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Contagion!
Contagion!
The world is confronting the effects of the “coronavirus.” It likely originated in Wuhan, China, where it jumped from animals to humans at a local food market. It has since spread to other parts of China and beyond.
So far, there are 2,886 confirmed total cases of the coronavirus. All but 61 of them are in mainland China. The death toll so far is 81.
But cases have also been found in France, the U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and elsewhere. That list includes the world’s three largest economies (the U.S., China and Japan).
For many, it recalls the SARS outbreak of 2003, which also originated in China. It ultimately killed 774 people and infected more than 8,000 in different parts of the world.
Not surprisingly, global markets are on edge over fears of the “coronavirus” contagion spreading. And the U.S. stock market sold off today.
The Dow lost 454 points. The S&P and Nasdaq also had awful days. But gold has a good day, up over $10 to $1,582, as investors looked for safety.
But let’s discuss the word “contagion,” because it applies to both human populations and financial markets — and in more ways than you may expect.
There’s a reason why financial experts and risk managers use the word “contagion” to describe a financial panic.
Obviously, the word contagion refers to an epidemic or pandemic. In the public health field, a disease can be transmitted from human to human through coughing, shared needles, shared food or contact involving bodily fluids.
An initial carrier of a disease (“patient zero”) may have many contacts before the disease even appears.
Some diseases have a latency period of weeks or longer, which means patient zero can infect hundreds before health professionals are even aware of the disease. Then those hundreds can infect thousands or even millions before they are identified as carriers.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Hundreds of Virus Carrying Planes Headed for US, London, Paris, Vancouver
Hundreds of Virus Carrying Planes Headed for US, London, Paris, Vancouver
Lockdowns are for the peasants, not those with money.
What Does Halt All Traffic Mean?
This morning, I Decided to Research this Question:
I don’t Know Jim, good question.
China statements say “tours”
Other sources suggest “individuals”
So … Is it Tours or Individuals?
And what about those who visited China from other countries?
Not covered at all IMO. https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1221573171515678722 …Replying to @MishGEA97:21 PM – Jan 26, 2020
Results below.
Lockdown? What Lockdown?
There is no lockdown in China, if you are wealthy.
Check out this Beijing Flight Schedule for today. Here’s the Wuhan Flight Schedule for today.
Lockdowns are for those with no money, not the wealthy.
Beijing Departures
- 25 flights on a page
- 5 pages for the 00:00-06:00 departures
- 26 pages for 06:00-12:00 departures
- 22 pages for the 12:00-18:00 Beijing departures
- 20 pages for the 18:00-00:00 departures
That’s about 1825 flights out of Beijing.
Wuhan Departures Today
How easy is it to escape Wuhan?
You can still catch a flight from Wuhan to Anchorage, Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Singapore, Taipei and countless cities in China including Beijing and Shanghai.
- There are 8 pages of flights out of Wuhan today. That’s about 200 flights. Most of the flights are within China, but that hardly stops containment.
- In the 00:00-06:00 slot one flight left for Anchorage. Another left for Bangkok, Thailand and another went to Tokyo.
- In the 06:00-12:00 slot, two planes left for Tokyo and three to Hong Kong.
- In the 12:00-18:00 slot, three planes left for Seoul, South Korea and two went to Taipei, Taiwan.
- In the 18:00-00:00 slot, one plane went to Bangkok , three went to Taipei, three went to Hong Kong,
Wuhan Departures Tomorrow
Tomorrow, there are four flights from Wuhan to Singapore, three to Taipei, two to Bangkok, three to Tokyo, three to Paris, and six to Hong Kong, three to San Francisco,
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China CDC Reveals 30,453 People Under Observation As Germany Reports First Confirmed Coronavirus Case
China CDC Reveals 30,453 People Under Observation As Germany Reports First Confirmed Coronavirus Case
Update (1830ET): While China currently has about 3,000 total cases as reported earlier, according to the latest report from China’s Center for Disease Control, the real number of infections may be substantially higher, because as of Jan 26 (the update for Jan 27 is due shortly) some 30,453 people are currently under observation for the coronavirus. Needless to say, it is very likely that a substantial number of these people will end up positive for the disease, even as the total of people under observation grows by thousands every single day.
