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The Art of Defaulting
The Art of Defaulting … the debt-financed overspending of the 1960s had continued into the early 1970s. The Fed had funded this spending with easy-credit policies, but by paying back its debts with depreciated paper money instead of gold-backed dollars, the U.S. effectively defaulted. Ray Dalio Principles for navigating big debt crises Ray Dalio of […]
The Fed Explains the Rate Hikes: To Prevent Financial Crisis 2
The Fed Explains the Rate Hikes: To Prevent Financial Crisis 2 Instead of “bubble” or “collapse,” it uses “valuation pressures” and “broad adjustment in prices.” Business debt, not consumer debt, is the bogeyman this time. Preventing another financial crisis – or “promoting financial stability,” as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors calls it – isn’t […]
Chairman Powell Talks Out of Both Sides of His Mouth
Chairman Powell Talks Out of Both Sides of His Mouth In a speech on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he had a “neutral” outlook on rates. According to a CNBC article, he was quoted: Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates […]
Truth Is What We Hide, Self-Serving Cover Stories Are What We Sell
Truth Is What We Hide, Self-Serving Cover Stories Are What We Sell The fact that lies and cover stories are now the official norm only makes us love our servitude with greater devotion. We can summarize the current era in one sentence: truth is what we hide, self-serving cover stories are what we sell. Jean-Claude […]
DiMartino Booth: The Fraying Of The Fed’s Fragile Narrative
DiMartino Booth: The Fraying Of The Fed’s Fragile Narrative Former Dallas Fed official Danielle DiMartino Booth joins the show just as Chairman Jay Powell faces his first major challenge: will he keep raising rates as promised now that autos, housing, employment, and even tech stocks look soft? And if not, will he effectively signal that the US […]
Weekly Commentary: Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability
Weekly Commentary: Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability Upon the public release of Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech came the Bloomberg headline: “Powell: No Preset Policy Path, Rates ‘Just Below’ Neutral Range.” When the Fed Chairman began his presentation to the New York Economic Club just minutes later, the Dow had already surged 460 points. From Powell’s […]
Competing Mortgage Headlines: Rates Barely Move vs Rates Surge Lower on Powell
Competing Mortgage Headlines: Rates Barely Move vs Rates Surge Lower on Powell Freddie Mac says “mortgage rates barely move” but Mortgage News Daily says “rates surge lower” Mortgage News Daily and Freddie Mac offer conflicting reports on the bond market reaction Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. Mortgage News Daily says Mortgage Rates Surge Lower Mortgage rates […]
This Is How the “Everything Bubble” Will End
This Is How the “Everything Bubble” Will End Subscribe to International Man FacebookTwitterGoogle+ I think there’s a very high chance of a stock market crash of historic proportions before the end of Trump’s first term. That’s because the Federal Reserve’s current rate-hiking cycle, which started in 2015, is set to pop “the everything bubble.” I’ll […]
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central […]
Don’t Get Distracted By The Trump/Fed Soap Opera – The Crash Will Continue
Don’t Get Distracted By The Trump/Fed Soap Opera – The Crash Will Continue At the beginning of 2018 I wrote extensively on what was likely to happen under the administration of Jerome Powell, the new Federal Reserve Chairman. In my article ‘New Fed Chairman Will Trigger A Historic Stock Market Crash In 2018‘, published in […]
The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Realizes
The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Realizes Before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $925 billion—mostly U.S. Treasury securities. After 59 months of asset purchases to push down longer-term interest rates, it had ballooned to a peak of $4.5 trillion, including nearly $1.8 trillion in mortgage securities, in […]
Bank Of Canada To Start Buying Mortgage Bonds As Canadian Housing Market Cools
Bank Of Canada To Start Buying Mortgage Bonds As Canadian Housing Market Cools Ten years ago this week, the Federal Reserve announced it would start buying agency MBS. Asset purchases are now arguably a standard non-standard monetary policy tool, as all three major central banks have since embarked in some form of asset purchases, and […]
How a Fragile Euro May Not Survive the Next Crisis
How a Fragile Euro May Not Survive the Next Crisis A big US monetary inflation bang brought the euro into existence. Here’s a prediction: It’s death will occur in response to a different type of US monetary bang — the sudden emergence of a “deflationary interlude.” And this could come sooner than many expect. The […]
Holiday Doings and Undoings
Holiday Doings and Undoings Somehow I doubt that this Christmas will win the Bing Crosby star of approval. Rather, we see the financial markets breaking under the strain of sustained institutionalized fraud, and the social fabric tearing from persistent systemic political dishonesty. It adds up to a nation that can’t navigate through reality, a nation […]
Rates on Their Way to 10-Year High After Hawkish Fed’s Recent Meeting
Rates on Their Way to 10-Year High After Hawkish Fed’s Recent Meeting Round and round we go, where the hawkish Fed stops, nobody knows… There was a bit of tension in the markets last week. This tension stemmed from a prediction that the federal funds rate would be well on its way to a decade […]
