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Former Fed Governor Predicts “Wrenching” Market Adjustment

Former Fed Governor Predicts “Wrenching” Market Adjustment Lawrence Lindsey, a Governor of the Federal Reserve from 1991 to 1997, was right before. And got fired for it. Reality was too inconvenient. In December 2002, as George W. Bush’s economic adviser and Director of the National Economic Council at the White House, he fretted out loud […]

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Is the Fed Going to Raise Mortgage Interest Rates?

Is the Fed Going to Raise Mortgage Interest Rates? The Interest Rate Guessing Game Seldom does a day go by without some guru offering his or her prediction on when the Fed is going to raise rates.  They all come with scholarly theories supporting their prediction.  It sounds like a fun game.  I want to […]

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Bank of America forecasts another rate cut in Canada

Bank of America forecasts another rate cut in Canada Gloomy outlook for Canadian economy sees loonie pushed to 73 cents Bank of America, one of the U.S.’s biggest banks, says the Bank of Canada may have to cut its key lending rate again later this year. Bank of America says Canada’s economy will underperform the […]

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Economist on Gold – A Dissection

Economist on Gold – A Dissection A Proven Contrary Indicator In early May, the Economist has published an editorial on gold, ominously entitled “Buried”. We wanted to comment on it earlier already, but never seemed to get around to it. It is still worth doing so for a number of reasons. The Economist is a quintessential […]

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Afraid of Losing Trillions, Wall Street Fights Fed Rate Hikes

Afraid of Losing Trillions, Wall Street Fights Fed Rate Hikes Since last week, $2.1 billion worth of artworks have changed hands at Christie’s and Sotheby’s in New York. “Les Femmes d’Alger (Version ‘O’)” by Pablo Picasso sold for $179.4 million, highest price ever paid for a painting at an auction. The bronze, “L’Homme au Doigt,” […]

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What If Mortgage Rates Go Up?

What If Mortgage Rates Go Up? From 4% to 5% If the 30 year mortgage rate increases by just a quarter percent to 4.25%, monthly payment increases by 3%, which may only have a minor impact on the market. Half a percent to 4.5% would increase payments by 6.13% and that may start pushing marginally […]

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The Central Problem with Central Banks: They Become the Greater Fools/Bag-Holders

The Central Problem with Central Banks: They Become the Greater Fools/Bag-Holders  Those who are confident the central banks can print unlimited money may find there are political and financial consequences to such extremes that cannot be foreseen. The central problem with central banks is their mandate now includes propping up all asset markets globally. Back in […]

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A Portrait of the Classical Gold Standard

A Portrait of the Classical Gold Standard “The world that disappeared in 1914 appeared, in retrospect, something like our picture of Paradise,” wrote the economist Cecil Hirsch in his June 1934 review of R.W. Hawtrey’s classic, The Art of Central Banking (1933). Hirsch bemoaned the loss of the far-sighted restraint that had once prevailed among the “bankers’ […]

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The Goldilocks Illusion

The Goldilocks Illusion Why Market Participants Liked the Payrolls Report Some people have wondered why the stock market reacted with such a big rally to last Friday’s payrolls data. After all, the report wasn’t much to write home about, especially if one ponders the details. In addition, the already weak March payrolls data were revised lower […]

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How the Liquidity “Delusion” Leads to a Crash

How the Liquidity “Delusion” Leads to a Crash They were just about all there at the Las Vegas SkyBridge Alternatives Conference, or SALT: Daniel Loeb, T. Boone Pickens, and of course George Papandreou, who in March 2011 as Greek prime minister had produced one of the funniest official Eurozone lies ever when he reassured those that were […]

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Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String

Bank Reserves and Loans: The Fed is Pushing On a String The money multiplier effect no longer works. As you (hopefully) know, we live in a fractional reserve banking system: if the bank is required to have $1 in cash reserves for every $10 in loans, it means the bank creates $10 of new money when it issues a […]

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The Embarrassment of Transparency

The Embarrassment of Transparency Over the past decade or so, “transparency” has become one of the buzzwords that has guided the Federal Reserve’s culture. The word was meant to convey the belief that central banking was best done for all to see in the full light of day, not in the murky back rooms of […]

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Oil Sector May Not Cause Financial Apocalypse After All

Oil Sector May Not Cause Financial Apocalypse After All Across the oil patch, banks are starting to close off their exposure to some of the riskiest oil drillers. A new monthly survey from the Federal Reserve finds that banks that have issued loans to oil drillers are projecting some of them to go bad. Over the course […]

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The Rich Get Richer: Titanic Stock Bubble Fueled by Buyback Blitz

The Rich Get Richer: Titanic Stock Bubble Fueled by Buyback Blitz Why are stocks still flying-high when the smart money has fled overseas and the US economy has ground to a halt? According to Marketwatch: “For the eighth week in a row, long-term mutual funds saw more money flowing out of U.S. stocks and into international stocks, according […]

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Blogger Ben’s Basically Full Of It

Blogger Ben’s Basically Full Of It Ben Bernanke’s skin is as thin, apparently, as is his comprehension of honest economics. The emphasis is on the “honest” part because he is a fount of the kind of Keynesian drivel that passes for economics in the financially deformed world that the Bernank did so much to bring about. Just […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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