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Tag Archives: interest rates
The Media Is Wrong About The Fed
The Media Is Wrong About The Fed Earlier this year, most of the financial stories were about how the Fed will start to raise interest rates in June. Much of this speculation was due to the lower unemployment rate, and the expectation that the U.S. economy would be in full recovery. This past Wednesday, the Fed […]
Cyclical Changes in Business Conditions
Cyclical Changes in Business Conditions The Role of Interest Rates In our economic system, times of good business commonly alternate more or less regularly with times of bad business. Decline follows economic upswing, upswing follows decline, and so on. The attention of economic theory has quite understandably been greatly stimulated by this problem of cyclical […]
Credit Market Warning: Long-awaited signs of danger are materalizing
Credit Market Warning: Long-awaited signs of danger are materalizing There are large signs of stress now present in the credit markets. You might not know it from today’s multi-generationally low interest rates, but other key measures such as liquidity and volatility are flashing worrying signs. Look, we all know that this centrally planned experiment forcing financial assets […]
Hidden In Fannie and Freddie
Hidden In Fannie and Freddie With another financial crisis fast approaching the cause of the ‘08 crash hasn’t been settled. Austrians generally line up on the side of the all-powerful Fed having lowering interest rates below what the market would produce, sending capital into malinvestments: In this case, too many subdivisions of houses and other […]
Janet Yellen’s clout today is especially hefty: Don Pittis
Janet Yellen’s clout today is especially hefty: Don Pittis The sense that change is afoot lends power to the U.S. central banker’s words If you live in a cave and survive on nuts, berries and the odd roasted squirrel, what U.S. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says today won’t make much difference to your life. At least not right […]
Bank Of America Begins 66-Day Countdown Until The Terrible Ghost Of 1937 Returns
Bank Of America Begins 66-Day Countdown Until The Terrible Ghost Of 1937 Returns In 66 trading days on September 17, 2015, the Federal Reserve will, according to Bank of America, hike rates for the first time since 2006, which according to BofA will “end the era of excess liquidity.” We disagree entirely, but let’s hear […]
Bond Markets Herald an End to Cheap Government Debt
Bond Markets Herald an End to Cheap Government Debt Bond markets got choppy at the end of April, when institutional investors began lining up to bet against the market. Since then the situation has gotten worse for bond holders, as spiking yields in Germany, and even US Treasuries, have created a rush for the exit […]
As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World
As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World When confidence cracks, we’ll see it there first During the prior economic cycle of 2003-2007, one question I asked again and again was: Is the US running on a business cycle or a credit cycle? That question was prompted by a series of data I have tracked […]
The Central Banks Are Losing Control Of The Financial Markets
The Central Banks Are Losing Control Of The Financial Markets Every great con game eventually comes to an end. For years, global central banks have been manipulating the financial marketplace with their monetary voodoo. Somehow, they have convinced investors around the world to invest tens of trillions of dollars into bonds that provide a return that […]
What We Learned over Dinner from a Swiss Central Banker
What We Learned over Dinner from a Swiss Central Banker Dear Diary, Today… what we learned over dinner from a surprisingly smart central banker. But first, to the markets… The Dow shot up 121 Dow points yesterday, recovering most of Tuesday’s slide. In a series of business meetings Tuesday and Wednesday, we explained why nobody but us is rooting for […]
The potential bond crisis most people have never heard of
The potential bond crisis most people have never heard of While 007 goes from strength to strength, his financial namesake may be heading for a fall “The name’s Bond,” goes the famous line. But in this case, it’s not James Bond. While nearly everyone knows every detail about the 007 super spy, his lesser-known financial namesake is many times more important. […]
Is The 505 Trillion Dollar Interest Rate Derivatives Bubble In Imminent Jeopardy?
Is The 505 Trillion Dollar Interest Rate Derivatives Bubble In Imminent Jeopardy? All over the planet, large banks are massively overexposed to derivatives contracts. Interest rate derivatives account for the biggest chunk of these derivatives contracts. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the notional value of all interest rate derivatives contracts outstanding around the globe […]
Is the Fed Going to Raise Mortgage Interest Rates?
Is the Fed Going to Raise Mortgage Interest Rates? The Interest Rate Guessing Game Seldom does a day go by without some guru offering his or her prediction on when the Fed is going to raise rates. They all come with scholarly theories supporting their prediction. It sounds like a fun game. I want to […]
