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China’s extraordinary economic expansion almost singlehandedly drove a supercycle in key commodities since the mid-90s.
This robust performance across several major sectors in China’s economy is in sharp contrast to the growth drivers seen last year.
China continues to buy oil from Russia and Iran at a discounted price.

Since the mid-1990s, China’s extraordinary economic expansion almost singlehandedly drove a supercycle in key commodities prices it required to power such growth, including oil and gas. In 2013, it became the world’s largest net importer of total petroleum and other liquid fuels and, as late as 2017, its still high rate of economic growth allowed it to overtake the U.S. as the largest annual gross crude oil importer in the world. Late 2019 saw much of this activity grind to a halt as Covid hit the country, and the economic slowdown was exacerbated by its Draconian ‘zero-Covid’ policy that saw complete shutdowns of major economic centres at the slightest hint of infection. However, 2023 saw it achieve its official gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of “around 5 percent” – posting 5.2 percent in the end. The same official target is in place this year, with the key questions for oil markets being whether this will be achieved and if so, how easily?

16 April saw China’s National Bureau of Statistics release the country’s Q1 GDP figure, which showed a 5.3 percent year-on-year increase. This was way above consensus analyst expectations of 4.6 percent and was also a rise from the Q4 2023’s 5.2 percent. “Aside from the continued decline in the property sector, policy support is filtering through investment,” Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy for SEB in Singapore exclusively told OilPrice.com. “With property sales now 60 percent lower than their mid-2021 peak, transaction volumes are now comparable to levels last seen in 2012,” she added…

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World Should Brace for Global Oil Shortage and Skyrocketing Price Due to Worsening Crisis

November 1, 2021

World Should Brace for Global Oil Shortage and Skyrocketing Price Due to Worsening Crisis

According to economists, chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis, as well as pressure on oil and gas corporations to reduce emissions and even “keep it in the ground,” would likely lead to global oil output peaking sooner than initially projected.

This would be a positive outcome for green energy proponents, net-zero agendas, and the environment if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is recovering from the pandemic-induced dip and is on track to reach a new annual average record as early as next year.

Nearing Peak Oil Consumption?

Analysts have predicted that peak oil consumption will arrive sooner than envisaged just a few years ago, thanks to the energy transition and numerous government initiatives for net-zero emissions.

However, based on current oil and gas investment trends, global oil production may peak before global oil demand, creating a supply imbalance resulting in increased market volatility, price spikes, and perhaps fundamentally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade.

In a report published by Reuters this week, Morgan Stanley’s research department noted, “On present trends, global oil production is projected to peak much earlier than demand.”

“The planet establishes limits on how much carbon may be safely released. As a result, oil consumption must peak, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.

The problem with the globe is that oil consumption is not peaking, despite wishful thinking, investment pressure, and other factors. According to most forecasts, it will not peak until the end of this decade at the earliest.

OPEC Report

According to OPEC’s latest annual estimate, global oil consumption will continue to climb through the mid-2030s, reaching 108 million barrels per day (BPD), then plateauing until 2045.

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What Oil Companies Face: The WTF-Collapse of Consumption of Gasoline & Jet Fuel from Long-Term Weakness

November 2, 2020

What Oil Companies Face: The WTF-Collapse of Consumption of Gasoline & Jet Fuel from Long-Term Weakness

Transportation fuel demand rose to where it had been in … 1997.

While the overall S&P 500 Index is down 2.7% in October, about flat for the three-month period, and up 2.8% for the year, the S&P 500 Energy Index is down 4.4% for the month, down 19% for the three-month period, and down 50% year-to-date.

On Friday, Exxon Mobil reported a 29% plunge in revenue in the third quarter, and a loss of $680 million – its third loss in a row, the three of them totaling $2.34 billion. And it warned of possible “significant impairment” charges on “assets with carrying values of approximately $25 billion to $30 billion,” mostly related to its North American shale gas operations. The day before, it had announced job cuts of 14,000 employees and contractors globally, including about 1,900 folks at its Houston headquarters.

Chevron [CVX], which completed the acquisition of Noble Energy in early October, announced this week that it would lay off about one quarter of Noble’s employees. Those layoffs are in addition to the cuts of 10%-15% it’s planning for its own workforce. The cuts at Noble amount to nearly 600 people, and the cuts at Chevron amount to 4,500 to 6,750 folks.

Exxon shares [XOM] have plunged 53% year-to-date to $32.62 on Friday, and thereby edged closer to their March 23 decade-low of $31.45. In July 2014, at the cusp of the Oil Bust, XOM reached a high of $135, having since then plunged by 75%. Exxon’s dividend yield is now over 10%, but everyone knows that, like other oil companies, Exxon could reduce or eliminate its dividend if push comes to shove.

Bankruptcies by US shale oil and gas companies with less heft and diversification than Exxon and Chevron have turned into a flood. The debts listed in the bankruptcy filings over the first nine months of 2020 reached $89 billion and surpassed year-total filings in the prior peak oil-bust year 2016.

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Has oil peaked?

October 10, 2020

Has oil peaked?

Last month, the world’s 4^th largest oil company—BP—predicted that the world will never again consume as much petroleum as it did last year. So, have we finally hit peak oil? And if so, what does that mean for our economy and our world?

There was fierce controversy in the first decade of this century over claims by petroleum geologists and energy commentators that peak oil was imminent (I was a figure in that debate, writing several books on the topic). Most of those early claims were based on analysis of oil depletion and consequent supply constraints. BP, however, is talking about a peak in oil demand—which, according to its forecast, could fall by more than 10 percent this decade and as much as 50 percent over the next 20 years if the world takes strong action to limit climate change.

Source: PeakOilBarrel.com; production in thousands of barrels per day.

Numbers from the US Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Review tell us that world oil production (not counting biofuels and natural gas liquids) actually hit its zenith, so far at least, in November 2018, nearly reaching 84.5 million barrels per day. After that, production rates stalled, then plummeted in response to collapsing demand during the coronavirus pandemic. The current production level stands at about 76 mb/d.

Many early peak oil analysts predicted that the maximum rate of oil production would be achieved in the 2005-to-2010 timeframe, after which supplies would decline minimally at first, then more rapidly, causing prices to skyrocket and the economy to crash.

Those forecasters were partly right and partly wrong. Conventional oil production did plateau starting in 2005, and oil prices soared in 2007, helping trigger the Great Recession.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ASIA, AUSTRALIA, BP STATISTICAL REVIEW, SOUTH EAST ASIA, VIETNAM

August 17, 2020

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)

Fig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak

From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia with approximately 1 mb/d each.

Fig 23: Thailand is the 3rd largest net importer in Asia …

Fig 24: … closely followed by Indonesia

Fig 25: Indonesia had higher oil consumption growth rates

Number 5 net importer is Australia with half million barrels/day

Fig 26: Australia’s net imports have dropped by 150 kb/d in 2019 due to a production increase

Fig 27: Vietnam experienced a tripling of net oil imports in the last 4 years
Fig 28: Malaysia is net importer since 2011

Fig 29: Other Asian countries have doubled net imports since 2015

Fig 30: By 2010 all these countries had become net oil importers

Previous links:

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-2

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-1

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)

July 13, 2020

Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)

Fig 1: Asian oil consumption is around 5 times higher than production

The production decline after the peak in 2015 is very modest. The size of the gap between consumption and production is mainly determined by consumption growth rather than by production decline. Will the Corona virus stop the gap growing?
Let’s have a look at which Asian countries consumed how much oil over the years

Fig 2: Asian oil consumption by country

Total Asia-Pacific oil consumption grew from 26.2 mb/d in 2009 to 36.2 mb/d in 2019 or by 10 mb/d This is net growth consisting of 11.6 mb/d gross growth (out of which 5.8 mb/d in China and 2 mb/d in India) and 1.6 mb/d gross decline (600 kb/d in Japan).

Fig 3: Subgroup with different trends

The subgroup in Fig 3 grew oil consumption at 330 kb/d pa after 2009 until 2017. Then countries above the dotted line (7.2 mb/d in 2019) peaked while the other countries below the dotted line (5.8 mb/d in 2019) continued to grow at 160 kb/d. The net effect was a flat oil consumption for 3 years.

Fig 4: Asia Pacific consumption by fuel

We see how important Diesel is. Fuel oil use is much lower than before the 2nd oil crisis in 1979. Naphta and other fuels are mainly used in the chemical industry.

Asian oil consumption growth is dominated by China and India.

