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ECB Press Release this Wednesday Could End Extortion Racket over Greece – à la Cyprus 2013
ECB Press Release this Wednesday Could End Extortion Racket over Greece – à la Cyprus 2013
It was Greece’s “last chance,” again. But Sunday, it too fell apart, as they always do. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker broke off his attempts to mediate between Greece and its creditors. The differences were too large, a spokesperson said.
Now there’s a new “last chance” in this mutual extortion racket. The 19 finance ministers of the Euro Group will meet this Thursday in Luxembourg. The spokesman said that Juncker “remains convinced that with reinforced reform efforts on the Greek side and political will on all sides, a solution can be found by the end of the month.” So probably not.
“Last chance,” because otherwise there wouldn’t be enough time for the parliamentary processes required by other countries to approve the new bailout deal before the payments come due.
But even before this “last chance,” the ECB will meet to decide, once again, the fate of the Greek banks, and thereby Greece.
It doesn’t help that the financial markets aren’t swooning every time “Grexit” appears in the media. Greece has lost its negotiating power. The financial markets have other things to worry about. But the markets in Greece have crashed, and Greek banks have been reduced to penny stocks.
Even supporters of the Greek positions are losing patience with Greek game theory. In an interview published on Sunday, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi told the Corriere Della Sera: “We all want Greece in the Euro, but they have to want it too.”
German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, head of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), who has been largely supportive of Greece’s efforts, chimed in more forcefully via the tabloid Bild:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
IMF To Tsipras: “Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?” (But Who Has the Gun?)
IMF To Tsipras: “Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?” (But Who Has the Gun?)
In the wake of the IMF walking out of negotiations with Greece, the Financial Times says the Pullout is Amid an “Air of Unreality”.
What’s Unreal?
Sure, everyone expected Greece to buckle. But what if Greece did buckle for the nth time? Greece was eventually going to default anyway.
There is not now, nor was there ever, anything “unreal” about the inevitable default.
Earlier today German officials said “European taxpayers have been generous” to Greece. What a hoot. Now, that’s “unreal”.
What’s also “unreal” is forcing €330 billion worth of debt on a tiny country, pretending that it can be paid back.
This alleged “generous” bailout did nothing but bail out banks while forcing a hellacious depression on Greece. Taxpayers have not foot the bill yet, but they will, thanks to bondholder and bank bailouts.
Some blame Greece. And to be sure Greece made mistakes. But the real culprits are the ECB’s one size fits Germany interest rate policy, the stupidity of the eurozone agreement itself, the lack of a fiscal union, etc.
Everyone knew Greece lied to get into the eurozone. They let Greece in anyway. Isn’t that “unreal”?
“Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?”
The Guradian reports the IMF walkout this way: IMF to Alexis Tsipras: ‘Do you feel lucky, punk?’
“You’ve got to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?” The lines spoken by Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry sprang to mind when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it had called its Greek negotiating team home from talks in Brussels.
The IMF’s message was short and brutal. There were still major differences between Greece and its creditors. There was no progress in narrowing those differences. The two sides were well away from an agreement.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Macedonia Central Bank Blocks Greek Bank Withdrawals “In Case Of Grexit”
Macedonia Central Bank Blocks Greek Bank Withdrawals “In Case Of Grexit”
The bank runs (and capital controls) begin. Macedonia Central Bank Governor Bogov states:
- *GREEK BANKS IN MACEDONIA CAN’T WITHDRAW CASH: BOGOV
- *MACEDONIAN BANKS PROTECTED IN CASE OF GREXIT: BOGOV
How long before the rest of Europe follows suit and a bank holiday is declared Monday to “Cyprus” depositors?
He further added:
- *MACEDONIAN CENTRAL BANK SEES MAJOR RISKS FROM POLITICAL CRISIS
Just to be clear, this withdrawal halt is protection against a worst case scenario… BUT, by imposing capital controls you are ASSURING a worst case scenario occurs!!
How The IMF Can Save Greece And Itself
How The IMF Can Save Greece And Itself
There’s a Reuters article by Paul Taylor today that’s thought provoking, but not along the same line of thought that the writer follows (or the twist he gives to it). Taylor concludes that the IMF would love to wash its hands off Greece, but can’t because it’s subservient to German and Brussels interests (a junior partner). However, he also describes, without realizing it, why and how the Fund can rectify that.