Earlier in the day, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, China’s Hubei Province, is opening up 100,000 hospital beds in an effort to contain the disease, the province’s vice governor announced on Jan. 27. In a press conference on Jan. 27 evening, Hubei vice governor Yang Yunyan said authorities have designated 112 medical institutions to treat patients with the deadly novel coronavirus, according to Chinese state media. They have freed up around 100,000 hospital beds in the province, with 3,000 of them in Wuhan city alone, where the disease first broke out. As the Epoch Times observes, “The urgency and scale of the authorities’ orders have raised fears that the outbreak has spread far more widely than authorities admit.”
Meanwhile, in the latest news on the coronavirus global spread, Germany’ DPA news agency reported that the first coronavirus case was confirmed in Germany. According to the infectious diseases task force of the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority, the male patient from the district of Starnberg is clinically in “good condition” and is being monitored while in isolation. Those who have been in close contact with him have been informed and infection control measures have been implemented. Naturally, the Task Force and the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have said they consider the infection risk to the Bavarian population to be low.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Scientist Insists 44,000 Already Infected In Wuhan, Calls For “Draconian Measures” To Stop Spread
Scientist Insists 44,000 Already Infected In Wuhan, Calls For “Draconian Measures” To Stop Spread
Now that health officials in China have admitted that patients infected with the novel coronavirus often become contagious long before symptoms emerge, and Canada may or may not have just confirmed its first case of human-to-human transmission, health officials around the world are finally listening to some of the experts who warned about the virus’s lethal potential (and were rewarded with accusations of being an alarmist).
And nowhere is that advice being followed more closely than Hong Kong, where the city government has already inspired riots after considering using a new public housing project as a quarantine for virus victims.
The pushback to that plan was surprising and appears to be an isolated incident. Because University of Hong Kong academics are urging the city’s government to embrace “draconian” measures to stop history from repeating itself.
Hong Kong was rocked by SARS 17 years ago, when the virus – one of seven coronavirus strains (a family that also includes nCoV and MERS) – tore through the city’s financial district, causing 300 deaths, according to the SCMP.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Wuhan Mayor Offers To Resign As Coronavirus Cases Near 3,000; Supply Shortages Intensify
Wuhan Mayor Offers To Resign As Coronavirus Cases Near 3,000; Supply Shortages Intensify
Update (0700ET): Chinese health officials have confirmed an additional fatality tied to the virus.
Here’s the latest roundup from Chinese state media:
#LATEST on #WuhanPneumonia:
– 2,835 cases confirmed in China, including 81 deaths, while 55 people recovered
Overseas cases:
– Thailand: 8
– Japan: 4
– South Korea: 4
– US: 5
– Vietnam: 2
– Singapore: 4
– Malaysia: 4
– Nepal: 1
– France: 3
– Australia: 5
– Canada: 1
Meanwhile, the FT reports that OPEC and its allies are weighing deeper production cuts in response to the fallout from the virus, which has hammered oil prices. The Brent international benchmark tumbled below $60 a barrel on Monday. The cartel’s next meeting is set for early March in Vienna.
As the world enters panic mode, a team of analysts at JP Morgan assured their clients that the epidemic – which will likely soon qualify as a pandemic assuming the WHO changes course – is merely an “interruption to the narrative” and that the fallout would be confined to China and the broader region – not the entire planet.
Meanwhile, Australia has confirmed its fifth case of the virus: a 21-year-old woman who arrived in Australia on the last flight out of Wuhan to Sydney. In the UK, 52 people have been tested for the virus, but no cases have been confirmed, per ITV.
* * *
Investors who dismissed the threat to their P&Ls posed by China’s coronavirus outbreak are suddenly realizing that they’ve made a grave miscalculation. What few Asian markets were open on Monday (most were closed for the LNY holiday) saw equities tank, and in the US, futures are pointing to a steep drop at the open – a sign that the market has found the excuse it needed to give back some of its torrid January gains.
With so much going on – the Bolton revelations, the deaths of Kobe Bryant and his daughter, the busiest week of earnings season, and the upcoming Fed meeting – the virus remains the most dominant theme – and with good reason.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Chinese Nurse Says 90,000 Already Infected In Emotional Plea For Help
Chinese Nurse Says 90,000 Already Infected In Emotional Plea For Help
A viral video, reposted on Twitter 48 hours ago, has more than 800k views and reveals an urgent message from a Wuhan nurse, who claims more than 90,000 people in China have been infected with the fast-spreading coronavirus.
