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Is Greece planning to print energy?
Is Greece planning to print energy?
Over the past couple of months the story keeping many people on the edge of their seats has been the ongoing dilemma of Greece’s detested debt burden, its Great Depression-worthy 25% contraction of its economy, and its voluntary or even forced withdrawal from the eurozone – the fabled “Grexit.”
For about five years now, heavy austerity policies (cutbacks in government spending) have contributed to what is being described by some as a “humanitarian crisis.” As per stated in the conditions of €240 billion in loans that Greece has received over these years, the Greek government has had to significantly cut back on expenditures, which has included laid off government workers, reduced pensions, a gutted minimum wage, and the selling of state institutions. Partially as a result of this, general unemployment is a bit above 25% while youth unemployment is at nearly 60%; suicide rates are up by 35%; rates of divorce, depression, children suffering from malnutrition, children suffering from physical and emotional abuse, and hospitals lacking basic equipment and medicines are all up; infant mortality has increased 43%; and married women are begging brothels to let them work, but who are then turned away because, well, it’s apparently illegal to sell oneself for sex if one is already betrothed.
Nonetheless, and to the acclaim of many alternative media outlets, late-January saw the stunning election-win of what is called a far-left political party, Syriza. The prime mandate on which it was voted in on by the Greek electorate was to reverse the five-year policy of austerity and to essentially tell its Troika creditors (the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) to shove it where the sun don’t shine.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Targets Dollar, Washington Has Conniptions
China Targets Dollar, Washington Has Conniptions
Now even Israel – joined at the hip to the US though the relationship has run into rough waters – has applied to become a founding member of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Despite US gyrations to keep them from it, over 40 countries, including bosom buddies Australia, Britain, and Germany, have signed up to join. Japan is still wavering politely.
The US government sees the China-dominated AIIB as competition to the US-dominated World Bank and Asian Development Bank. But now that it is clear even to the White House that the US can’t stop the tide, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew backpedaled vigorously on Tuesday. The government would welcome the AIIB, he suddenly said, as long as certain conditions are met, such as adequate transparency.
So after this bruising setback, the US now has another opportunity to oppose China’s financial and monetary ambitions.
China is trying to get the IMF to bestow reserve currency status on the yuan, which would add the yuan to a glorious basket that includes the dollar and the euro – currently the dominant reserve currencies with a 63% and 22% share respectively. So it has been lobbying core members of the IMF behind the scenes for support, and they’re coming around despite US conniptions, the Wall Street Journal reported.
China also wants the yuan to become part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights “in the foreseeable future,” Yi Gang, Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, pointed out a couple of weeks ago. With the yuan, SDRs – which currently include only the dollar, the euro, the yen, and the British pound – would “undoubtedly” be more “representative” of the global economic landscape, Yi said.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Said To Prepare “Grexit”, Drachma, Bank Nationalization Plans
Greece Said To Prepare “Grexit”, Drachma, Bank Nationalization Plans
On Thursday morning, we took an in-depth look at what the progression of events is likely to be in the event a cash-strapped, negotiation-weary Greece finally, for lack of will or for lack of options, fails to scrape together enough cash to pay its creditors. As BofAML notes, a missed IMF payment and/or failure to make interest payments to either the ECB or private creditors over the coming weeks would likely lead to default within 30 days, at which point “mark-to-fantasy” becomes mark-to-market and then “mark-to-default” in very short order.
Although Greek officials came out midday with a “categorical” denial of reports that the country was set to run completely out of cash in just 7 days, it now appears Athens may be prepared to chance a missed IMF payment and all that comes with it if it means saving face and preserving Syriza’s campaign promises to the beleaguered Greek populace.
More, via The Telegraph:
Greece is drawing up drastic plans to nationalise the country’s banking system and introduce a parallel currency to pay bills unless the eurozone takes steps to defuse the simmering crisis and soften its demands.
Sources close to the ruling Syriza party said the government is determined to keep public services running and pay pensions as funds run critically low. It may be forced to take the unprecedented step of missing a payment to the International Monetary Fund next week.
Greece no longer has enough money to pay the IMF €458m on April 9 and also to cover payments for salaries and social security on April 14, unless the eurozone agrees to disburse the next tranche of its interim bail-out deal in time.
