This Week In Energy: Why Anything Can Happen in 2015.
The New Year is upon us but oil prices are carrying on the trend from the second half of 2014 and continuing to drop, with the thirteenth negative week from the last 14 and lows not seen since 2009. With early morning volatility seeing rises of 3.5% and subsequent falls of 2.3%, trader concerns over the continuing supply glut are outweighing any early positioning opportunities in the New Year. Energy stocks overall on Wall Street were the worst performing of 2014 with a drop of over 9%, but utilities had been performing surprisingly well through December before a 4% drop at year’s close to finish 2014 up by 28%. With approximately 40% of U.S. power generation now coming from natural gas, an increase of 28% over recent years, gas-based utilities look poised to be early over-achievers this year.
If current energy and currency market trends continue, 2015 could prove to be a huge year for the United States as a combination of weaker commodity prices, a strong dollar, and steady economic growth, especially in a global context, create huge foreign flows coming into the U.S. market which could all potentially lead to the fastest pace growth in a decade. The U.S. Dollar has continued its strong performance at the end of 2014, and this week has hit its highest level since March 2006. Problems for competitor economies in Asia and Europe have resulted in the dollar index, which measures dollar strength against several other major currencies, reporting 9 year highs of 90.90 as of this morning.