Not that we’re not under the illusion the IMF is prone to latch on to the following, but that it would nevertheless be an extremely wise move for the Fund, and especially for its reputation. Which, no matter how you see it, is under threat from its Asian ‘competitor’, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), not in the least because the non-western world has long found that the west has far too much power in the IMF, which after all is a global organization.
In that vein, let’s start off with an article the FT published in April 2013, by Ousmène Mandeng, who also features in Taylor’s piece. This former IMF deputy division chief pointed out what unease the IMF role in Greece caused, and how that role undermined its role as an international institution. Today, nothing has changed.
The IMF Must Quit The Troika To Survive
There are many victims of the eurozone crisis but one loser is seldom mentioned: the IMF has suffered considerable collateral damage. It has been dragged along in an unprecedented set-up as a junior partner within Europe, used as a cover for the continent’s policy makers and its independence lost. The monetary fund was set up as a technocratic institution. That, indeed, is why it was brought into Europe: it was felt that a neutral broker was needed to fix the eurozone’s problems.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans
Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans
EU officials turned up the heat on Athens Thursday after the IMF withdrew its team and sent its lead negotiators back to Washington.
In what can only be described as a half-hearted effort, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras submitted two three-page proposals earlier this week that were dismissed by creditors as “not serious.” We suggested that perhaps that was intentional as Tsipras, having bought Greece some time by opting for the “Zambian” IMF payment bundle, is simply keeping up appearances while the real negotiating is going on behind the scenes with Syriza party hardliners who Tsipras desperately needs to support any proposal before it goes to parliament in order to avoid what could quickly deteriorate into a political and social crisis.
One has to believe that Brussels understands this, but it could very well be that between Tsipras’ scathing op-ed (published two Sundays ago) and the PM’s fiery speech to parliament last Friday, creditors are becoming concerned that Tsipras might actually be starting to believe that he can effectively blackmail the EMU by threatening to prove, once and for all, that the currency bloc is in fact dissoluble no matter what manner of protestations one might hear in polite company.
So, with the IMF having thrown in the towel, and with German lawmakers set to rally behind the incorrigible FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble in what amounts to a mutiny on the SS Merkel, Europe appears to have finally had enough because by Thursday evening, reports indicated that EU officials have given Greece 24 hours to come back with a proposal that includes pension reform and VAT increases.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russia, China and the Battle Against Dollar Hegemony
Russia, China and the Battle Against Dollar Hegemony
Michael Hudson: A default is a default. The attempted euphemism of “technical” default came up with regard to the Greek debt in 2012 at the G8 meetings. Geithner and Obama lobbied the IMF and ECB shamelessly to bail out Greece, simply so that it could pay bondholders, because U.S. banks had issued credit default insurance (CDS) against Greek bonds and were on the hook for a big loss if a default occurred. The ECB suggested euphemizing default as a “voluntary renegotiation,” asking banks and other bondholders to agree to write down the debt.
But according to the international bondholders’ organization – the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) – credit defaults can be triggered if a debt restructuring is agreed between “a governmental authority and a sufficient number of holders of such obligation to bind all holders,” making it mandatory. According to the ISDA’s definitions: “The listed events are: reduction in the rate of interest or amount of principal payable (which would include a ‘haircut’); deferral of payment of interest or principal (which would include an extension of maturity of an outstanding obligation); subordination of the obligation; and change in the currency of payment to a currency that is not legal tender in a G7 country or a AAA-rated OECD country.”[1]
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
What Does California Gov. Jerry Brown Know about the Next Crash and Recession that We Don’t?
What Does California Gov. Jerry Brown Know about the Next Crash and Recession that We Don’t?
California was America’s Greece in 2009. It had excellent wine and olive oil. But tax revenues were collapsing. The deficit ballooned. Its credit rating was cut to the lowest of any state in the US. It couldn’t borrow at reasonable rates. And when, under Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, it couldn’t pay its bills with real money, it sent fancy-looking IOUs to its suppliers.
