the theory of exchange. It also ignores the fact that beyond a few European countries and North America, gold is firmly […]
Is There a Way Out of the ECB’s Trap?
IS THERE ANY WAY OUT OF THE ECB’S TRAP? The ECB faces the Devil’s Alternative that Frederick Forsyth mentioned in one of his books. All options are potentially riskly. Mario Draghi knows that maintaining the so-called stimuli involves more risks than benefits, but also knows that eliminating them could make the eurozone deck of cards collapse. […]
