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Ideally, I would have written this on May 4th not 14th, but I am going to talk Star Wars.

I was a fan in 1977, kept the flame alive when only battered VHS cassettes of the original trilogy existed, and was delighted to get prequels. Until the opening crawl announced, “The taxation of trade routes to outlying star systems is in dispute.” I recall thinking, “This is my job – boring!” But the prequels were better than the sequels and all the TV shows I don’t watch. Indeed, the prequels’ clunky theme of democracy crumbling into autocracy, dispute over trade routes, then war, seems even more prescient than my 2016 ‘Thin Ice’ report, which underlined how the 21st century could echo the 20th, and our more detailed fragmented ‘World in 2030’ report in 2020.

In just the last week: the IMF warned the world risks splitting into walled-off FX/trade blocs; The Economist stated “The liberal international order is slowly coming apart,” with “a worrying number of triggers that could set off a descent into anarchy”; Germany flagged conscription for all 18-year olds and spending over 3% of GDP on defence; China introduced military training for all High School students; Biden raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to 102.5%, and Trump said he would make it 200%, with tariffs on used cooking oil likely next; Bloomberg warned “The US, China, Russia are in a spiral towards war”; the manager of the Hong Kong trade office in London was arrested for spying; and, as some underline Russia has shifted to a full war economy that incentivises the martial, my prediction that markets will serve national security going forwards came true in Putin firing his defence minister to appoint an economist to the role instead.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Unification Of CBDCs? Global Banks Are Telling Us The End Of The Dollar System Is Near

April 30, 2024

Unification Of CBDCs? Global Banks Are Telling Us The End Of The Dollar System Is Near

World reserve status allows for amazing latitude in terms of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve understands that there is constant demand for dollars overseas as a means to more easily import and export goods. The dollar’s petro-status also makes it essential for trading oil globally. This means that the central bank of the US has been able to create fiat currency from thin air to a far higher degree than any other central bank on the planet while avoiding the immediate effects of hyperinflation.

Much of that cash as well as dollar denominated debt (physical and digital) ends up in the coffers of foreign central banks, international banks and investment firms where it is held as a hedge or used to adjust the exchange rates of other currencies for trade advantage. As much as one-half of the value of all U.S. currency is estimated to be circulating abroad.

World reserve status along with various debt instruments allowed the US government and the Fed to create tens of trillions of dollars in new currency after the 2008 credit crash, all while keeping inflation under control (sort of). The problem is that this system of stowing dollars overseas only lasts so long and eventually the consequences of overprinting come home to roost.

The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 established the framework for the rise of the US dollar and while the benefits are obvious, especially for the banks, there are numerous costs involved. Think of world reserve status as a “deal with the devil” – You get the fame, you get the fortune, you get the hot girlfriend and the sweet car, but one day the devil is coming to collect and when he does he’s going to take EVERYTHING, including your soul.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Warns Biden’s Fiscal Profligacy Poses “Significant Risks” To Global Economy ‘In Great Election Year’

April 17, 2024

IMF Warns Biden’s Fiscal Profligacy Poses “Significant Risks” To Global Economy ‘In Great Election Year’

The IMF said the the quiet part out loud today (admittedly wrapped in 100s of pages of PhD-ese) in their benchmark Fiscal Monitor this morning: pointing out that America’s recent economic performance is partially the result of the country’s unsustainable borrowing, and that the US’ massive fiscal deficits have stoked inflation and pose “significant risks” for the global economy.

“The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability,” the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook. They added that: “Fiscal policy developments in major economies, notably in the United States, have implications for global financing conditions.”

The IMF said the US had exhibited “remarkably large fiscal slippages”, with the fiscal deficit hitting 8.8 per cent of GDP last year – more than double the 4.1 per cent deficit figure recorded for 2022, calculating that ‘Bidenomics’ (and its Inflation Reduction Act) had contributed 0.5 percentage points to core inflation (due to its fiscal profligacy).

Who could have seen that coming?

The fund further said in its Fiscal Monitor report that it expected the US to record a deficit of 7.1 per cent next year – more than three times the average for other advanced economies. It also raised concerns over Chinese government debt as Beijing copes with weak demand and a housing crisis.