Today, California is flush with money. The economy in the coastal areas has bounced back. Unemployment, while still high in some areas, continues to drop. The budget is on its second annual “surplus” in a row. Capital gains taxes from the booming tech sector, the soaring stock market, the white-hot property sector, and all kinds of other investment activities, on top of some “temporary” tax increases, triggered a flood of revenues – $6.7 billion more than Brown’s office had estimated just in January.
OK, no one can figure out how to deal with the unfunded pension and healthcare liabilities. But what the heck, lawmakers at the Democratic stronghold are now fighting over how to spend the “surplus.” They’ve got till June 15 to figure it out and pass a budget or their pay will be docked.
Gov. Jerry Brown, sworn in for his fourth and final term in January – he’d served two terms in the 1970s – is putting his stamp of frugality on the budget, trying to stem the flood of spending proposals. But lawmakers need to be reelected, votes need to be bought, special interests need to be satisfied, and so the money needs to flow.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Building Hope in Times of Crisis
Building Hope in Times of Crisis
‘There is a big need for the solidarity movement in Greece. It started in late 2011 and has nearly doubled now to around 400 groups – even more if you add the more loosely networked ones,’ Christos Giovanopoulos says.
We sit in the central Athens office of Solidarity for All, a project that aims to facilitate the solidarity movement. It provide spaces and tools for co-ordination between different groups.
‘The government is friendly to these structures, but they have the bigger picture to consider,’ Giovanopoulos says, describing the attitude of ruling Left party Syriza. The self-organized social solidarity economy has grown quickly since the economic crisis hit Greece and the country was strangled by austerity measures imposed by the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Since 2009, unemployment has nearly trebled to 26%. As those who lose their jobs only receive benefits for the first year of unemployment, poverty and depression have skyrocketed. Even more strikingly, those without employment lose access to public healthcare services after a year. ‘About 50,000 people have died because they have no access to public healthcare. It is a human rights violation,’ Tonia Katerini, also a member of Solidarity for All, says. ‘When people are thrown out of social protection they don’t feel part of the system any more. It is dangerous because if there is no progressive movement these people are easily affected by fascists and the far-right party Golden Dawn.’
As a response to the humanitarian crisis many activists and local people started organizing food distribution and healthcare for those who had fallen through the cracks.
– See more at: http://newint.org/blog/2015/06/09/hope-in-times-of-crisis/#sthash.PGZ5Sk34.dpuf
Why Greece Must Leave
Why Greece Must Leave
French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron and German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel published a piece in the Guardian last week that instantly revived our long nourished hope for the European Unholy Union to implode and be dissolved, sooner rather than later. The two gentlemen propose a ‘radical’ reform for the EU. Going a full-tard 180º against the tide of rising euroskeptism, the blindest bureaucrats in European capitals are talking about more centralization in the EU.
Here’s hoping that they follow up with all the energy they can muster, and that we’ll hear a lot more about the ‘reforms’ being proposed. Because that will only serve to increase the resistance and skepticism. Let them try to ‘reform’ the EU. We’re all for it. If only because if they do it thorough enough, referendums will be required in all 28 member nations, which all need to agree, in a unanimous approval vote.
The gents know of course that that is never ever going to happen. So sneaky ways will have to be found. Something Brussels is quite experienced at. They’ve shown many times they won’t let a little thing like 500 million citizens get in their way. We’re curious to see what they’ll come up with this time.
Meanwhile, though, the rising skepticism threatens to rule the day in many countries, and Greece is by no means the leader in the field. Germany has a rising right wing party that wants out (just wait till Merkel leaves). Marine Le Pen has vowed to take France out as soon as she gets to power, and she leads many polls. Britain’s Ukip is merely the vanguard of a broad right wing UK ‘movement’ that either want out or have treaties thoroughly renegotiated.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The European “Template” For Dealing With Crises: Freezing Accounts, Bank Holidays, and Capital Controls…
The European “Template” For Dealing With Crises: Freezing Accounts, Bank Holidays, and Capital Controls…
More and more analysts are beginning to take note of the “War on Cash.” However, they’re missing the fact that the actual template for what’s coming to the US first appeared in Europe back in 2012.
Back in March of 2012, when the EU Crisis first began to spin out of control, then Prime Minister of France Nicolas Sarkozy openly called for the renegotiation of the Schengen Treaty: the treaty that established the 26-nation EU as a “borderless” entity in which individuals could move from one country to another with little difficulty and which also made trade among EU members easier.
