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Can Expectations Undo the Validity of the Mises’s Business Cycle Theory?
CAN EXPECTATIONS UNDO THE VALIDITY OF THE MISES’S BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY? According to Ludwig von Mises’s Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), the artificial lowering of interest rates by the central bank leads to a misallocation of resources due to the fact that businesses undertake various capital projects that prior to the lowering of interest rates […]
Low Yield, No Yield, Negative Yield–Buy Now But Don’t Forget to Sell
LOW YIELD, NO YIELD, NEGATIVE YIELD – BUY NOW BUT DON’T FORGET TO SELL The amount of negative yielding fixed securities has hit a new record The Federal Reserve and the ECB are expected to resume easing of interest rates Secondary market liquidity for many fixed income securities is dying Outstanding debt is setting all-time […]
Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World
Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World July 11 – Bloomberg (Rich Miller): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is starting to sound a bit like he’s the world’s central banker. In Congressional testimony this week, he repeatedly cited a slower global economic expansion in laying out the case for easier U.S. monetary policy. ‘There’s something […]
“It’s Time To Say Goodbye To The Rally In Everything”
“It’s Time To Say Goodbye To The Rally In Everything” It was nice while it lasted but the “Rally in Everything” inspired by the dovish Federal Reserve is likely coming to an end — thanks to the dovish Federal Reserve. U.S. bonds and stocks have climbed together for most of 2019 as expectations for Fed […]
How Long Can Artificially Low Interest Rates be Maintained?
How Long Can Artificially Low Interest Rates be Maintained? QUESTION: Dear Martin, First let me thank you for your paradigm shifting blog and the incredible conferences you and your team put together. They really are on a level all their own. As we approach the next turning points in the ECM it seems that there […]
Turkey’s Erdogan Vows To “Significantly” Cut Rates As Trump Set To Roll Out Sanctions Over S-400 Purchase
Turkey’s Erdogan Vows To “Significantly” Cut Rates As Trump Set To Roll Out Sanctions Over S-400 Purchase Lately not a week passes without some dismal news involving Turkey hitting the tape, and yet the lira continues to levitate, blissfully ignorant of the storm clouds headed for Ankara, levitating on hopes the Fed will cut rates […]
The Four Dimensions of the Fake Money Order
The Four Dimensions of the Fake Money Order A Good Story with Minor Imperfections “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” is a quote that’s oft misattributed to Lewis Carrol. The fact that there is ambiguity about who is behind this quote on ambiguity seems fitting. For our purposes […]
Retail Apocalypse: 12,000 Stores Are Forecasted To Close This Year
Retail Apocalypse: 12,000 Stores Are Forecasted To Close This Year As the economy cycles down through summer, there is new, alarming data that shows retail store closings are accelerating. Coresight Research says there have already been 20% more store closings announced in the first six months of 2019 than in all of 2018. The research firm examined figures and […]
De-Dollarizing the American Financial Empire
De-Dollarizing the American Financial Empire Guest: Michael Hudson Economist Michael Hudson continues his discussion of Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire with a focus on US monetary imperialism; President Trump’s demand for lower interest rates undercuts America’s requirement for foreign investment to fund its domestic and balance of payments deficit, increases the carry […]
DHL Sounds Alarm On Collapsing World Trade: “Significant Downturn” Underway
DHL Sounds Alarm On Collapsing World Trade: “Significant Downturn” Underway A new quarterly report from logistics company DHL, measured global air and sea cargo trade volumes between March and June, found trade data continues to deteriorate in the US and China as there is still no resolution to end the trade war, reported South China Morning Post(SCMP). Chinese […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 11 2019 – Man on the Moon Day!
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 11 2019 – Man on the Moon Day! “The Sky is not the limit – there are footprints on the Moon.” So many choices for this morning’s quote. The classic Armstrong “One Step” was too obvious. I did think about “To infinity and beyond”. But the one I chose is […]
Core Consumer Price Inflation Prints Hotter Than Expected
Core Consumer Price Inflation Prints Hotter Than Expected Having slowed and disappointed for the last two months, all eyes are on US consumer price index growth (which was expected to slow once again in June) this morning as the next Fed rate-cut narrative confirmation. The problem for rate-cut-hopers is that the picture is mixed at […]
Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems
Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems Economists tell us that within the economy there is a lot of substitutability, and they are correct. However, there are a couple of not-so-minor details that they overlook: There is no substitute for energy. It is possible to harness energy from another source, or to make a particular object […]
High Cost of Nukes Even Higher If Medical Expenses Included
High Cost of Nukes Even Higher If Medical Expenses Included Nuclear reactor. Hanford Nuclear Reservation. Photo: Jeffrey St. Clair. Nuclear reactors are shutting in the U.S, and across the world. Reactors have always been dangerous, but over time they have also become more expensive than ever. A 2017 report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 10 – Will Boeing trigger Crash?
Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 10 – Will Boeing trigger Crash? “Ignite blue touch paper and step back. Do not let Children play with Fireworks.” All eyes on what Powell tells Washington today, but a number of Porridge Readers called to tell me I’m wrong about summer risks! They think my expectation for a long […]
