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How much of our gleaming new infrastructure will fall into disrepair?

The Federal Reserve has been the main cause of business cycles in America since 1913. For several decades, it has tried to hide the consequences of its policies by enabling easy credit during each recession. As Jonathan Newman wrote yesterday, pouring trillions of dollars into the financial sector obscures the external signs of the recession such as low asset prices and high unemployment and promotes economic malinvestment.

This malinvestment creates the conditions that cause the next recession. Some of the consequences of the Fed’s policies, such as stock market and housing bubbles can be directly attributed to its policies. In other cases, the artificially low interest rates and other “easy money” policies foster an “infrastructure rot” that erodes the efficiency of the American economy, the standard of living of consumers, and eats away at American infrastructure. These effects are difficult to trace back to the Fed’s policies, so let’s concretize some examples to understand how Federal Reserve policies affect America.

At the city level, low interest rates allow cities to fund new public projects such as parks and bridges. While this may seem fine and dandy, all infrastructure projects have a maintenance cost. It’s not sufficient to build a park. One must also have the money to maintain it every year. If there is not enough revenue to pay for maintenance, the park will literally rot until the playgrounds fall apart, the lawns are overgrown, the lights fail, and the park becomes too dangerous for families to play in.

The same thing will happen to streets, bridges, and plumbing. This is one of the ways urban decay happens: easy money policies fund unsustainable urban infrastructure projects which make politicians look good, but end up crumbling a few years or decades later.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World’s Biggest Ever Junk Bond Bubble in Pictures: What Hath Draghi Wrought?

October 5, 2017

World’s Biggest Ever Junk Bond Bubble in Pictures: What Hath Draghi Wrought?

In regards to ECB QE bond purchases, inquiring minds may be asking: What hath ECB president Mario Draghi wrought?

I can explain in one picture.

The answer in words: The world’s biggest junk bond bubble.

I prefer gold.

On August 4, I commented on the Bubblicious Debate: Greenspan Says “Bond Bubble About to Break”, No Stock Market Bubble

There’s a bond bubble for sure, but it’s in corporate bonds, not treasuries.

This also isn’t the first time Greenspan has expressed concern about a bond bubble. Two years ago, when the 10-year Treasury yield was 2.44% and the CPI was 0.2%, he told Bloomberg TV that “we have a pending bond market bubble.” In a Bloomberg TV interview July 2016, he expressed concerns about stagflation and said “we’re seeing the very early signs of inflation beginning to tick up.” He also said with the 10-year Treasury yield pushed down to 1.50% by Brexit concerns, that he was “nervous” bond prices were too high.

“No Irrational Exuberance in Stocks”

“There is no irrational exuberance that I can see. In fact, it is just the opposite at this stage.”

Greenspan the Contrarian Indicator

Major comments by Alan Greenspan, widely portrayed by the media are most likely perfect contrarian indicators.

He has been calling the bond market a bubble for years but only recently did he say there was no stock market bubble.

With Greenspan, one needs to be careful. He is frequently correct about some things. However, the things about which he is correct are either never widely published, or they are widely disputed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 5 Steps to World Domination

August 29, 2017

The 5 Steps to World Domination

You don’t need an army to achieve World Domination; all you need is enough cheap credit to buy up everything that generates the highest value and/or income.

World Domination–it has a nice ring, doesn’t it? Here’s how to achieve it in 5 steps:

1. Turn everything into a commodity that can be traded on the global market:land, leases on land, options to purchase land, houses, buildings, rooms in slums, labor, tools, robots, water, water rights, mineral rights, rights to air routes, ships, aircraft, political power, shares in corporations, government bonds, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, student loans that have been bundled into debt-based instruments, the income from city parking meters, electricity, software, advertising, marketing, media, social media, food, energy, insurance, gold, metals, credit, interest-rate swaps and last but not least, financial instruments that control and/or pyramid all the real-world goods and assets that have been commoditized (i.e. almost everything).

