Who Benefits Most From Cheap Oil?
We are living in a world obsessed with oil and its price movements. Some time back, when all the trade pundits were predicting a stable 100$ benchmark, the prices fell… and how! The current fall in the oil price has been particularly harsh and excruciating for some of the prominent players such as Russia and Venezuela. To add fuel to the fire, on March 16, 2015, the oil price plummeted to a 6-year low level of 42.98 dollar per barrel. With the possible addition of Iranian oil to the global oil supply, the refusal of OPEC to cut down its production levels, rising US crude inventory and weak global demand, one can easily predict that cheap oil is here to stay. These are testing times for global economy where a simple question arises: Who benefits the most from cheap oil?
The answer is not one but the two Asian Giants: India and China, who are among the biggest global importers of oil.
Source: EIA
India
With a projected growth rate of more than 7.8% in 2015, India is all set to grow more than China according to the IMF and World Bank. With a consumption of more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, India is the fourth largest global consumer of oil in the world. Since the country imports around 80% of its total crude oil requirement, cheap oil has drastically reduced India’s import bill and current account deficit from the previous years. As per India’s current finance minister, the country might even achieve a current account surplus in the fourth quarter of 2015. Moreover, India has recently de-regulated the price of diesel and petrol and brought it in line with the international rates. The deregulation of fuel has reduced its retail cost which has resulted in reduction of the overall inflation rate.
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