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Peak Oil Review – Nov 11

November 11, 2014

Peak Oil Review – Nov 11.

1.  Oil and the Global Economy

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday and Tuesday last week taking New York futures down from $81 a barrel to touch above $76 on Tuesday. Prices then recovered leaving NY oil to close out the week at $78.65, down 2.4 percent for the week and 27 percent since June. London futures performed similarly dropping from $86 to $83 on Monday andTuesday and then rising to close out the week at $83.39, down 2.9 percent for the week and 28 percent since June. The price drop on Monday and Tuesday came as the Saudis cut prices for shipments to the US. The rebound later in the week had a number of causes including much colder weather due to engulf the US this week and better jobs numbers.

As could be expected, forecasts that the polar vortex will return to the US this winter sent natural gas prices sharply higher – climbing from $3.65 per million BTUs in late October to a close of $4.41 on Friday. US natural gas production continues to break records with production in October running at 7.9 percent above last year with expectations that total US production will be above 72 billion feet per day by the end of the year. Robust production of gas this summer combined with mild weather have left US natural gas stocks only 7 percent less than the five-year average as the winter heating season starts. 

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Peak Oil Review – Oct 27

October 27, 2014

Peak Oil Review – Oct 27.

New York futures continued to slide last week closing Friday at $81.01 for the fifth weekly loss. London oil traded quietly around $86 a barrel to finish out the week at $86.13, also down for the fifth consecutive week. There has been no change in the markets’ perception that there is still too much oil chasing too little demand. The only foreseeable change in the situation will come at the November 27th OPEC meeting when we will know whether the Saudis and other Gulf Arab states will cut their production in an effort to raise prices. The other major exporters, particularly Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, are in near desperate need of all the oil revenue they can get and are unlikely to cut anything.

There was a rebound in the markets at mid-week when it was reported that Saudi sales in September were 328,000 b/d lower than in August, but the rally died when it was further reported that Saudi production had increased by 100,000 b/d last month with the rest of the oil going into storage. The weekly US stocks report showed the crude inventory increased by 7 million barrels the week before last. The stockpile at Cushing, Okla. was up a bit to 20.6 million barrels which about what is necessary for a smooth flow of futures market deliveries.

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