Why is this the essential first step in World Domination? Once something has been commoditized, it can be bought and sold in the global marketplace in fiat currencies–currencies that are not backed by any real-world asset and that can be created out of thin air by central and private banks.

You see the dynamic, right? Create credit-currency out of thin air, and then use this “free money” to buy up the real world. Quite a trick, isn’t it? Get a means of exchange for essentially nothing (i.e. money at near-zero interest rates) and then trade this for assets that produce goods and services everyone else needs or wants.

Now we understand steps 2 and 3:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2016 Theme #5: The Systemic Failure of High Finance

January 8, 2016

2016 Theme #5: The Systemic Failure of High Finance

This week I am addressing themes I see playing out in 2016.

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the failure of high finance to fix the global economy’s systemic problems.

The operative conceit of the past 7 years has been that high finance can fix whatever’s broken in the world’s economies. According to this narrative, all the world needed to boost “growth,” employment and profits was lower interest rates, more liquidity, reverse repos and some other fancy financial footwork.

Once all this high finance generated more borrowing by debt-serfs, property developers, students, corporations buying back their shares and financiers skimming billions from asset bubbles, systemic problems would be dissolved or mitigated.

Cheap credit, asset bubbles and immense profiteering by financiers would heal all wounds and make everything better for everyone, even those at the bottom layer of the economy.

Unfortunately, this isn’t true. High finance and cheap credit have intensified structural problems such as rising inequality, not resolved them.

The implicit promise of the neoliberal project is that liberalizing private-sector markets and credit will magically grease the processes of growth and widespread prosperity.

When economies have the right systems in place–decentralized, somewhat free markets, an entrepreneurial spirit, many unmet needs, idle productive capacity and a credit-starved real economy–freeing up static markets and credit can unleash the productive capacity of the bottom level of the economy.

But in economies dominated by state/private monopolies and cartels, neoliberalism simply funnels the profits of financialization to the few at the expense of the many, and at the cost of heightened instability and insecurity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Carnage in US Natural Gas as Price Falls off the Chart

December 19, 2015

Carnage in US Natural Gas as Price Falls off the Chart

All eyes are on Chesapeake.

The price of natural gas in the US has gotten completely destroyed. The process started in July 2008, at over $13 per million Btu and continues through today, at $1.77 per million Btu.

In between, natural gas traded at prices that, for much of the time, didn’t allow drillers to recoup their investments, leading to permanently cash-flow negative operations, and now huge write-offs and losses, defaults, restructurings, and bankruptcies.

You’d think that this sort of financial misery would have caused investors to turn off the spigot, and for production to fall because drillers ran out of money before it got that far.

But no. Over the years, money kept flowing into the industry. In this Fed-designed world of zero interest rate policies, when risks no longer mattered, drillers were able to borrow new money from banks and bondholders and drill that money into the ground, and production soared, and more money poured into the industry based on Wall Street hoopla about this soaring production, and this money too has disappeared.

In the process, the US has become the largest natural gas producer in the world – and the place where the most money ever was destroyed drilling for natural gas.

But now the spigot is being turned off. And much of the industry is heading toward default and bankruptcy. Granted, the largest producer in the US, Exxon, has apparently bigger problems on its global worry list than the misery in US natural gas. Its stock is down only 25% since June 2014, and its credit rating is still AAA. But even if it gets downgraded a couple of notches, Exxon can still borrow new money to fund its operations, dividends, and stock buybacks, and service its existing debt.

But the rest of the industry – along with its investors and banks – is sinking deeper into fiasco.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Our “Star Wars” Economy: The Fed-Farce Awakens

December 18, 2015

Our “Star Wars” Economy: The Fed-Farce Awakens

The Fed’s hubris has led it to the Dark Side.

It’s not just a movie, it’s real life: the Fed-Farce awakens. Now that the Federal Reserve has finally voted to “restore order to the galaxy” with a tiny .25% rate increase, the true measure of our travesty of a mockery of a sham economy–in a phrase, The Fed-Farce–has been revealed.