The US and China were among four countries the fund named that “critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues.”

The others were the UK and Italy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say GOODBYE to the Dollar

April 11, 2024

IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say GOODBYE to the Dollar

Global reserve currency status allows for amazing latitude in terms of monetary policy.

The Treasury Department understands that there is constant demand for dollars overseas as a means to more easily import and export goods. The petrodollar monopoly made the U.S. dollar essential for trading oil globally for decades.

This means that the central bank of the U.S. has been able to create fiat currency from thin air to a far higher degree than any other central bank on the planet while avoiding the immediate effects of hyperinflation.

Much of that cash as well as dollar-denominated debt ends up in the coffers of foreign central banks, international banks and investment firms. Sometimes it is held as a hedge, or bought and sold to adjust the exchange rates of local currencies. As much as 60% of all U.S. currency (and 25% of U.S. government debt) is owned outside the U.S.

Global reserve currency status is what allowed the U.S. government and the Fed to create tens of trillions of dollars in new currency after the 2008 credit crash, all while keeping inflation more or less under control.

The problem is that this system of stowing dollars overseas only lasts so long and eventually the effects of overprinting come home to roost.

The Bretton-Woods Agreement of 1944 established the framework for the rise of the U.S. dollar. While the benefits are obvious, especially for the U.S., there are numerous costs involved. Think of world reserve status as a “deal with the devil.” You get the fame, you get the fortune, you get trophy dates and a sweet car – for a while. Then one day the devil comes to collect, and when he does he’s going to take everything, including your soul.

Unfortunately, I suspect collection time is coming soon for the U.S.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Lebanon caretaker PM warns of total collapse if reforms not implemented

August 4, 2023

Lebanon caretaker PM warns of total collapse if reforms not implemented

The caretaker PM’s warning comes as the Central Bank is considering completely halting its funding of the Lebanese state

(Photo credit: Dalati Nohra/Handout via Reuters)

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, warned on 3 August that the country’s total economic collapse will be imminent in the event that the Central Bank and its newly appointed governor fail to implement reform policies called for by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“Lebanon will not be able to secure medicine or pay salaries in foreign currency, in the event that the monetary and economic plan presented by the Acting Governor of the Banque du Liban, Wassim Mansouri, is not approved,” the caretaker prime minister said.

“Mansouri’s plan is consistent with the government’s plans, and our goal is to approve these plans and not waste time because the goal is to save the country,” he said.

In reference to consultations made recently between Mikati and the interim bank governor, the former said that there is “harmony [in the Central Bank] with the government’s plans.”

However, Lebanese media reported on 3 August that the Central Bank is considering completely halting its funding of the state as of Monday, 7 August.

Upon taking the reins of the Central Bank following the end of Riad Salameh’s term last month, Mansouri said: “I will not sign on any expenditure for financing the government if it contravenes with my principles or the appropriate legal framework.”

Days later, on 3 August, Lebanon’s parliament failed to pass a law that would allow the state to borrow foreign currency from the Central Bank. Mansouri’s condition for lending funds to the state from the Central Bank was the passing of the law, and the reimbursement of the funds “through a realistic plan,” Naharnet reported.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

IMF Says World Needs to Prepare for the ‘Unthinkable’ After COVID, War in Ukraine

February 15, 2023

IMF Says World Needs to Prepare for the ‘Unthinkable’ After COVID, War in Ukraine

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva participates in a town hall discussion with civil society organizations at IMF headquarters in Washington on Oct. 10, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the world needs to be prepared to better handle shocks and “the unthinkable” in a post-COVID-19 world and in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Georgieva made the comments during a World Government Summit panel hosted by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Dubai on Feb. 14, where she also referenced the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria that have killed more than 36,000 people.

Asked how “difficult” this year is going to be, Georgieva replied that the world economy is still “in a very difficult place and global growth is slowing down in 2023 but it may be a turning point,” pointing to inflation declining in some countries.

