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Democratizing Money
Democratizing Money The Green New Deal has been in the air lately. In a recent piece on this website, Rob Urie writes that the Green New Deal is “the last, best hope for environmental and social resolution outside of rapid dissolution toward dystopian hell.” Quite a claim. Let’s take a closer look. The Green New […]
Economic Downturn: Credit Cards Aren’t Being Paid, Accounts Are Being Closed
Economic Downturn: Credit Cards Aren’t Being Paid, Accounts Are Being Closed A new report is shining some light on an indicator that the economy is about to take a major downturn. Credit card accounts are not being paid and some accounts are being closed in anticipation for an upcoming recession. Credit-card delinquencies, application rejections, and […]
The Art of Defaulting
The Art of Defaulting … the debt-financed overspending of the 1960s had continued into the early 1970s. The Fed had funded this spending with easy-credit policies, but by paying back its debts with depreciated paper money instead of gold-backed dollars, the U.S. effectively defaulted. Ray Dalio Principles for navigating big debt crises Ray Dalio of […]
Stock-Market Margin Debt Plunges Most Since Lehman Moment
Stock-Market Margin Debt Plunges Most Since Lehman Moment It gets serious. Margin calls? No one knows what the total leverage in the stock market is. But we know it’s huge and has surged in past years, based on the limited data we have, and from reports by various brokers about their “securities-based loans” (SBLs), and […]
Does China Have Enough Gold to Move Toward Hard Currency?
Does China Have Enough Gold to Move Toward Hard Currency? Are the Chinese Keynesian? We can be reasonably certain that Chinese government officials approaching middle age have been heavily westernised through their education. Nowhere is this likely to matter more than in the fields of finance and economics. In these disciplines there is perhaps a […]
“A Daisy Chain Of Defaults”: How Debt Cross-Guarantees Could Spark China’s Next Crisis
“A Daisy Chain Of Defaults”: How Debt Cross-Guarantees Could Spark China’s Next Crisis On November 8, China shocked markets with its latest targeted stimulus in the form of an “unprecedented” lending directive ordering large banks to issue loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending. The announcement sparked a new round […]
The Broken Clocks’ Minute
The Broken Clocks’ Minute Sometimes the reasons you’re wrong turn out to be the reasons you’re right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Old Wall Street adage Anyone who has consistently sounded cautionary or outright bearish notes during the last nine years of relentlessly rising equity markets has been cast aside. Wall […]
Real Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Is Pointing To An Early 80s Style Meltdown
Real Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Is Pointing To An Early 80s Style Meltdown Canadian mortgage credit growth is falling, but how bad is it in real terms? People are comparing today’s low growth numbers to the mid-1990s. While there are some parallels, it more accurately resembles the early 1980s. Mortgage credit growth, when adjusted for […]
Understanding the Global Recession of 2019
Understanding the Global Recession of 2019 Isn’t it obvious that repeating the policies of 2009 won’t be enough to save the system from a long-delayed reset? 2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial […]
The State of the American Debt Slaves, Q3 2018
The State of the American Debt Slaves, Q3 2018 Consumers are being lackadaisical again with their plastic. Consumer debt – or euphemistically, consumer “credit” – jumped 4.9% in the third quarter compared to the third quarter last year, or by $182 billion, to almost, but no cigar, $4 trillion, or more precisely $3.93 trillion (not […]
“Ultra-FICO” to Boost Credit Scores Giving Millions More Access to Credit
“Ultra-FICO” to Boost Credit Scores Giving Millions More Access to Credit Just in the nick of time not: Fair Isaac is launching a new type of credit score that will give millions more credit. Just as the economy is peaking, consumers with a low FICO could get a higher “UltraFICO“, a new score that factors […]
China Changes Definition Of Aggregate Financing To Disguise Sharp Credit Slowdown
China Changes Definition Of Aggregate Financing To Disguise Sharp Credit Slowdown With investor attention increasingly focused on China’s credit pipeline to see if the recent crackdown on shadow lending has unlocked other sources of debt in a country where growth is always and only a credit phenomenon, and where both the housing and auto sectors […]
The Credit Cycle is on the Turn
THE CREDIT CYCLE IS ON THE TURN We are on the verge of moving into an era of high interest rates, so markets will behave differently from any time since the early-1980s. There are enough similarities with the post-Bretton Woods era of the 1970s to give us some guidance as to how markets are likely […]
Fed Credit and the US Money Supply – The Liquidity Drain Accelerates
Fed Credit and the US Money Supply – The Liquidity Drain Accelerates Federal Reserve Credit Contracts Further We last wrote in July about the beginning contraction in outstanding Fed credit, repatriation inflows, reverse repos, and commercial and industrial lending growth, and how the interplay between these drivers has affected the growth rate of the true […]
The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations
The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations The defaults and currency crises in the periphery will then move into the core. It’s funny how unintended consequences so rarely turn out to be good. The intended consequences of central banks’ unprecedented tsunami of stimulus (quantitative easing, super-low interest rates and easy credit / […]