Here’s a snapshot of the Fed meeting, “restoring order to the galaxy” in a show of unanimous galactic-scale hubris:

If we had to list the fatal wounds inflicted on the economy by the Fed-Farce’s financial repression, we might start with: the Fed’s flood of cheap credit has not boosted productivity, it’s only boosted speculation. Why is this fatal?

Productivity is the engine of wealth creation. Speculation is the engine of wealth inequality and devastating boom/bust cycles. This is self-evident, but unfortunately the Dark Side can also conjure mind-tricks in the weak-minded (for example, Congress, the mainstream media, etc.): the Fed has successfully conned the weak-minded into believing that speculative frenzies of mal-investment and Fed-fueled asset bubbles are the sources of healthy growth.

A funny thing happens when you give unlimited borrowing power at near-zero interest rates to financiers and corporations: they use the free money not to hire more people (that would be incredibly dumb–employees cost money!) but to buy up shares in their own companies and snap up income-producing assets such as rental apartment complexes.

$1 trillion in stock buybacks creates zero jobs. Borrowing $1 trillion to buy back shares (and thus boost the personal wealth of managers and owners) does not create a single job. Repurchasing the company’s stock reduces the number of shares outstanding, which increases your earnings per share without increasing sales or net profits.

In other words, stock buybacks are just another Dark Side mind-trick.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sell The Bonds, Sell The Stocks, Sell The House —–Dread The Fed!

December 18, 2015

Sell The Bonds, Sell The Stocks, Sell The House —–Dread The Fed!

There is going to be carnage in the casino, and the proof lies in the transcript of Janet Yellen’s press conference. She did not say one word about the real world; it was all about the hypothecated world embedded in the Fed’s tinker toy model of the US economy.

Yes, tinker toys are what kids used to play with back in the 1950s and 1960s, and that’s when Janet acquired her school-girl model of the nation’s economy.

But since that model is so frightfully primitive, mechanical, incomplete, stylized and obsolete, it tells almost nothing of relevance about where the markets and economy now stand; or what forces are driving them; or where they are headed in the period just ahead.

In fact, Yellen’s tinker toy model is so deficient as to confirm that she and her posse are essentially flying blind. That alone should give investors pause—-especially because Yellen confessed explicitly that “monetary policy is an exercise in forecasting”.

Accordingly, her answers were riddled with ritualistic reminders about all the dashboards, incoming data and economic system telemetry that the Fed is vigilantly monitoring. But all that minding of everybody else’s business is not a virtue—-its proof that Yellen is the ultimate Keynesian catechumen.

This stupendously naïve old school marm still believes the received Keynesian scriptures as penned by the 1960s-era apostles James(Tobin), John (Galbraith), Paul (Samuelson) and Walter (Heller).

But c’mon.Those ancient texts have no relevance to the debt-saturated, state-dominated, hideously over-capacitated global economy of 2015. They just convey a stupid little paint-by-the-numbers simulacrum of what a purportedly closed domestic economy looked like even back then.

That is, before Richard Nixon had finally destroyed Bretton Woods and turned over the Fed’s printing presses to power aggrandizing PhDs; and before Mr. Deng had thrown out Mao’s little red book in favor of a central bank based credit Ponzi.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

On US Interest Rates

December 17, 2015

On US Interest Rates

The first US interest rate increase since June 2006 is a pivotal moment for the global economy, launching what Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, calls the “great policy divergence,” with repercussions in every region and financial market. The impact will be particularly powerful in emerging countries, where currencies are vulnerable to a rising dollar and tightening liquidity conditions in the US. Project Syndicate’s commentators – some of the world’s preeminent economists and policymakers – have examined the issue from four broad angles.

What is the immediate and longer-term outlook for US monetary policy?

