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10 Years Later–No Lessons Learned
10 YEARS LATER – NO LESSONS LEARNED “A variety of investors provided capital to financial companies, with which they made irresponsible loans and took excessive risks. These activities resulted in real losses, which have largely wiped out the shareholder equity of the companies. But behind that shareholder equity is bondholder money, and so much of […]
Emerging Market Contagion Threatens Oil Market
Emerging Market Contagion Threatens Oil Market The emerging market currency crisis is not over yet, and could yet morph into a broader contagion that threatens to drag down oil demand. Last week, Argentina’s peso fell by around 20 percent in just a few days, taking year-to-date losses over 50 percent. The central bank frantically hiked […]
The Idea That the Fed Is ‘Independent’ Is Absurd
The Idea That the Fed Is ‘Independent’ Is Absurd Reuters Photographer President Donald Trump sparked controversy — as is his wont — when he recently told CNBC that he was “not thrilled” with the Federal Reserve’s announced hikes in short-term interest rates, which he claimed would hinder the economic expansion for which his administration had […]
Where Will The Next Crisis Come From?
Where Will The Next Crisis Come From? Key Points It’s been 10 years since a U.S. financial shock turned into a crisis in the global financial, market and economic system. A shock turns into a crisis when the system is unprepared for it. The system is often at its most vulnerable near the end of […]
Weekly Commentary: Unassailable
Weekly Commentary: Unassailable I’ve been here before and, candidly, it’s not much fun. Lodged in my mind this week was the brilliant quote from the 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer: “All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.” It’s fascinating how […]
Once the Bubbles Pop, We’re Broke
Once the Bubbles Pop, We’re Broke I hate to break it to you, but the everything bubble isn’t permanent. OK, I get it–the Bull Market in stocks is permanent. Bulls will be chortling in 2030 that skeptics have been wrong for 22 years–an entire generation. Bonds will also be higher, thanks to negative interest rates, and housing will […]
Inflation Has Run Amok – Danielle DiMartino Booth
Inflation Has Run Amok – Danielle DiMartino Booth Former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth is sure the Fed is going to raise interest rates again at the September meeting. Why? DiMartino Booth explains, “I think he’s (Jerome Powell) the most independent Fed Chair in the past 30 years, and I think he’s going to raise […]
Weekly Commentary: Powell, Greenspan and Whatever it Takes
Weekly Commentary: Powell, Greenspan and Whatever it Takes Fed Chairman Powell is in a tough spot, one made no easier now that he’s on the receiving end of disapproving presidential tweets. The global Bubble has begun to falter, which only exacerbates divergences between various markets and economies. The U.S. is booming, while China struggles and […]
Fed Staff Delivers Intellectual Ammo for Hawkish Approach to Inflation
Fed Staff Delivers Intellectual Ammo for Hawkish Approach to Inflation “Because monetary policy acts with a lag, waiting for inflation to materialize before reacting is undesirable, particularly when economic conditions are such that outsized deviations of inflation from its target are a plausible outcome.” Let’s break the above quote apart and put it in perspective: […]
The Fed Will Not Give up “Dark Money”
The Fed Will Not Give up “Dark Money” When it comes to second quarter U.S. economic growth figures, interpretation is everything. On one hand, the projection of 4.1% second quarter growth is a sign of a surging economy set to grow for years to come. But on the other hand, it is seen as temporary […]
GOING CASHLESS?? Someone Better Tell The Federal Reserve As Currency In Circulation Reaches New High
GOING CASHLESS?? Someone Better Tell The Federal Reserve As Currency In Circulation Reaches New High With all the talk about Central banks going “Cashless,” someone needs to tell the Federal Reserve. Why? Because the Federal Reserve just placed another large order for newly printed 2018 Dollars. Interestingly, the U.S. Treasury will print the largest number […]
The Anatomy of a Crisis: A Strong Dollar and Disappearing Liquidity
The Anatomy of a Crisis: A Strong Dollar and Disappearing Liquidity Since March – the dollar’s rallied over 7%. And it’s caused the Emerging Markets to implode. But the bigger problem is what lies ahead. And that’s a global dollar shortage – which the mainstream continues to ignore. . . I’ve touched on this a […]
Turkey: A harbinger of a global debt crisis?
Turkey: A harbinger of a global debt crisis? The economic crisis brewing in Turkey seems to have surprised many. This was probably, at least partly, due to the ‘period of tranquility’ created by the central banks with theirs ‘unorthodox measures’. Many seem to have imagined that the “synchronized global growth” spurt were here to last. […]
No Seller, Let Alone China, Can Disrupt US via Selling US Treasury’s…But the “Why” Ain’t Good
No Seller, Let Alone China, Can Disrupt US via Selling US Treasury’s…But the “Why” Ain’t Good I often read that China may retaliate against US trade sanctions by further decreasing their US Treasury holdings, sending Treasury yields significantly higher, thus blowing out US deficit spending on interest payments. Trouble is, Chinese Treasury holdings peaked in 2014 […]
Patrick Barron–My letter to the NY Times re: Typical Keynesian Whitewash
Patrick Barron–My letter to the NY Times re: Typical Keynesian Whitewash Dear Sirs: Fareed Zakaria’s review of the Adam Tooze book Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World is a typical Keynesian whitewash of a deeply flawed monetary and regulatory system. Like Tooze, Zakaria sees the Federal Reserve Bank as the hero in “saving […]
