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How the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Explains Turkey-US Relations

November 12, 2016

How the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Explains Turkey-US Relations

Turkey President Erdogan waves.Turkey’s geopolitics is increasingly at the center of attention after the failed coup of July 2016. The era of Kamalism, with the army as “guardian of secularism” has ended. The AKP and its revered chief Erdogan are free as never before to go ahead in their ideological project of pushing Turkey’s society toward its Islamic roots. In this short article we will try to explain in a comprehensive and organic way the geopolitical turmoil in Turkey using the analysis of the “clash of civilizations” from Samuel Huntington.

It appears that the framework suggested by Huntington can explain what is happening in Turkey nowadays, from the ascension of AK party, to the spread of anti-western sentiments among Turkish people, as well as the ambiguous role of Turkey in the Syrian civil war. Furthermore, exploring the remaking of the world order predicted by the eminent Harvard professor can enable us to make plausible scenarios for the future.

The main message coming from the clash of civilizations is that, in the post-Cold War era, the world will shift from bipolar (US vs USSR) to multipolar international relationships and nations will organize their relations according to their cultural ties. In this setting, the fall of the Soviet Empire announces the end of the “ideological wars “and a shift to a normal state of affairs characterized by cultural conflicts. Huntington describes eight major civilizations and he forecasts inter civilizational conflicts along their civilizational lines, while other kind of struggles can emerge inside a civilization itself in order to gain the supremacy over it.

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Turkey’s Revival of a Dirty ‘Deep State’

February 11, 2016

Turkey’s Revival of a Dirty ‘Deep State’

Exclusive: NATO keeps backing Turkey, one of its members, despite its aid to the Islamic State and other jihadists fighting Syria’s secular government — and even though Turkey’s erratic President Erdogan may be leading NATO into a risky showdown with Syria’s Russian allies, writes Jonathan Marshall.

Turkey’s embattled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is resurrecting the “deep state” alliance of secret intelligence operatives and extreme rightists that he so notably challenged just a few years ago while putting hundreds of military officers and other opponents on trial for conspiring against Turkish democracy. In a remarkable about-face, Erdogan is now emulating the ruthless tactics of previous authoritarian rulers at the expense of Turkey’s evolution as a liberal state.

Like many of his secular predecessors, Erdogan has reverted to waging an all-out war against radical Kurdish separatists, the PKK. He is dramatically expanding the once discredited National Intelligence Agency, which in years past recruited Mafia criminals and right-wing terrorists to murder Kurdish leaders, left-wing activists and intellectuals. And he appears to be forging an alliance with ultranationalist members of the National Action Party (MHP), who supplied many of the ruthless killers for those murderous operations.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan.

These developments should alarm U.S. and European leaders. They are ominously anti-democratic trends in a country that once promised to meld the best of Western and Near Eastern traditions. They are also helping to drive Turkey’s secret alliances with Islamist extremists in Syria and its violent opposition to Kurdish groups that are leading the resistance to ISIS in that country.

Erdogan successfully cultivated a democratic image after his moderate Islamic party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), gained a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the November 2002 elections. Then in 2008, with public support for his party sagging, Erdogan oversaw the mass indictment of more than 200 former military officers, academics, journalists, businessmen and other opponents of the AKP.

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US Ally Turkey Throws Journalists In Jail For “Attempting To Overthrow The Government”

November 4, 2015

US Ally Turkey Throws Journalists In Jail For “Attempting To Overthrow The Government”

Let’s just be clear: while it’s not precisely clear what combination of voter fraud, intimidation, and coercion ultimately led to Sunday’s sweeping ballot box victory for AKP in Turkey, there’s little question that the election results reflect the will of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan more than they reflect the will of the people.

Indeed, quite a few observers have voiced concerns over the election outcome including the US.

“We have both publicly and privately raised our concerns about freedom of the press, freedom of speech and freedom of assembly in Turkey,” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said on Monday.

For those unfamiliar with the backstory, Erdogan effectively started a civil war with the PKK in order to convince the public that only a dictator is capable of keeping the peace. Meanwhile, the PKK claims that Ankara has been using ISIS affiliates to stage what amount to false flag suicide bombings on Turkish citizens in order to frighten voters into relinquishing their support for the pro-Kurdish HDP.

The turmoil led directly to a plunging lira and crackdowns on anyone that even looked like they might be against the government. For example, here are some images from attacks on HDP offices in the lead up to the elections:

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Attacks On the Press Escalate Ahead of Turkish Elections

October 30, 2015

Attacks On the Press Escalate Ahead of Turkish Elections

ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, Turkish riot police stormed the offices of Koza Ipek Holding, a media group in Istanbul housing the Bugun TV channel and the Bugun and Millet newspapers.

“Dear viewers,” a Bugun TV anchor casually announced during the early morning broadcast, “do not be surprised if you see police in our studio in the upcoming minutes.” Outside, police were leading journalists away in handcuffs, while citizens — many of them journalists who worked in the building — protested the dawn raid as police attempted to disperse the growing crowd with tear gas and water cannons.

Scenes of riot police suddenly and forcefully storming media outlets perceived to be critical of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have become increasingly common in Turkey. In June the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) won 13 percent of the vote in the Parliamentary election, thereby surpassing the 10 percent electoral threshold needed for Parliamentary representation and taking away seats from President Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Crackdown Ahead of Elections

As the November 1 elections approach — a “snap” election called by the AKP in hopes of regaining a Parliamentary majority — press freedom advocates are concerned that the increasing raids on media outlets and attacks on journalists represent a dire threat to Turkish democracy.