The Fed’s leaders have repeatedly said that they plan to raise interest rates much more slowly than in previous periods of monetary tightening. Such assurances from central bankers cannot always be trusted, but Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s promises to move more gradually than in the past are credible, because the Fed is genuinely determined to push inflation higher and to ensure that it never again falls much below 2%.

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz provides further grounds for discounting the likelihood of faster tightening. Instead of trying to control inflation, according to Stiglitz, the Fed’s main concern now is to reduce unemployment and counteract inequality. To do this, the Fed must continue to stimulate the US economy with easy money. Even the quarter-point rate hike that the Fed’s just announced is, in Stiglitz’s view, dangerous and premature.

Moreover, while the Fed’s official responsibility is to manage the US economy, its leadership fully understands the international impact of Fed decisions. Thus, Harvard’s Carmen Reinhart, an authority on global debt crises, believes the Fed will “favor gradualism” to avoid wreaking havoc in emerging economies that are overloaded with dollar debts. In a related argument, Barry Eichengreen, the Berkeley economic historian, suggests that US monetary policy is now effectively “Made in China,” because China’s efforts to stabilize the renminbi have already tightened US monetary conditions by the equivalent of the quarter-point rate hike expected on December 16.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The zombie apocalypse in oil: Why it’s a bad sign for all of us

December 14, 2015

The zombie apocalypse in oil: Why it’s a bad sign for all of us

The dramatic drop in oil prices has created what are called “zombie” companies, oil companies which can still afford to pay interest on huge debts, but little else. If oil prices stay low, the problem is likely to spread and become an economic zombie apocalypse for much of the industry and the communities and countries that depend on it.

Meanwhile, consumers have rejoiced as cheap oil prices have led to cheap gasoline, diesel, heating oil and jet fuel. Both households and businesses are finally getting their revenge on the oil companies after a decade of high and rising prices.

But should those consumers be so sanguine? Can the low prices we are experiencing today be extrapolated far into the future? The conventional wisdom says yes. It claims that the American fracking boom of recent years has unleashed a flood of oil that will keep prices down for many years to come. Combine that with an undisciplined OPEC that pumps flat out and you get not a temporary dip in prices, but a new era of low-cost oil and oil products.

But the same facts can be interpreted as leading to serious future supply constraints and high prices, provided the world economy does not fall into a prolonged slump that would reduce oil demand.

Cheap financing fed the fracking boom. And, even though borrowed funds are still cheap, struggling oil companies are finding their bank lines of credit reduced and a bond market that is shunning their high-yield debt. With additional funds hard to raise, many independent companies are finding it difficult to drill new wells needed to make up for declining production from existing ones, around 40 per cent per year in the two largest tight oil formations–the Eagle-Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota–where fracking is the primary technology for extracting oil.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

If We Don’t Change the Way Money Is Created and Distributed, Rising Inequality Will Trigger Social Disorder

November 13, 2015

If We Don’t Change the Way Money Is Created and Distributed, Rising Inequality Will Trigger Social Disorder

Centrally issued money optimizes inequality, monopoly, cronyism, stagnation, low social mobility and systemic instability.

If we don’t change the way money is created and distributed, wealth inequality will widen to the point of social disorder.

Everyone who wants to reduce wealth inequality with more regulations and taxes is missing the key dynamic: the monopoly on creating and issuing money necessarily widens wealth inequality, as those with access to newly issued money can always outbid the rest of us to buy the engines of wealth creation.

Control of money issuance and access to low-cost credit create financial and political power. Those with access to low-cost credit have a monopoly as valuable as the one to create money.

Compare the limited power of an individual with cash and the enormous power of unlimited cheap credit.

Let’s say an individual has saved $100,000 in cash. He keeps the money in the bank, which pays him less than 1% interest. Rather than earn this low rate, he decides to loan the cash to an individual who wants to buy a rental home at 4% interest.

There’s a tradeoff to earn this higher rate of interest: the saver has to accept the risk that the borrower might default on the loan, and that the home will not be worth the $100,000 the borrower owes.