“What we are very concerned [about] is one, the unexpected,” Georgieva said. “What COVID and the war taught us is we live in a more shock-prone world. What the earthquake in Turkey and Syria taught us is, to think of the unthinkable.

“We all have to change our mindset to be much more agile and much more oriented towards building resilience at all levels, so we can handle the shocks better,” Georgieva added, noting that resistance comes in the form of ensuring that the very “fabric” of each country and its society is strong.

IMF Plays ‘Stabilizing Role’ in Ukraine

Elsewhere on Tuesday, Georgieva said the IMF has to play a “stabilizing role” in the war in Ukraine, adding that the nation will need around $40 billion to $48 billion for the economy to function this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Hyperinflationary Hell: Lebanese Central Bank Devalues ‘Lira’ By 90%

February 1, 2023

Hyperinflationary Hell: Lebanese Central Bank Devalues ‘Lira’ By 90%

Cash is now king in Lebanon, where a three-year economic meltdown has led the country’s once-lauded financial sector to atrophy and turned the country into a Venezuelan-esque hyperinflationary hell. The country has been hit hard by events over the past few years, starting with COVID.

In August 2020, the city of Beiruit was practically destroyed by a massive blast which killed at least 200 people and triggered as much as $15 billion in damage…

In March 2021, violent protests erupted across Lebanon as the currency collapse accelerated and with it the economy and people’s living standards.

And most recently, In December 2022, the Lebanese parliament failed for the eighth consecutive time to elect a new president, as a majority of lawmakers opposed the options laid on the table.

The prolonged power vacuum only exacerbates the situation, as Beirut is currently unable to enact sweeping reforms demanded by international lenders as a condition for releasing billions of dollars in loans.

All of which has sent the ‘parallel’ FX rate to a stunning 60,000/USD (compared to the official Pound – often nicknamed ‘Lira’ – rate of 1500/USD)…

Source: LiraRate.org

As Reuters reports, Zombie banks have frozen depositors out of tens of billions of dollars in their accounts, halting basic services and even prompting some customers to hold up tellers at gunpoint to access their money.

This has prompted bank runs…

Not a week goes by without Lebanese depositors storming their own banks in a desperate attempt to access savings frozen after the country’s economy collapsed.

Banks began imposing draconian limits on withdrawals and transfers in 2019, leaving depositors able to access only a fraction of their savings in dollars and Lebanese pounds.

and heists…

The National has recorded 27 depositor bank “heists” since the start of the year, including armed and unarmed hold-ups and sit-ins.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

IMF Chief: Harsh Winter May Spark Social Unrest In EU Amid Energy Crisis

September 16, 2022

IMF Chief: Harsh Winter May Spark Social Unrest In EU Amid Energy Crisis

A number of countries in Europe may experience social unrest if the upcoming winter is harsh amid an economic crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Wednesday.

“There is certainly fear of recession in some countries, or even if it is not recession, that it would feel like recession this winter,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF.

“And if Mother Nature decides not to cooperate, and the winter is actually harsh, that could lead to some social unrest,” she added.

Attending the 2022 “Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture” held in Washington, D.C., Georgieva pointed out that Europe is directly affected by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, saying the war has led to “horrible” economic consequences and added fuel to fears of recession in some countries.

Georgieva said the current situation meant that the European Central Bank needed to be “mindful of the necessity to keep the economy going,” while also remaining persistent in fighting broad-based inflation.

“Inflation is stubborn, it is more broad-based than we thought it would be,” Georgieva said. “And what it means is … we need central bankers to be as stubborn in fighting it as inflation has demonstrably been.”

Second-Order Effects

Georgieva noted at the event that the global economy had two consecutive shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which contributed to surging prices and a cost-of-living crisis.

The disruptions in the flows of Russian gas to Europe remain the primary cause of Europe’s current energy crisis. The continent has relied upon cheap Russian energy for years to power factories, generate electricity, and heat homes.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Is The “Great Reset” And What Do The Globalists Actually Want?

April 3, 2022

What Is The “Great Reset” And What Do The Globalists Actually Want?