“This pressure and attacks have significantly impacted journalists’ ability to report on matters of public interest freely and independently,” said Muzaffar Suleymanov, a researcher for the Committee to Protect Journalists Europe and Central Asia Program, at a recent press conference hosted by an emergency press freedom mission to Turkey. “In a practical sense, attacks on journalists compromise their work and affect the public’s ability to make an informed decision to vote.”

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NATO Member Turkey Shoots Down Drone Of Unknown Origin On Border With Syria

October 16, 2015

NATO Member Turkey Shoots Down Drone Of Unknown Origin On Border With Syria

Over the course of Russia’s involvement in Syria, the tension between Moscow and Ankara has grown steadily.

In short, NATO-member Turkey has accused Russian fighter jets of violating its airspace as they buzz the border on the way to hitting anti-regime targets. The escalation of hostilities between the two countries now threatens to derail billions in trade and energy deals as Erdogan recently warned Putin that Ankara may go elsewhere for its natural gas needs.

Ultimately, it isn’t about Turkey’s airspace. It’s about Ankara wanting Assad gone and Moscow wanting Assad to remain in power and indeed, the US is already using a Turkish air base as a kind of forward operating center for bombing runs, meaning NATO may well use Turkey to float conflict trial balloons to see just what the West can get away with in terms of challenging the Russians in Syria (incidentally, Erdogan has an election coming up in two weeks and a key part of the push to restore AKP’s absolute majority in parliament is scaring the public into believing that Turkey is under attack and only a strong government can save it).

With that in mind, consider that just moments ago, Turkey shot down an unmanned drone that Ankara says violated its airspace:

  • TURKEY MILITARY SAYS SHOT DOWN AIRCRAFT AT SYRIA BORDER
  • TURKEY’S NTV SAYS SHOT-DOWN AIRCRAFT WAS UNMANNED DRONE

And here’s the official statement (Google translated):

Today nationalities in our country’s airspace at the border with Syria has been detected an unknown aircraft, although be warned three times on continuing to move our aircraft performing patrols on the border by the rules of engagement it has been reduced by fire in the frame. 

Turkish Armed Forces is implementing with determination in the framework of the duties assigned to rules of engagement. “

Meanwhile, it was determined that lowering the unmanned vehicle.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Angry Mobs Torch Kurdish Offices, Shops As Turkey Descends Into Chaos

September 9, 2015

Angry Mobs Torch Kurdish Offices, Shops As Turkey Descends Into Chaos

History is replete with examples of US-backed world leaders oppressing their people with Washington’s implicit blessing and despite the fact that the eyes of the world are trained squarely on Syria and, by extension, on any neighboring country that has a role to play in determining the outcome of the Syrian civil war, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to orchestrate a political coup of epic proportions in plain sight by plunging his people into civil war as NATO looks the other way.

What Erdogan has done, in the space of just three months, is nullify a democratic election outcome by first obstructing efforts to form a coalition government on the way to calling for new elections, then launching a military campaign against the PKK, knowing full well that if enough people are killed between now and the time Turks return to the ballot box in November, the public’s negative perception of the PKK will likely translate to diminished support for the pro-Kurdish HDP, which was in part responsible for AKP losing its absolute parliamentary majority in June.

This is all possible because Erdogan was effectively allowed to trade access to Incirlik (which gives the US army a forward operating base for what will eventually be a ground incursion in Syria) for NATO’s acquiescence to the extermination of the Kurdish opposition in Turkey. 

As of Tuesday, this deal had resulted in: 1) hundreds of people killed, 2) the arrest of journalists, 3) the collapse of the lira, 4) a Turkish invasion of Northern Iraq (the fifth in two decades), and 5) no perceptible progress in the “fight” against ISIS which was the pretext for the entire effort.

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More Trouble In Turkey As Lira Plunges To New Lows, Bond Yields Soar

August 18, 2015

More Trouble In Turkey As Lira Plunges To New Lows, Bond Yields Soar

On Monday, Turkey’s lira plunged to new lows against the dollar as coalition talks between prime minister and AK Party leader Ahmet Davutoglu and nationalist MHP leader Devlet Bahceli broke down. The result, AKP won’t be able to form a coalition government after elections in June saw the party lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 12 years.

In the absence of a coalition, the country will go back to the polls – likely in November – where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes heightened violence between Ankara and the PKK will translate into a stronger showing for AKP.

The political turmoil, rising violence, and general EM malaise have hit the country’s currency hard and on Tuesday, Turkey’s central bank left rates unchanged prompting further weakness in the lira which had already fallen earlier in the session after Emine Nur Gunay, Davutoglu’s chief adviser, hinted that a rate hike was not in the cards.

Meanwhile, 10-year yields have spiked to their highest levels in nearly a year and a half.

As Bloomberg reports, the market is also not impressed with the central bank’s plan to stabilize markets in the face of policy normalization in the US:

Investors sold Turkish assets, sending TRY to record low after central bank published “road map” of measures it said would prepare country for normalization of global monetary policy.

List of 9 technical adjustments fell short of investor expectations that Turkey’s central bank would move toward simplifying monetary policy framework

TRY fell as much as 0.9% to record 2.8941/USD; 2Y yields surged to the highest in more than a year at 10.59%

“The strategic plan is disappointing,” Guillaume Tresca, a senior emerging market strategist at Credit Agricole wrote in e-mail

Central bank is “just trying to justify saying to the markets that it’s ready to face a Fed rate hike, without really announcing anything new”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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