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A Reality Check For U.S. Natural Gas Ambitions

August 1, 2015

A Reality Check For U.S. Natural Gas Ambitions

Something unusual happened while we were focused on the global oil-price collapse–the increase in U.S. shale gas production stalled (Figure 1).

Figure 1. U.S. shale gas production. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(click image to enlarge)

Total shale gas production for June was basically flat compared with May–down 900 mcf/d or -0.1% (Table 1).

Table 1. Shale gas production change table. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(click image to enlarge)

Marcellus and Utica production increased very slightly over May, 1.1 and 1.5 mmcf/d, respectively. The Woodford was up 400 mcf/d and “other” shale increased 300 mcf/d. Production in the few plays that increased totaled 3.3 mmcf/d or one fair gas well’s daily production.

Related: The Broken Payment Model That Costs The Oil Industry Millions

The rest of the shale gas plays declined. The earliest big shale gas plays–the Barnett, Fayetteville and Haynesville–were down 25%, 14% and 48% from their respective peak production levels for a total decline of -4.8 bcf/d since January 2012.

The fact that Eagle Ford and Bakken gas production declined suggests tight oil production may finally be declining as well.

To make matters worse, total U.S. dry natural gas production declined -144 mmcf/d in June compared to May, and -1.2 bcf/d compared to April (Figure 2). Marketed gas declined -117 mmcf/d compared to May and -1 bcf/d compared to April.

Figure 2. U.S. natural gas production. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

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Although year-over-year gas production has increased, the rate of growth has decreased systematically from 13% in December 2014 to 5% in June 2015 (Figure 3).

Figure 3. U.S. dry gas year-over-year production change. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

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This all comes at a time when the U.S. is using more natural gas for electric power generation. In April 2015, natural gas used to produce electricity (32% of total) exceeded coal (30% of total) for the first time (Figure 4).

 

 

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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