I first heard the phrase “Great Reset” way back in 2014. Christine Lagarde, who was head of the IMF at the time, was suddenly becoming very vocal about global centralization. It was an agenda that was generally only whispered about in the dark corners of institutional white papers and the secretive meetings of banking elites, but now these people were becoming rather loud about it.

Lagarde was doing a Q&A at the World Economic Forum and the notion of the “Reset” was very deliberately brought up; what the project entailed was vague, but the basic root of it was a dramatic shift away from the current economic, social and political models of the world into a globally centralized and integrated system – A “New World Order,” if you will…

It’s important to remember that we had just jumped through the fires of an international credit collapse which started in 2008 and had continued to cause uncertainty in markets for years. The central banks had dumped tens of trillions of dollars worth of stimulus into the system just to keep it on life support. Some of us in the alternative media believed that these actions were not meant to save the economy, only zombify the economy through currency devaluation and inflation. Not long down the road, this zombie creation would turn on us and try to eat us alive, and only the central bankers new exactly when this would occur.

Think of the crash of 2008 as Stage 1 of the Reset agenda; the globalists were getting cocky and were ready to unveil their plans to the public.

Lagarde’s discussion at the WEF was also held around the time that Klaus Schwab was introducing his 4^th Industrial Revolution concept, which is a little more forward with what the globalists really want…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF, World Bank & 10 Countries Held Alarming “Simulation” Of Global Financial System Collapse

December 22, 2021

IMF, World Bank & 10 Countries Held Alarming “Simulation” Of Global Financial System Collapse

Earlier this month Reuters produced a report which didn’t receive nearly enough attention among the American public – its contents would be sure to alarm most people concerned with the outbreak of yet more ‘global catastrophes’. At the very least it’s curious timing: amid the recent pandemic induced disruption in global supply chains, powerful nations and banking institutions decided to get together to run a global economic collapse scenario.

The report described that Israel led a “10-country simulation of a major cyber attack on the global financial system in an attempt to increase cooperation that could help to minimize any potential damage to financial markets and banks.” It was centered on a catastrophic scenario in which “hackers were 10 steps ahead of us,” according to one official who took part.

Collapse, illustrative image via Reuters

Dubbed “Collective Strength”, the exercise was held in Jerusalem (after being moved from the original proposed location of Dubai) and included the participation also of the United States, UK, United Arab Emirates, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Thailand. Officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Bank of International Settlements were also involved.

The financial-geopolitical gaming simulation was set amid a scenario where sensitive data was leaked on the Dark Web, which combined with “fake news” reports going viral across societies, resulting in the collapse of global markets and an ensuing run on banks. Further, the simulation envisioned a series of devastating hacks targeting global foreign exchange systems, which also disrupted transactions between importers and exporters, according to Reuters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Age of Energy Disruptions

December 17, 2021

THE AGE OF ENERGY DISRUPTIONS

According to a monthly index of energy costs including oil, natural gas, coal, and propane published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global energy price shock of October 2021 was in fact the worst since 2008, when the price of oil shot up to almost US$ 150 right before the onset of the ‘Great Financial Crisis’ (GFC). Back then the oil price however quickly collapsed in the following months as the world was sucked in a downward financial spiral. Today there are signs that energy prices may be headed higher for longer, and more than the 2008 spike our situation is therefore bringing back memories of what remains “the” energy crisis par excellence in living memory, that of the 1970s.

However, what we are facing today is unlikely to be just a repeat of what happened 50 years ago. The world is a very different place now than what it was back then. The causes of our energy crisis are different as well, and so are likely to be its consequences.

Not the 1970s all over again

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Printing and Borrowing Always Ends Badly

December 8, 2021

Printing and Borrowing Always Ends Badly

As more countries copy the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy without the global demand of the US dollar, financing trade and fiscal deficits printing a weakening currency, nations become more dependent on the US dollar.

Neither domestic nor international citizens demand local currency, and governments continue to build large fiscal and trade imbalances believing the magic money tree will solve everything. However, as confidence in their domestic currency collapses, global US dollar-denominated debt soars because very few investors want local currency risk and central banks need to build US dollar reserves to cushion the monetary debasement blow.