An unverified translation of the nurse, posted by @purplelovehime, has been retweeted more than 13.7k times since Saturday, states: “I am Jin Wei. I am currently inside the Wuhan outbreak region, Han Hou area. I would like to describe the condition inside the Hubei province, as well as the outbreak situation in the entire China. Currently, there are already 90,000 cases of pneumonia contraction.”
“What is the rate of contraction? If one person contracted this disease and is not properly quarantined and treated, this I individual will infect 14 people that came in contact with him. That is a significant multiplier. During the spring festival, in our culture, families like to get together, dine together. But this is unlike any other years. I hope that people can stay home, do not gather, and do not visit families. There is a spring festival every year. If everyone can stay safe, you can always get together later,” the unverified translation of the nurse said.
The translation went on to say that medical supplies from bio suits, medical masks, goggles, and gloves “are in great shortages.”
I just received an urgent new video uploaded by the Chinese doctor from the #coronavirus quarantine zone in Wuhan. I need your help with translation and it’s very important we get it right before it goes out to major media outlets. I’m posting it in 3 parts. (1 of 3)
The nurse, in an emotional plea, said everyone in Wuhan and surrounding cities to “not go out! Stay home!”
The translation ended with the nurse delivering some “very bad news:”
“The coronavirus has mutated. It is now a second-generation virus. When it was still in its first generation, we were still able to treat this… However, after the last mutation, it became deadly… The rate of infection are now increasing exponentially. So please remember do not go out, do not visit people, do not gather in a group, do not have dinner party.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Third Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In California As Wuhan Mayor Expects “1000 Or So” New Cases
Third Coronavirus Infection Confirmed In California As Wuhan Mayor Expects “1000 Or So” New Cases
Summary:
- Over 2000 cases, 56 Official deaths
- Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days
- 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year
- 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger
- US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation
* * *
Update (0950ET): As the world is on edge with the rise of the number of officially reported coronavirus infections (and deaths), the mayor of Wuhan said Sunday that he expects news cases to jump by 1,000.
#Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang is now hosting a press conference in Wuhan. “1000 new cases of #coronavirus are expected in Wuhan at the moment.” Many netizens are outrageous about the slow reaction of the local govt over the outbreak and ask him to take responsibility for it.
Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said there’ll likely be 1,000 more confirmed cases. That’s an estimate from the current 2209 suspected cases & 643 other under observation.
Mayor Zhou Xianwang told Reuters and other journalists in a briefing that Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, could soon report an additional 1,000 new cases, that would push total cases across Mainland China to about 3,000.
Xianwang said the city is constructing several new hospitals to deal with infected patients.
He said the city had received new supplies on protective gear such as biological suits, masks, and glasses, which have been in short supply.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into “More Transmissable” Form
5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into “More Transmissable” Form
Over the weekend, there were numerous media reports published in hopes of easing fears that the coronavirus spread was uncontained, and informing the general public just how seriously China takes its quarantine of no less than 17 cities and roughly 60 million people. Take this report from AFP, according to which Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken epicenter on Saturday, as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Lunar New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies.
“Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others” AFP writes adding that its reporters saw “a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of the city centre on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around.”
The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.
“Nobody can leave,” a policeman told AFP.
Yet, but… there is just one problem: the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan’s mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan’s residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.
As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will Coronavirus Crater Hopes Of A Global Recovery As World Trade Tumbles?
Will Coronavirus Crater Hopes Of A Global Recovery As World Trade Tumbles?
The global economy is faced with a synchronized slowdown as central bank ammunition to fight the next global recession is limited.
Monetary authorities across the world have slashed interest rates 80 times over the last 12 months and printed upwards of $1 trillion over four months to counter the slowdown.
The only apparent solution central bankers have offered is a liquidity-fueled massive stock market melt-up across the world that rivals the end years of the Dot Com bubble (and the liquidity-fueled meltup around Y2K). These unelected officials have also provided forward guidance on how an epic V-shape recovery in the real economy is imminent.
The only problem today that market watchers like ourselves have noticed – is that traditional monetary policy has had a challenging time stimulating growth in developed and emerging economies.
Data from Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) showed Friday that global trade volume continued to contract in November, marking one of the most extended stretches of negative growth since the end of the financial crisis.
According to CPB, world trade slipped 0.60% in November over the prior quarter and was down 1.1% compared to the same month a year ago.
Third US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In Orange County, 40 Reported In Shanghai
Third US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In Orange County, 40 Reported In Shanghai
Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday’s tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from the PLA) have already arrived in the city, and another 1,000 are expected to arrive soon.