France was not alone either. A few months later, both France and Germany proposed imposing border controls in June of that same year.
A Vote of No Confidence in Europe
Germany and France’s joint proposal to allow Schengen-zone countries to temporarily reintroduce border controls as a means of last resort might sound harmless. But doing so would damage one of the strongest symbols of European unity and perhaps even contribute to the EU’s demise.
Germany and France are serious this time. During next week’s meeting of European Union interior ministers, the two countries plan to start a discussion about reintroducing national border controls within the Schengen zone. According to the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich and his French counterpart, Claude Guéant, have formulated a letter to their colleagues in which they call for governments to once again be allowed to control their borders as “an ultima ratio” — that is, measure of last resort — “and for a limited period of time.” They reportedly go on to recommend 30-days for the period.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece: It’s Time For Your Default And Debt Restructuring
Greece: It’s Time For Your Default And Debt Restructuring
For some reason, people think a sovereign default, and a subsequent debt restructuring such as Greece’s government faces, is something that is conceivable – the proverbial asteroid hitting the earth – but which has never actually happened.
Sometimes, raw data says more than words. According to a dataset from the National Bureau of Economic Research, there have been at least 153 sovereign debt restructurings since 1980.
Ideally, Greece’s government will be able to reduce the overall debt load, now around 192%, to something manageable, perhaps around 50% of GDP. This process is rife with danger, alas, and I suggest consulting with Russia (which had a default and debt restructuring in 1998-2000 that reduced the net present value of the outstanding debt by about 50%) to avoid some of the potentially bad outcomes, such as widespread asset stripping by foreign entities (which is already going on), or the loss of domestic sovereignity and the installation of some unelected EU-controlled autocrat, as arguably happened in Italy under Mario Monti. It also happened in Greece, under unelected technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos, who was previously the governor of the Bank of Greece, and then afterwards became the Vice President of the European Central Bank. Papademos argued against a eurozone deal to write off half of Greece’s debts. He wanted a far smaller “haircut,” because a 50% writeoff would hurt banks.
Since Papademos’ stay of execution for the bankers, there have been a long series of “bailouts” by various official entities beginning May 2010, funded by directly or indirectly by taxpayers outside of Greece, notably Germany and France. None of this has helped Greece’s situation in any way. The Greek government’s debt/GDP was 130% at the end of 2010. A 50% writeoff would have reduced this to about 65%. The eurozone’s official government debt-to-GDP ratio limit is 60%.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why Is The EU Forcing European Nations To Adopt ‘Bail-In’ Legislation By The End Of The Summer?
Why Is The EU Forcing European Nations To Adopt ‘Bail-In’ Legislation By The End Of The Summer?
Are they expecting something to happen? As you will read about below, the European Union says that any nation within the EU that does not enact “bail-in” legislation within the next two months will face legal action. The countries that are being threatened in this manner include Italy and France. If you fast forward two months from this moment, that puts us in early August. So clearly the European Union wants everything to be squared away by the end of the summer. Is there a reason for this? Are they anticipating that something really bad will happen in September or thereafter? Why such a rush?
We all remember what happened when major banks were “bailed out” during the last financial crisis. A tremendous amount of taxpayer money was given to the big banks to help prop them up so they wouldn’t fail. This greatly upset a lot of people.
Well, when the next great financial crisis hits Europe, banks are not going to get “bailed out” this time. Instead, we are going to see “bail-ins”.
So precisely what is a “bail-in”? Essentially, what happens is that wealth is transferred from the “stakeholders” in the bank to the bank itself in order to keep it solvent. That means that creditors and shareholders could potentially lose everything if a major bank in Europe fails. And if their “contributions” are not enough to save the bank, those holding private bank accounts will have to take “haircuts” just like we saw in Cyprus. In fact, the travesty that we witnessed in Cyprus is being used as a “template” for much of the new legislation that is being enacted all over Europe.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greek Banks On Verge Of Total Collapse: Bank Run Surges “Massively” As Depositors Yank €700 Million Today Alone
Greek Banks On Verge Of Total Collapse: Bank Run Surges “Massively” As Depositors Yank €700 Million Today Alone
While the Greek government believes it may have won the battle, if not the war with Europe, the reality is that every additional day in which Athens does not have a funding backstop, be it the ECB (or the BRIC bank), is a day which brings the local banking system to total collapse.