Implementing aggressive so-called expansionary policies almost always backfires because the impact on growth of large spending plans is minimal, and the destruction of purchasing power of the currency rises.

Governments always want to believe that they will be able to disguise their imbalances with monetary debasement, but the effect is the opposite.

It is, therefore, no surprise that most global currencies have depreciated against the US dollar even in a year of high Federal reserve injections and commodity price rises. When a commodity exporting country sees its currency collapse despite rising exports, you know that -again- the myth of modern monetary theory has evaporated.

As the domestic economy and currency in countries like Brazil, Argentina or Turkey get worse, governments turn the blame to the International Monetary Fund.

The relationship of countries with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) always makes the headlines when governments have already spent the money they borrowed and do not want to return it. Interestingly, few seem to criticize the IMF when it rescues governments from their fiscal imbalances, and harsh comments only surface when the money must be paid back.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Issues Global Stagflation Alert: Cuts Global GDP As It Warns Of Rising Inflation And “Dangerous Divergence”

October 12, 2021

IMF Issues Global Stagflation Alert: Cuts Global GDP As It Warns Of Rising Inflation And “Dangerous Divergence”

In its latest World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday morning, the International Monetary Fund voiced its starkest caution about stagflation yet, warning that the global economic recovery has lost momentum and become increasingly divided, even as it warned about rising inflation risks.

The fund warned threats to growth had increased, pointing to the delta variant, strained supply chains, accelerating inflation and rising costs for food and fuel. As a result, the IMF trimmed its global growth forecast and now expects world GDP to rise 5.9% this year, down 0.1% from what it anticipated in July and a bounce from the 3.1% contraction of 2020. The 2022 forecast was unchanged at 4.9%.

Pointing to this “dangerous divergence” in economic prospects across countries, the IMF said that this remains “a major concern.” And while the IMF trimmed its growth outlook, it also warned that the global economy is entering a phase of inflationary risk, and called on central banks to be “very, very vigilant” and take early action to tighten monetary policy should price pressures prove persistent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beware the United Nations, IMF, WHO, World Bank, and BIS

September 27, 2021

Beware the United Nations, IMF, WHO, World Bank, and BIS

People must understand that just as a small business wants to expand and grow bigger, that same human tendency exists in government. No matter what form, they will always try to expand their power. The United Nations has been the greatest threat to humanity since Adolf Hitler. They have justified expanding their dreams of world power to bring peace to the world with one government. For years, the IMF has been part of this same agenda. They have sought to replace the sovereignty of the nation-states with a one-world government, and this is what is really behind this COVID and climate change agenda. This “world government,” they argue, should dictate financial policies to nation-states. They want the world to pay taxes to them, not governments.

A looming oil price super cycle will likely be the last

July 10, 2021

A looming oil price super cycle will likely be the last

After a pandemic and a price war sent petroleum prices tumbling in 2020, they are again on the rise. A new oil price super cycle — an extended period during which prices exceed their long-term trend — seems to be in the making.

That’s being driven by pervasive supply shortages from the lack of investment that has continued since the 2014 collapse in oil prices and, more recently, reduced investment in shale oil production. In addition, demand growth has been triggered by a strong recovery in countries such as China, a big stimulus package in the United States and global optimism about vaccines.

Nevertheless, this could be the last super cycle for oil because major economies appear committed to replacing fossil fuels, and car manufacturers have responded by committing to replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles. This shift will transform the oil market into one consistent with climate goals. But it also poses a risk of disorderly adjustment for economies dependent on oil, with far-reaching effects that in some cases could spill over their borders.

Oil investment crunch

Even with relatively lower oil prices, extraction and exploration companies have been highly profitable. At the same time, perhaps in recognition of a less buoyant future, they have reduced their investment. Production in oil fields and the number of wells are declining, and reserve depletion is rapid. The drop in both capital expenditure and replacement of oil reserves has persisted since 2014.

Covid has exacerbated the investment decline. For example, shale oil output — which has a shorter production cycle and therefore is more sensitive to changes in investment — is now increasing by half a million barrels a year, compared with 2 million barrels a year before the onset of the pandemic…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article

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