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Tag Archives: complexity
What Problems Are We Solving by Increasing Complexity?
What Problems Are We Solving by Increasing Complexity? The incremental increase in systemic complexity is rarely if ever recognized as a problem that additional complexity can’t solve. The Collapse of Complex Societies fame has observed that societies increase complexity to solve pressing problems that cannot be resolved with existing solutions. What is complexity in this context? […]
Obstacles to Trump’s ‘Growth’ Plans
Obstacles to Trump’s ‘Growth’ Plans Theodor Horydczak “Dome of US Capitol through trees at night” 1943For the second time in a few weeks (see ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent), former British diplomat Alastair Crooke quotes me extensively, and I gladly return the favor. Crooke here attempts to list -some of- the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing […]
How Researchers Could Miss the Real Energy Story
How Researchers Could Miss the Real Energy Story I have been telling a fairly different energy story from most energy researchers. How could I possibly be correct? What have other researchers been missing? The “standard” approach is to start from the amount of resources that we have of a particular type, for example, oil in the ground, […]
Deepwater Horizon and our emerging ‘normal’ catastrophes
Deepwater Horizon and our emerging ‘normal’ catastrophes While watching the recently released film “Deepwater Horizon” about the catastrophic well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico that caused the largest oil spill in U.S. history, I remembered the term “fail-dangerous,” a term I first encountered in correspondence with a risk consultant for the oil and gas industry. We’ve […]
Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way
Our economic growth system is reaching limits in a strange way Economic growth never seems to be as high as those making forecasts would like it to be. This is a record of recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund: Figure 1. World GDP Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. Figure 2 shows world economic growth […]
Think Another Crash Is “Impossible”? Think Again
Think Another Crash Is “Impossible”? Think Again The confidence that risk can be quantified and mitigated is misplaced. If there are limits on what we can know of the future–and clearly there are–this sets limits on our ability to quantify and mitigate risk. Longtime correspondent Lew G. submitted this thought-provoking riff on the system’s intrinsic capacity […]
Stability begets instability: The challenges of the post-2008 world
Stability begets instability: The challenges of the post-2008 world Most people value stability in their lives. And, this makes perfect sense. Stability usually means an adequate, secure income; an established group of friends and family members with whom we are close; an identity in our communities based on our jobs, community involvement, and personal networks; […]
How Systems Break: First They Slow Down
How Systems Break: First They Slow Down Alternatively, we can cling to a state of denial, and the dominant system will be replaced by archetypal systems that are not necessarily positive. Understanding our current socio-economy as a system of sub-systems enables us to project how and when unsustainable sub-systems will finally unravel. The reality that […]
Modelling Tools for Dealing with Environmental Complexity
Modelling Tools for Dealing with Environmental Complexity Photo: Kyle Horner. Creative Commons BY-NC-SA (cropped). In many regions of the world, managing water demand without damaging the local ecosystem is a challenge. For instance, in regions suffering from water scarcity, extensive agricultural fields are often established along the coast. Water for irrigation is partly taken from groundwater and partly […]
The Permaculture City: Cities as Complex Systems
The Permaculture City: Cities as Complex Systems The following sections are excerpted with permission from Chapter 1 of Toby Hemenway’s new book The Permaculture City, published by Chelsea Green. When a permaculturist sees words such as “function” and “synergy,” it sets off lightbulbs in his or her head. Function, for example, indicates a relationship, a connection […]
Stock market confessions, chaos, complexity and the illusion of control
Stock market confessions, chaos, complexity and the illusion of control In the old days of the Chinese Cultural Revolution those who said or did something perceived by the Chinese authorities to be counter-revolutionary were forced into public confessions–and then humiliated, imprisoned or even put to death. It seems that old ways die hard. Last week the new […]
It Just Doesn’t Matter
It Just Doesn’t Matter When an avalanche is about to descend upon you, does it really matter which snowflake was the penultimate cause? While it’s interesting (in a mental masturbation kind of way) to debate the genesis of a pending market collapse, environmental chaos, or energy cliff, in the end, it really doesn’t matter–unless, of course, […]
Why Is Market Fundamentalism So Tenacious?
Why Is Market Fundamentalism So Tenacious? One of the great economists of the twentieth century had the misfortune of publishing his magnum opus, The Great Transformation, in 1944, months before the inauguration of a new era of postwar economic growth and consumer culture. Few people in the 1940s or 1950s wanted to hear piercing criticisms of […]