As a reminder, Greek banks already depends on the ECB for some €80.7 billion in Emergency Liquidity Assistance which was about 60% of total deposits in the Greek financial system as of April 30. In other words, they are woefully insolvent and only the day to day generosity of the ECB prevents a roughly 40% forced “bail in” deposit haircut a la Cyprus.
The problem is that a Greek deposit number as of a month and a half ago is hopefully inaccurate. It is also the biggest problem for Greece, which has been desperate to prevent an all out panic among those who still have money in the banking system.
Things got dangerously close to the edge last Friday (as noted before) when things for Greece suddenly looked very bleak ahead of this week’s IMF payment and politicians were forced to turn on the Hope Theory to the max, promising a deal with Europe had never been closer.
It wasn’t, and instead Greece admitted its sovereign coffers are totally empty this week when it “bundled” its modest €345 million payment to the IMF along with others, for a lump €1.5 billion payment, which may well never happen.
And the bigger problem for Greece is that after testing yesterday the faith and resolve of its depositors (not to mention the Troika, aka the Creditors) and found lacking, said depositors no longer believe in the full faith (ignore credit) of the Greek banking system.It may have been the Greek government’s final test.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece: Out Of Cash, Out Of Time, Out Of Options
Greece: Out Of Cash, Out Of Time, Out Of Options
On Friday Greece is due to pay at least a quarter of the €1.5bn due to the IMF in June.
…
The creditors say they will only disburse the money if the Greek government enacts various key economic reforms and does not roll back reforms the last government agreed with the lenders and if the Greek government undertakes to run large enough budget surpluses every year in the future that Greece might have a chance of paying back the money the creditors have lent it.The Greek government says there is no possibility of it ever paying back all the money it has been lent and the creditors need to accept that, write off some of the debt, and not insist that Greece runs large surpluses (predicated on the fantasy of paying back the debt) or cuts back on pensions or enacts other similar measures that run contrary to the Greek voters’ will (as expressed in the last election).
Most commentary still appears predicated on the idea that there will be some last-minute deal – either because the creditors will back down and give Greece some more money without requiring it to be paid back or because the Greek government will back down if it understands that not doing so would ultimately mean leaving the euro.
I, on the other hand, don’t believe either side is particularly interested in achieving a deal.
The Eurozone does not want to make any compromise with the current Greek government because:
(a) they don’t believe they need to because Greek threats to leave the euro are empty both because internal polling suggests Greeks don’t want to leave and because if they did leave that doesn’t really constitute any threat to the euro;
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Admits It Will Not Make IMF Payment On Friday, No Deal Expected Wednesday
Greece Admits It Will Not Make IMF Payment On Friday, No Deal Expected Wednesday
For days, Greek officials have been insistent that the country will make a €300 million payment to the IMF this Friday and thus avoid a default.
Last month, we heard the same rhetoric out of Athens and as it turns out, the government had prearranged an end-around whereby Greece tapped its IMF SDR reserves to stay current. In other words, the IMF paid itself. We suspected that some similar arrangement might be in the offing this month when economy minister George Stathakis said bundling June’s payments would not be necessary because Greece was looking at a “technical solution” to make the June 5 payment.
On Tuesday evening we noted that some Greek officials seemed to be suggesting that the “technical solution” was simply a veiled reference to securing a deal that would allow the country to use a portion of its aid disbursement to pay the Fund at the end of the week. That now appears to have been confirmed with a Syriza spokesman saying that if Tsipras does not ink a deal in the next 48 hours, Greece will miss Friday’s payment.
Via Reuters:
Greece will not make a June 5 repayment to the International Monetary Fund if there is no prospect of an aid-for-reforms deal with its international creditors soon, the spokesman for the ruling Syriza party’s lawmakers said on Wednesday.
The payment of 300 million euros ($335 million) is the first of four this month totaling 1.6 billion euros from a country that depends on foreign aid to stay afloat.
Greece owes a total of about 320 billion euros, of which about 65 percent to euro zone governments and the IMF, and about 8.7 percent to the European Central Bank.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
