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How to Be a Producer In a Nation of Consumers
How to Be a Producer In a Nation of Consumers In this world, there are two kinds of people. You can be a consumer or you can be a producer. Neither one is inherently good or bad – these are just descriptive terms. You can produce 100% of your own food and have a terrible […]
The Crisis of Capital
The Crisis of Capital These three dynamics render capital increasingly vulnerable to catastrophic losses as backstops and distorted markets fail. The undeniable reality of the 21st century economy is that capital has gained while labor has stagnated. While various critics quibbled about his methodology, Thomas Piketty’s core finding–that capital expanded faster than GDP and wages/salaries […]
Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize”
Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize” Last week, I highlighted that since ’00, when the Federal Reserve has ceased adding to its balance sheet or begun “normalizing” (via rolling off assets), equity markets have swooned (detailed HERE). A simple idea today…that the end of population growth (where it matters) has long been upon […]
2018 in Review: Pension Problems, Hawkish Rate Hikes, and Piles of Debt
2018 in Review: Pension Problems, Hawkish Rate Hikes, and Piles of Debt A lot happened in 2018, and while it would be a challenge to cover them all, there are three big trends that appear to have defined this year economically. And, each of them had an impact on retirees, investors, and the overall U.S. […]
Murky 2019 Could Be In Store for U.S. Economy Thanks to Fed’s Monetary Policy
Murky 2019 Could Be In Store for U.S. Economy Thanks to Fed’s Monetary Policy December 19 marks the day the Fed may have decided it’s going “all in” on the idea of a “strong U.S. economy.” The Fed locked in an increase of the Federal Funds Rate from 2.25% to 2.40%, and it will increase […]
Tomgram: Nomi Prins, Cooking the Books in the Trump Universe
Tomgram: Nomi Prins, Cooking the Books in the Trump Universe There’s a clear pattern to Donald Trump’s life. Put simply: he gets away with it. Yes, sometimes (but not usually) he has to pay a penalty, but generally he has a knack for leaving others holding the bag. He’s stiffed untold numbers of people (plumbers, […]
The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions
The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions Darts in a Blizzard Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings. We bring words of doom and despair. We bring words of contemplation and reflection. And we also bring words of hope and sunshine. Famous […]
Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet
Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet All better now. It’s a Christmas miracle, the plunge erased by market closure as if FDR had just been re-elected and taken the oath. The Dow is on everyone’s mind, so trading on December 26 has understandably stuck. Stocks posted their best day in […]
Canadian Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Near Record High
Canadian Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Near Record High “Households with elevated levels of debt are more vulnerable to increases in interest rates”, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation redundantly observes in its latest bulletin and warns that “with interest rates on the rise, highly indebted households could see their increased required payments exceed their budgets.” Naturally, […]
El-Erian: 1000-Point Swings In The Dow Are The “New Reality”
El-Erian: 1000-Point Swings In The Dow Are The “New Reality” While even some of the most dogged bulls are throwing in the towel on their optimistic forecasts for the US (see Goldman taking the axe to its 2019 GDP forecast noted earlier), there are those who steadfastly believe that 2019 will be a solid year […]
A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth
A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth A simple idea today…that the end of population growth (where it matters) is upon us. Absent population growth among the nations that do nearly all the consuming, a debt based economic and financial system can’t ultimately succeed. That is, without growth, assets generally don’t appreciate and debt is generally […]
Which Side Are You On?
Which Side Are You On? You had to love the narrative that the financial media put over about the 1000-plus point zoom in the DJIA on Wednesday: that pension funds were “rebalancing” their portfolios. It dredged up the image of a drowning man at the bottom of the deep blue sea with an anchor in […]
Kass: “Don’t Blame Powell For The Mess He’s Left To Clean Up”
Kass: “Don’t Blame Powell For The Mess He’s Left To Clean Up” Do we want to be Japan? “I need the Fed to shut up. I don’t trust the Fed at all. I don’t trust Jay Powell at all. Jay said everything that caused a tremendous selloff. You have got to start recognizing how powerful […]
What Is Behind The Market’s Record Liquidity Collapse
What Is Behind The Market’s Record Liquidity Collapse One week ago, when we first previewed this week’s infamous $60 billion pension fund rebalancing out of equities and into bonds which resulted in historic market gyrations, and a violent snapback in the S&P from what was shaping up to be the worst December on record for […]
The Depression of 2019-2021?
The Depression of 2019-2021? The profound question which transcends all this day-to-day market drama over the holidays is the nature of the economic slowdown now occurring globally. This slowdown can be seen both inside and outside the US. In reviewing the laboratory of history — especially those experiments featuring severe asset inflation, unaccompanied by high […]