As the number of confirmed cases surges past 2,000, China is scrambling to build not one, but two, SARS treatment-model hospitals in Wuhan (remember, Wuhan is a massive city of 11 million). Authorities have told the press that they expect both hospitals and their combined 2,300 beds to be operational within half a month.
Even though researchers have purportedly cast doubt on the theory that the coronavirus didn’t make the jump from animals to humans thanks to a shady food market that trafficking in live wild animals, officials in Beijing announced Sunday that the sale of live wild animals, including bats and snakes, at markets, supermarkets, restaurants and e-commerce platforms. But we thought eating bats was a delicacy and an ingrained cultural practice not to be criticized or stifled?
As we reported last night (Sunday morning in Beijing), health officials in Hubei Province confirmed thirteen more deaths on Saturday, while another was reported in Henan Province. Perhaps most alarmingly, last night, we learned that a patient has reportedly succumbed to the virus in Shanghai as well. In that case, the victim was an 88-year-old man who was suffering from preexisting health issues. AFP adds that 40 cases have been confirmed in the city: 37 stable, one critical, one recovered, and one (88yo man with comorbidities) died. They are also investigating 95 additional suspected cases.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 23rd Jan 2020; Plague, Famine, Trump
Blain’s Morning Porridge – 23rd Jan 2020; Plague, Famine, Trump
“Being a bully on the internet is a sure sign of insecurity and weakness…”
I glanced up at the screens y’day and caught a headline flashing across the screen: “No more boom bust cycle” said the talking head on the screen. Really? Go ask former Premier Gordon Brown how well that worked out for him…
The big news this morning is the frighteningly rapid escalation of the Wuhan Plague – the SARs like Coronavirus has now killed 17 (doubling overnight) and is spreading. Wuhan is in lockdown with trains and planes closed down, apparently overflowing hospitals, and restrictions being placed on citizens. It sounds scary, but “horse and stable door” springs to mind. Chinese stocks took a thumping – down 3.5%. Its all about uncertainty. Thus far it looks like the virus is most dangerous to the elderly and infirm, but until everything is known about the source and contagion, we really don’t know.. Fear is the mind killer…
Meanwhile..
Let me assure readers I regard Davos as a nonsense of preening inequality – but it does throw up interesting moments. Yesterday was no exception – from Prince Charles demanding proper Carbon taxing, and the EU agreeing – making excellent points. Carbon should be taxed. It’s going to happen. That will go down well with Trump, who earlier lambasted the gathering with his rejection of “alarmists” and the “prophets of doom”. The scientists respond their role is to simple provide the evidence – which they have done.
Who do you want to listen to? Donald or The Scientists?
Then we had the unpleasantness when the UK told America our priority is a trade deal with Europe.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown”
Rabobank: “Imagine London In Full Lockdown”
Imagine London in full lockdown. Hard? Well, Chinese authorities just decided to issue a Wuhan travel ban, locking down a city with more inhabitants than London. Stopping the spread of the new SARS-like corona virus is the aim, as more and more cases of contagion have been reported, for which the majority are pointing at Wuhan being the place of origination. The WHO delayed its decision on whether to brand the situation as an a public health emergency of international concern and is expected to report on its deliberations today. Meanwhile, China reported 8 new deaths from the Corona virus, bringing the worldwide tally to 17.
Whilst broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets seemed slightly less intense than on Tuesday, Asian stocks took a significant beating overnight, with the Chinese CSI index dropping more than 3% as losses mounted during the trading session. Concerns that travel bans will be rolled out more widely are giving investors jitters, even though these bans are intended to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control.
Meanwhile, the stepping-down of Five Star movement leader Luigi di Maio, on which the market had been speculating already earlier this week, had relatively little impact on European bonds, with Italy’s spread volatile but even tightening slightly after the widening move yesterday. Italian minister Robert Gualtieri said di Maio’s resignation as leader would not affect his position as foreign affairs minister and would not affect the stability of the government. Apparently this was sufficient for market participants, who perhaps see this as an opportunity for the PD’s coalition partner to seek a new leader who can take on the potential threats from the rising popularity of Matteo Salvini’s League, who are expected to do well in the regional elections on Sunday.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Snakes, Bats, Badgers & Rats: Scientists Suspect New Coronavirus Originated In Animals
Snakes, Bats, Badgers & Rats: Scientists Suspect New Coronavirus Originated In Animals
As the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases nears 650, scientists inside and outside China have speculated that the Wuhan coronavirus was first passed to humans via snakes, badgers, bats or rats.