“We are a Left-wing government. If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer,” said a senior official…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Eurasian Pivot? Moscow Expects “Progress” From Tsipras Visit
Eurasian Pivot? Moscow Expects “Progress” From Tsipras Visit
As Athens prepares to try and convince eurozone creditors that its latest set of proposed reforms represents a credible attempt to address Greece’s fiscal crisis, and as Greek depositors face the very real possibility that they will soon be Cyprus’d, a leverage-less Alexis Tsipras faces a rather unpalatable choice: bow to the Troika which “wants real reforms… meaning that Greece finally has to implement some/any of the long ago promised and never delivered redundancies in the government sector,” or to quote Credit Suisse, be “digitally bombed back to barter status.” Unfortunately for the Greek populace, the latter seems to be far more likely than the former. Here’s WSJ:
Greek proposals for a revised bailout program don’t have enough detail to satisfy the government’s international creditors, eurozone officials said, making it more likely that Athens will need to go several more weeks without a new infusion of desperately-needed cash…“The proposals were piecemeal, vague and the Greek colleagues could not explain technically what some of them actually implied,” a eurozone official said. “So, let’s hope that they present something more competent next week.”
Senior eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference on Wednesday to discuss the situation, officials said. But they said it is highly unlikely eurozone ministers will meet before mid-April to release more money for Greece. That means Athens will have to scrape together cash to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month and make a €460 million debt repayment to the IMF on April 9.
As a reminder, here are two charts which demonstrate the urgency of the situation:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Who Benefits Most From Cheap Oil?
Who Benefits Most From Cheap Oil?
We are living in a world obsessed with oil and its price movements. Some time back, when all the trade pundits were predicting a stable 100$ benchmark, the prices fell… and how! The current fall in the oil price has been particularly harsh and excruciating for some of the prominent players such as Russia and Venezuela. To add fuel to the fire, on March 16, 2015, the oil price plummeted to a 6-year low level of 42.98 dollar per barrel. With the possible addition of Iranian oil to the global oil supply, the refusal of OPEC to cut down its production levels, rising US crude inventory and weak global demand, one can easily predict that cheap oil is here to stay. These are testing times for global economy where a simple question arises: Who benefits the most from cheap oil?
The answer is not one but the two Asian Giants: India and China, who are among the biggest global importers of oil.
Source: EIA
India
With a projected growth rate of more than 7.8% in 2015, India is all set to grow more than China according to the IMF and World Bank. With a consumption of more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, India is the fourth largest global consumer of oil in the world. Since the country imports around 80% of its total crude oil requirement, cheap oil has drastically reduced India’s import bill and current account deficit from the previous years. As per India’s current finance minister, the country might even achieve a current account surplus in the fourth quarter of 2015. Moreover, India has recently de-regulated the price of diesel and petrol and brought it in line with the international rates. The deregulation of fuel has reduced its retail cost which has resulted in reduction of the overall inflation rate.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
US Hegemony, Dollar Dominance Are Officially Dead As China Scores Overwhelming Victory In Bank Battle
US Hegemony, Dollar Dominance Are Officially Dead As China Scores Overwhelming Victory In Bank Battle
It’s official: everyone has caught onto the fact that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank story is extremely important. We’ve covered this exhaustively over the past month, but to summarize, the China-led development bank essentially marks an epochal shift away from traditionally US-dominated multinational institutions like the IMF and the ADB. Meanwhile, it also represents an implicit attempt by the Chinese to usher in a kind of sino-Monroe Doctrine and solidify their regional — and, to a certain extent their international — ambitions. In a desperate attempt to undermine the effort and preserve what’s left of US hegemony, Washington aggressively lobbied its allies last year to refrain from supporting the effort. Then the UK decided to join calling the bank an “unrivaled opportunity.” That effectively opened the floodgates and in short order, a bevy of Western nations and close US allies suddenly reversed course and indicated they were likely to support the new institution. Here’s more:
- US Attacks “Closest Ally” UK For “Constant Accommodation” With China
- De-Dollarization Accelerates As More Of Washington’s “Allies” Defect To China-Led Bank
- US “Isolated” As Key Ally Japan Considers Joining China-Led Bank
- US Upset At West’s Lack Of War Preparedness
- Treasury Secretary Lew Admits US “International Credibility & Influence Is Being Threatened”
With the deadline for applications fast approaching, news coverage has picked up markedly of late. Here’s Bloomberg for instance:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
There’s Brussels And Then There’s Real People
There’s Brussels And Then There’s Real People
Once again, a look at Greece and the Troika, because it amuses me, it angers me, and also because it warms my cockles, in an entirely metaphorical sort of way. The Troika members love to make it appear (and everyone swallows it whole) as if in their ‘negotiations’ with Greece all sorts of things are cast in stone and have no flexibility at all. Humbug.
First, another great piece by Rob Parenteau (via Yves Smith), who lays it out in terms so simple they can’t but hit the issue square on the nose. For Europe and the Troika, there’s Greece, and then there’s the rest. No money for the Greeks lining up at soupkitchens (not even for the soupkitchens themselves), but $60 billion a month for the bond market. The $200 million anti-poverty law – a measly sum in comparison – that Athens voted in this week is a no-no because Greek government has to ask permission for everything in Brussels first, says Brussels, no matter that that only prolongs the suffering. It’s not about money, in other words, it’s about power, and the Greeks must be subdued.
Both the financial and the political press have by now perfected their picture of Yanis Varoufakis as a combination of some kind of incompetent blunderer on the one hand, and a threat the size of Vladimir Putin on the other, while the rudeness of German FinMin Schäuble is not discussed at all. The media are no longer capable of reporting anything outside of their propaganda models. The ‘middle finger’ video turns out to be a fake, but who cares, it’s done its damage. Parenteau:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
US “Isolated” As Key Ally Japan Considers Joining China-Led Bank
US “Isolated” As Key Ally Japan Considers Joining China-Led Bank
Well, that escalated quickly.
Just a week ago it appeared Washington had managed (for the time being at least) to convince the US’ closest allies to refrain from joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a sinocentric institution aimed at promoting development across Asia that is meant to rival the US/Japanese-led ADB and begin a seismic shift away from the world’s traditionally US-dominated institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF. Then, much to the chagrin of Washington, the UK joined as a founding member calling it an “unrivaled opportunity.”
As we and many other observers correctly noted at the time, the move by Britain could well embolden other countries who had expressed an interest initially but been deterred by pressure from Washington to reconsider their bids for membership. In (very) short order, everyone from Germany to Australia to Luxembourg was suddenly ready to cast their lot with the Chinese despite US warnings that the bank won’t adopt the proper operational standards. As we said yesterday, the world is now wise to the fact that US criticism of the new venture is very likely nothing more than an attempt by The White House to undermine Chinese regional ambition:
…and that means in short order Australia and South Korea will likely be on board and at that point, the stigma the US has created around membership will have completely disappeared (if it hasn’t already), opening the door for other US “allies” to join despite the bank’s alleged “low” standards.
Now, it appears the last valuable friend the US has in the bid to keep China from undercutting the ADB is beginning to consider a bid to join up. Here’s more from Reuters:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
German DAX Surges Over 12,000 On Greek Optimism, But The Money Has Run Out
German DAX Surges Over 12,000 On Greek Optimism, But The Money Has Run Out
Moments ago, the German DAX roared gingerly back over 12,000 dragging US equity futures alongside it, with the catalyst cited as the somewhat optimistic tone following the three hours of talks held late last night to try to break an impasse that risks sending Athens stumbling of the euro zone. As a result, a smiling if only through his teeth, Tsipras said Greece was “moving swiftly to meet creditors’ demands for a detailed economic reform plan” and assured euro zone leaders his leftist-led coalition would speed up work to avert bankruptcy.
Still, nothing that happened last night actually unlocks any new money. Reuters reports that “while a joint statement by the EU institutions spoke of a “spirit of mutual trust” and Tsipras said he left feeling more optimistic, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed no money would be released before Athens implements budget measures and other reforms that it has so far been reluctant to accept.”
The risk of a continued standoff, exactly a month after Greece secured a last-gasp four-month extension of an EU/IMF bailout, was highlighted by different descriptions by Tsipras and Merkel about what reforms Athens would need to launch.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Global Economy’s “Impeccable Logic”
The Global Economy’s “Impeccable Logic”
Ever since the Occupy movement coined the terms “the 1%” and “the 99%” to point out disparities of wealth and power, the gap between rich and poor has received a lot of attention. In his highly-regarded 2014 book,Capital in the Twenty-first Century, for example, Thomas Piketty’s central thesis is that wealth inequality is bound to increase in modern capitalist economies. This was underscored by a recent Oxfam report, which tells us that the world’s 85 richest people now have as much wealth as the poorest 3.5 billion; that the richest 1 percent will own more than half the world’s wealth by next year; and that in the US, the wealthiest one percent captured 95 percent of income growth since 2009, leaving the bottom 90 percent even poorer. (1) There’s more, but you get the idea.
Statistics like these have led to widespread questioning of the moral underpinnings of the global economy. But does morality have any place in conventional economic thinking? While the overseers of the global economy are beginning to see problems with the wealth gap, it’s for reasons that are neither moral nor ethical, but purely practical: extreme inequality, they fear, might threaten the continuance of the system itself. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, worries that “excessive inequality is not good for sustainable growth [sic]”(2), while billionaire and self-described plutocrat Nick Hanauer is even more concerned: “if we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in our society, the pitchforks will come for us.” (3)
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It’s What Jesus Would Do, Right?
It’s What Jesus Would Do, Right?
On the day that Mario Draghi opened the ECB’s overly opulent new €1.3 billion palatial building(s) in Frankfurt, which led to fierce and fiery protests with hundreds arrested, amongst others from the Blockupy movement, and the IMF for some reason found it necessary to tell the eurozone that Greece is its most unhelpful client ever (really? let’s see the others) and to leak that finding to the press to boot, the Greek parliament voted in an anti-poverty law with a huge majority.
Oh, and it was also the day that a San Francisco church decided to dismantle an elaborate system of outdoor showerheads it had installed to get rid of those pesky homeless on its property. The showerheads would get the ‘rough sleepers’ soaking wet every hour or so. As one tweet said: “It’s what Jesus would do, right?” Anyway, enough protest was enough to get them backtracking.
I don’t know what the shower system cost, and who really cares, but I do know the price tag for the Greek law to help its poorest: €200 million. Or about 14% of what that one building cost (the EU has much more construction going on). Which, by the way, was announced as, I paraphrase and kid you not, “an example of what Europe is capable of”.
No comment there, I couldn’t have out it any better myself. One thing’s for sure: the building is not meant for the poor. There were thousands of cops at the opening alone to prevent them from entering. Cops paid for with taxpayer money, including that from the poor.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Europe Has A Modest Proposal For Greece: “Don’t Pay Wages For One Or Two Months”
Europe Has A Modest Proposal For Greece: “Don’t Pay Wages For One Or Two Months”
The Greek liquidity, pardon “cash flow” problems are so bad, not only Zero Hedge, but also Bloomberg has launched a daily maturity tracker of how much money Greece has to pay either to the IMF or to prefund T-Bill rollovers. This is what Bloomberg blasted out earlier today:
Greece is preparing for another week of hurdles that ends with a ~EU2b repayment on March 20. Most economists say that it will be difficult for Greece to get past end of March without fresh EU funds. Here’s a timeline of the most important events scheduled this week:
- Monday, March 16: Greece to repay about EU577m in IMF loans
- Wednesday, March 18: Greece’s debt agency PDMA to sell 13- week treasury bills
Which explains why as we reported yesterday, Greece passed a law to plunder pension funds, one which would allow the government to fully invest reserves of pension funds and other public entities kept in Bank of Greece deposit accounts in Greek sovereign notes.
None of this is news: that Greece will run out of cash absent another check from the Troika, pardon Instituions, pardon creditors, is clear. The only question is what happens after, if Europe indeed leaves Greece hanging.
Today, the Greek media is ablaze with just what Europe’s proposed solution to this issue may be. As Protothema and Capital report, the Troika proposed that Athens halt the payment of salaries and pensions for one to two months. This, according to Europe, would promptly tackle the problem of liquidity and find a solution to Greek problem of how to pay back bailout loan tranches to creditors when suffering from liquidity problems.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The ECB’s Noose Around Greece: How Central Banks Harness Governments
The ECB’s Noose Around Greece: How Central Banks Harness Governments
Remember when the infamous Goldman Sachs delivered a thinly-veiled threat to the Greek Parliament in December, warning them to elect a pro-austerity prime minister or risk having central bank liquidity cut off to their banks? (See January 6th post here.) It seems the European Central Bank (headed by Mario Draghi, former managing director of Goldman Sachs International) has now made good on the threat.
The week after the leftwing Syriza candidate Alexis Tsipras was sworn in as prime minister, the ECB announced that it would no longer accept Greek government bonds and government-guaranteed debts as collateral for central bank loans to Greek banks. The banks were reduced to getting their central bank liquidity through “Emergency Liquidity Assistance” (ELA), which is at high interest rates and can also be terminated by the ECB at will.
In an interview reported in the German magazine Der Spiegel on March 6th, Alexis Tsipras said that the ECB was “holding a noose around Greece’s neck.” If the ECB continued its hardball tactics, he warned, “it will be back to the thriller we saw before February” (referring to the market turmoil accompanying negotiations before a four-month bailout extension was finally agreed to).
The noose around Greece’s neck is this: the ECB will not accept Greek bonds as collateral for the central bank liquidity all banks need, until the new Syriza government accepts the very stringent austerity program imposed by the troika (the EU Commission, ECB and IMF). That means selling off public assets (including ports, airports, electric and petroleum companies), slashing salaries and pensions, drastically increasing taxes and dismantling social services, while creating special funds to save the banking system.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Thomas Piketty on the Euro Zone: ‘We Have Created a Monster’
Thomas Piketty on the Euro Zone: ‘We Have Created a Monster’
SPIEGEL: You publicly rejoiced over Alexis Tsipras’ election victory in Greece. What do you think the chances are that the European Union and Athens will agree on a path to resolve the crisis?
Piketty: The way Europe behaved in the crisis was nothing short of disastrous. Five years ago, the United States and Europe had approximately the same unemployment rate and level of public debt. But now, five years later, it’s a different story: Unemployment has exploded here in Europe, while it has declined in the United States. Our economic output remains below the 2007 level. It has declined by up to 10 percent in Spain and Italy, and by 25 percent in Greece.
SPIEGEL: The new leftist government in Athens hasn’t exactly gotten off to an impressive start. Do you seriously believe that Prime Minister Tsipras can revive the Greek economy?
Piketty: Greece alone won’t be able to do anything. It has to come from France, Germany and Brussels. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) already admitted three years ago thatthe austerity policies had been taken too far. The fact that the affected countries were forced to reduce their deficit in much too short a time had a terrible impact on growth. We Europeans, poorly organized as we are, have used our impenetrable political instruments to turn the financial crisis, which began in the United States, into a debt crisis. This has tragically turned into a crisis of confidence across Europe.
SPIEGEL: European governments have tried to avert the crisis by implementing numerous reforms. What do mean when you refer to impenetrable political instruments?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Is the IMF About to Make Greece an Offer It Can’t Refuse?
Is the IMF About to Make Greece an Offer It Can’t Refuse?
“The bailout programs that were proposed for Greece and approved for Greece were much too one-sided. They relied too much on sacrifices on the part of Greece and not enough sacrifices on the part of Greece’s creditors.”
These words belong to a Brazilian economist called Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. who represents 11 Central and South American countries on the IMF board. During a recent interview with private Greek television broadcaster Alfa TV, he made the following rather startling — but much ignored — assertions (none of which will be to the German government’s liking):
- The first Troika-sponsored program, in 2010, was presented as a bailout of Greece but was in reality a bailout of Greece’s private creditors. Greece received enormous amounts of money but almost all of it was used to allow the exit of French, German and other Northern European banks from their positions, which were paid at par without any contribution to the restructuring of the Greek economy.
- Any solution to Greece’s debt crisis should include a significant restructuring of debt with its official European creditors. Without a restructuring, it’s very hard to envisage Greece extricating itself from its economic and social crisis.
- The Greek government should respect the IMF’s preferred creditor status. Any debt restructuring should affect other creditors that do not have this preferred creditor status. In other words, whatever Greece tries to do, it should forget about attempting “to restructure its debt with the IMF.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