The bank, on the other hand, can perform magic with the $100,000 they obtain from the central bank. The bank can issue 19 times this amount in new loans—in effect, creating $1,900,000 in new money out of thin air.

This is the magic of fractional reserve lending. The bank is only required to hold a small percentage of outstanding loans as reserves against losses. If the reserve requirement is 5%, the bank can issue $1,900,000 in new loans based on the $100,000 in cash: the bank holds assets of $2,000,000, of which 5% ($100,000) is held in cash reserves.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Political Climate Shifting Against The Oil And Gas Industry

November 10, 2015

Political Climate Shifting Against The Oil And Gas Industry

Oil and gas companies have had a tough time over the past year trying to weather the storm of falling oil prices. But the political and financial winds are moving in the wrong direction for the industry, raising more “above ground” problems at a time that they can ill-afford it.

Drilling oil and gas wells requires a lot of money. For companies that have seen their revenues vanish because of collapsing oil prices, access to credit is obviously critically important. But U.S. financial regulators are growing concerned about a pile of energy debt that is deteriorating in quality. A reportfrom the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve singled out the oil and gas sector when it concluded that credit risk was rising across the United States.

For example, there is at least $34.2 billion in loans in the banking sector that have a credit rating suggesting they are “substandard,” “doubtful,” or “loss.” That figure is up from just $6.9 billion in 2014. Put another way, about 12 percent of all loans to oil and gas companies are rated “substandard” or worse.

Low oil prices are undermining the ability of some companies to pay back their debt. However, increased oversight from banking regulators could force banks to take corrective measures, which could mean reducing their exposure to high-risk energy debt. Such a development does not bode well for oil and gas drillers. Tighter credit conditions – which could also be impacted by a pending rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December – will make drilling more expensive.

In the political arena, things are not any better, with last week being a particularly rough one for the energy sector.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How the easy money boom ends

November 7, 2015

How the easy money boom ends

Through the door there came familiar laughter
I saw your face and heard you call my name
Oh, my friend we’re older but no wiser
For in our hearts the dreams are still the same
Those were the days

– “Those Were the Days” by Gene Raskin

POITOU, France – Yes, they were good years… 1980-2015. We laughed. We cried. We got married. We raised children. We bought houses. We made money.Whose life has not been improved since the end of the 1970s?

Reagan’s “Morning in America.” Then the Clinton Years. Finally, George W. Bush’s “Fin de Bubble” era. Who is not older and better off (or at least older) than he was when the era began?

Should we just stop there, happy to have had such a wonderful time together?

Today, the Dow opens at 17,867 points – not far from its all-time high. And about 1,180% higher than it was 35 years ago.

A man would be fool to question his happiness in marriage; would he be so foolish to wonder about the bliss afforded by such a bull run?

Should we merely thank divine providence… or the profane feds… for our granite countertops, our rising stock market portfolios, our families, and our fortunes?

Should we look in the closets and under the rug?

Or maybe – just maybe – should we check the balance sheet?

Vanishing Capital
The press was unanimous as to what happened yesterday: “U.S. Stocks Slip on Yellen’s Testimony.”

What was it about her testimony that caused investors to think that their stocks may be less valuable at 4 p.m. than they had been at 9 a.m.?

“Yellen hints at December rate hike.”

Investors are no dopes. They know the fix is in. The value of a stock is no longer determined by honest commerce. Now, it is a feature of finance – specifically, the rate of interest the Fed pays commercial banks on their excess reserves.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Experts Fear a Stealth Crash Has Already Begun: “Risk is Flashing Red”

November 3, 2015

Experts Fear a Stealth Crash Has Already Begun: “Risk is Flashing Red”

It is more clear than ever that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program will eventually bring destruction to the planet.

The world doubled down on risk after the 2008 crisis with nearly unlimited liquidity, and now debt is threatening to drown the global financial market. Cheap credit is about to saddle down those who got themselves overextended. Many private borrowers and states alike face default, bankruptcy and/or a failure to pay their obligations. Mathematically, the problem is just waiting to explode.

It is just a matter of when the music stops. But has it already?

Some are suggesting that things are already so bad that a crash has already set in, but without the headlines and fanfare.

This stealth crash is evidenced by conditions so bad they precipitate a chain reaction of further financial destruction. According to the London Guardian things are simply too far gone: “the debt levels are too high, productivity growth too weak and financial risks too threatening.”

Via the London Guardian:

A predicted global meltdown passed without event. But there are enough warning signs to suggest we are sleepwalking into another disaster

The 1st of October came and went without financial armageddon. Veteran forecaster Martin Armstrong, who accurately predicted the 1987 crash, used the same model to suggest that 1 October would be a major turning point for global markets. Some investors even put bets on it. But the passing of the predicted global crash is only good news to a point. Many indicators in global finance are pointing downwards – and some even think the crash has begun. Let’s assemble the evidence.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is Why It’s Going to Get Even Tougher

October 23, 2015

This Is Why It’s Going to Get Even Tougher

The third quarter was tough for US corporations. Worse than the prior two quarters. They got waylaid by weak global demand and lack of pricing power. The easiest way to increase revenues and profits is to raise prices, so via inflation, but that strategy isn’t working when consumers don’t have the additional income to pay for higher prices.

Then there’s the “strong dollar.” On Thursday, Draghi evoked more QE and even more negative deposit rates, which eviscerated the euro and made the dollar a heck of a lot stronger. And so many US corporations are now reporting declining revenues.

It isn’t just the energy sector. For the 142 non-energy companies that have reported Q3 earnings so far, revenues dropped 3.0% year-over-year, according to Moody’s Credit Markets Review and Outlook. Operating income of these non-energy companies fell 2.7%. In this environment, companies try to maintain their bottom line by cutting costs.

“Results such as these weigh against expecting much of a pick-up by either hiring activity or capital expenditures,” Moody’s warns gloomily. Both have been dreary recently.

Cheap money is no longer readily available to riskier borrowers. In the third quarter, bond issuance by junk-rated companies plunged 38% from a year ago. Yields rose as the spread between high-yield bonds and Treasuries soared. And in October, according to S&P Capital IQ’s LCD, it has been even worse: just seven junk-bond deals through Thursday, for a measly total of $3.7 billion.

Leveraged loans are in a similar quandary. These loans issued by junk-rated companies, often for special dividends to their private equity owners or for M&A, are so risky for banks that regulators have been cracking down on them for two years. Banks usually sell them, either directly to funds or repackaged as Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO). But during the Financial Crisis, banks got stuck with them. And now leveraged loan issuance is petering out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Bad at 0%

September 29, 2015

All Bad at 0%

We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war.

ZIRP: Bad for Business?
At first blush, it may appear great for business to have access to cheap financing. But what may be good for any one business is not necessarily good for the economy. When interest rates are artificially depressed, it can subsidize struggling enterprises that might otherwise be driven out of business. As a result, productive capital can be locked into zombie enterprises. If ailing businesses were allowed to fail, those laid off would need to look for new jobs at firms that have a better chance of succeeding. As such, the core tenant of capitalism: creative destruction, may be undermined through ZIRP. In our assessment, the result is that an economy grows at substantially below its potential.

ZIRP: Bad for Investors?
Investors may have enjoyed the rush of rising asset prices as a result of ZIRP. However, this may well have been a Faustian bargain as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks have masked, but not eliminated, the risks that come with investing. Complacency has been rampant, as asset prices rose on the backdrop of low volatility. When volatility is low (more broadly speaking, we refer to “compressed risk premia”), rational investors tend to allocate more money to historically risky assets. While that may be exactly what central banks want – at least for the real economy – investors may bail out when volatility spikes, as they realize they didn’t sign up for this (“I didn’t know the markets were risky!”).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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