Some preliminary research that has been picked up by the Western press, including CNN, claims the virus may have been passed to humans by snakes, with the Chinese krait and the Chinese cobra the primary suspects. The many-banded krait, also known as the Taiwanese krait, and the Chinese krait, is a highly venomous species that dwells across central and southern China, and across Southeast Asia more broadly.
It’s also apparently among the species of snakes that are sometimes consumed by humans.
Moreover, scientists have now studied the genetic code of the virus using samples gleaned from patients. Using microscopes and photographs, they determined that the pathogen responsible for this pandemic has been confirmed to be in the same family of viruses that caused SARS and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) – the coronavirus family. Viruses in this family have killed hundreds of people across Asia in the past 17 years. Though it hasn’t yet ruled on whether the virus is a global pandemic, the WHO has an official name for the new coronavirus: 2019-nCoV.
And most of those viruses have been traced back to animals in a process known as ‘Zoonotic transmission’. This happens when viruses undergo a series of mutations while inside their animal hosts, allowing them to infect humans, and then travel from person to person.
Some ‘Zoonotic’ viruses, like AIDS, are relatively difficult to transmit. Others, like the coronaviruses, are known for spreading easily through the air – though airborne transmission of 2019-nCoV has yet to be confirmed.
China Quarantines Second City As Experts Warn It’s Already Too Late To Stop Virus
China Quarantines Second City As Experts Warn It’s Already Too Late To Stop Virus
As cases of the new coronavirus popped up around the globe, Chinese health officials managed to assuage the worries of the public, and the market, by insisting that the new, deadly coronavirus that emerged late last month in Wuhan had been ‘contained’ and that the outbreak would swiftly die down.
Despite imposing some draconian travel bans, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this isn’t going to happen. Even after quarantining an entire city of 11 million people – Wuhan is the 7th largest city in China and larger than any US city – experts are warning that it’s too late: The cat is already out of the bag.
But that won’t stop Beijing from trying: Now that Wuhan has been effectively cut off, Chinese officials announced another city-wide quarantine on Thursday: Huanggang city, which is in Hubei province and situated close to Wuhan, will suspend outbound train and bus services, as well as all bus services within the city effective Friday. All public places, including movie theaters, have been ordered to close until further notice, practically guaranteeing that the quarantine will take a bite out of GDP. Though even after authorities cut off all flights, Reuters reports that a few airlines were still running flights out of Wuhan.
As the SCMP pointed out, Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak, is five times larger than London.
The decision comes as more than 600 cases of the virus have now been confirmed. The death toll has been steady since yesterday at 17, as the WHO ponders whether to label the outbreak as a global pandemic risk.
Coronavirus Deaths Double Overnight To 17, Suspected Case Identified In St. Petersburg
Coronavirus Deaths Double Overnight To 17, Suspected Case Identified In St. Petersburg
Update 2: Just as we suspected, Chinese authorities have revised the death toll for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak to 17 on Wednesday, meaning that in under 24 hours, the death toll has practically doubled.
Meanwhile, Russia media reports claim that a passenger from Shanghai has been hospitalized, a sign that the virus may now have spread to Russia.
- PASSENGER FROM SHANGHAI HOSPITALIZED IN ST PETERSBURG, RUSSIA
- NOVEL CRONAVIRUS DEATHS RISE TO 17 IN HUBEI PROVINCE:CHINA NEWS
US stocks are rebounding from yesterday’s virus-driven dip as authorities around the world, including President Trump, insist that the outbreak is under control.
But does this really sound “contained”?
* * *
Update: So much for being ‘contained’.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador – better known as AMLO – said Wednesday morning that two cases of coronavirus are suspected in Mexico, and that health officials are scrambling to confirm. He added that one of the patients is under observation in Tamaulipas.
#ConferenciaMatutina el Presidente Andrés Manuel @lopezobrador_ afirmó que se identificaron dos casos de coronavirus en México. Uno de ellos está en observación en Tamaulipas, del que es probable que se descarte que sea coronavirus de Wuhan.
AMLO assured the public that the Mexican government is closely monitoring the situation.
* * *
China’s National Health Commission has revised the total of coronavirus cases higher for at least the second time on Wednesday: there are now 473 confirmed patients infected in China alone, though the death toll remained at 9, Reuters reports.
Internationally, the total number of cases has climbed to 481, according to a running count by the SCMP:
