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Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT December’s market instability and resulting Fed capitulation to the marketplace continue to reverberate. At this point, markets basically assume the Fed is well into the process of terminating policy normalization. Only a couple of months since completing its almost $3.0 TN stimulus program, markets now expect the ECB […]
As The Perfect Storm Approaches, Most Americans Are Partying Instead Of Preparing
As The Perfect Storm Approaches, Most Americans Are Partying Instead Of Preparing I can’t think of a time when Americans were more apathetic about getting prepared, and yet this is exactly the time when the urgency to get prepared should be at the highest. Earlier today, my wife Meranda and I were discussing the fact […]
Bubble 3.0: No Way Out
BUBBLE 3.0: NO WAY OUT “We’re paddling against the current in trying to sustain public faith in the Fed.”–Federal Reserve Chairman JEROME (JAY) POWELL “The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s key rate-setting entity) is in panic mode now, facing the Frankenstein monster balance sheet it has created. The FOMC has come to the […]
Wall Street Loses Faith In Shale
Wall Street Loses Faith In Shale To Wall Street, the shale industry has lost a lot of its allure. A decade’s worth of promises have failed to materialize, and Big Finance is cutting some of its ties with smaller shale drillers who have not delivered. The Wall Street Journal reports that the shale industry only saw $22 […]
You Can’t Stop the Cycle
You Can’t Stop the Cycle 2018’s valuation records are astounding in that they show the S&P 500 to be more fundamentally over-valued than it was at the prior two historic stock market valuation peaks in 1929 and 2000, bona fide speculative manias. – From Crescat Capital’s recent investor letter Cycles are perhaps the most natural and […]
Luke Gromen–Oil Cartel Siding With China Can Destabilize The Petrodollar
LUKE GROMEN – OIL CARTEL SIDING WITH CHINA CAN DESTABILIZE THE PETRODOLLAR SBTV picks the mind of Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees LLC, about an impending dollar crisis and what likely scenarios can destabilize the petrodollar in the coming years. We also asked him what his ideal monetary system would be if he got […]
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT
Weekly Commentary: Dudley on Debt and MMT December’s market instability and resulting Fed capitulation to the marketplace continue to reverberate. At this point, markets basically assume the Fed is well into the process of terminating policy normalization. Only a couple of months since completing its almost $3.0 TN stimulus program, markets now expect the ECB […]
Census Bureau, Treasury, EIA Detail American Insolvency
Census Bureau, Treasury, EIA Detail American Insolvency Since 2007, US births and net immigration have consistently and unexpectedly fallen sharply. Over the same span, US federal debt and unfunded liabilities have soared while federal tax receipts, as a percentage of the federal debt and unfunded liabilities, continue declining. Total US energy consumption also peaked in ’07 and continues […]
Central Bank Balance Sheet Reductions–Will Anyone Follow the Fed?
CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET REDUCTIONS – WILL ANYONE FOLLOW THE FED? The next wave of QE will be different, credit spreads will be controlled The Federal Reserve may continue to tighten but few other CB’s can follow ECB balance sheet reduction might occur if a crisis does not arrive first Interest rates are likely to […]
What Does It Mean to Have Predicted an Economic Event?
What Does It Mean to Have Predicted an Economic Event? Consider the never-ending argument about whether certain economists did or did not predict the financial crisis in 2007-8. It raises all kinds of methodological questions in economics reaching back much further than Milton Friedman’s famous 1966 paper conceiving of economics as a predictive science. Here’s the fundamental conundrum: […]
Highway to the Danger Zone
Highway to the Danger Zone On Thursday markets nearly broke their uptrend from the December lows, but once again a magic Friday overnight gap up driven by renewed hopes for an imminent China-US trade deal and supported by 9 Fed speakers trampling all over themselves to out dove each other alongside a flood of buyback […]
Stupidity Well Anchored: Absurdity of Inflation Expectations in Graphic Form
Stupidity Well Anchored: Absurdity of Inflation Expectations in Graphic Form The amount of sheer nonsense written about inflation expectations is staggering. Let’s take a look at some recent articles before making a mockery of them with a single picture. by Mish Expectations Problem On July 17, 2017, Rich Miller writing for Bloomberg proclaimed The Fed Has an […]
We’re Living In ‘The Groundhog Show’
We’re Living In ‘The Groundhog Show’ In which our leaders make the same mistakes over & over. It’s said that truth mirrors fiction. I’m finding this to be the case more and more these days. Take the 1993 comedy Groundhog Day. Bill Murray wakes up each day to relieve the exact same daily circumstances and interpersonal interactions. He […]
The return to a gold exchange standard
The return to a gold exchange standard This article makes the obvious point that a return to a gold standard is the only way nations can contain the interest cost of servicing debt, given the alternative is inflationist policies that can only lead to far higher interest rates and currency destruction. The topic is timely, […]
The Utterly Unbelievable Scale of U.S. Debt Right Now
The Utterly Unbelievable Scale of U.S. Debt Right Now – Last week, the United States national debt ticked above US$22 trillion for the first time, an amount equivalent to $67,000 per U.S. citizen – The U.S. federal government owes more money than any other institution in the history of human civilization and it’s just getting […]