Fig 5: Peak oil in China

Fig 6: China fuel consumption by type

While recent consumption curves in the above graphs look quite smooth, annual changes reveal a more complex picture with varying growth and even decline rates over time and in different countries.

Fig 7: Asian oil consumption growth and decline (gross)

In the last 5 years gross growth came down from 1.6 mb/d to 950 kb/d, dominated by China and India.

China’s oil consumption grew by a whopping 1.1 mb/d in 2010 as a result of a 2009/10 stimulus package amounting to almost 6% of GDP (estimated at RMB 2 Tr). https://treasury.gov.au/publication/chinese-macroeconomic-management-through-the-crisis-and-beyond/2011-01-chinese-macroeconomic-management-through-the-crisis-and-beyond/4-chinas-stimulus-package

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The World’s Most Important Oil Consumers And Producers

July 4, 2020

The World’s Most Important Oil Consumers And Producers

Following last week’s release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, I began to review and analyze the data. Today I take a deeper dive into the numbers on petroleum. Oil accounts for a third of the world’s energy consumption. That is the greatest share for any category of energy. In 2019, the world consumed a record 98.3 million barrels per day (BPD) of oil. This was nearly 1 million BPD higher than consumption in 2018, and marked the 10th consecutive record for global oil consumption.

Over the past 35 years, global oil consumption has risen by 39 million BPD, an average increase of 1.1 million BPD each year. Last year’s rise fell just short of that average.

In recent years, BP has begun to provide more granularity in the Review. In previous years, the oil consumption category included biofuels. Now, they have split biofuels into a separate category, so the consumption numbers above are for just oil and derivatives of natural gas and coal (e.g., synthetic oil).

The U.S. continues to lead all countries in the consumption of oil, but China has had the fastest consumption growth for several years. Below are the Top 10 global consumers of oil for 2019.

Related: Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And GasOil consumption fell in most developed countries and rose in most developing countries. A notable exception was Germany. Although consumption in OECD countries fell by 0.6% and consumption across Europe was down 0.3%, Germany bucked the trend and saw its consumption grow by 0.9%.

The biggest percentage increase in oil consumption was in Iran, which was the world’s 11th largest consumer. Demand there jumped by 10.0%. Iran was the only country in the world with a double-digit percentage increase in demand.

In contrast, double-digit decreases in oil demand were seen in Iceland (-12.7%), Venezuela (-11.6%), and Pakistan (-10.5%).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil consumption of containerships

June 7, 2020

Oil consumption of containerships

Preface. Since 90% of international goods move by ships, I was curious about how much fuel they burned. It’s a lot: The very large container ship CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin above, which can carry 18,000 20-foot containers, carries approximately 4.5 million gallons of fuel oil, which takes up 16,000 cubic meters (FW 2020). As much fuel as 300,000 15-gallon tank cars.

But these ships can carry 200,000 tons of goods, so they end up being more energy efficient than 300,000 cars (Stopford 2010, UNCTAD 2012).

Pound for pound and mile for mile, today’s ships are the most energy-efficient way to move freight. Table 1 shows the energy efficiency of different modes of transport by kilojoules of energy used to carry one ton of cargo a kilometer (KJ/tkm). As you can see, water and rail are literally tons and tons—orders of magnitude—more energy efficient than trucks and air transportation.

Table 1 Energy efficiency of transportation in kilojoules/ton/kilometer (Smil 2013), Ashby 2015)

(A) ……………Transportation mode
50……………. Oil tankers and bulk cargo ships
100–150….. Smaller cargo ships
250–600….. Trains
360………….. Barge
2000–4000 Trucks
30,000…….. Air freight
55,000…….. Helicopter

(A) Kilojoules of energy used to carry one ton of cargo one kilometer Transportation mode

***

Further details

Fuel consumption by a container ship is mostly a function of ship size and cruising speed, which follows an exponential function above 14 knots. So an 8,000 TEU container ship consumes 225 tons of bunker fuel per day at 24 knots, but at 21 knots consumption drops to 150 tons per day, a 33% decline. While shipping lines would prefer consuming the least amount of fuel by adopting lower speeds, this advantage must be mitigated with longer shipping times as well as assigning more ships on a pendulum service to maintain the same port call frequency. The main ship speed classes are (Notteboom 2009):

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Global oil discoveries far from breaking even with consumption

November 28, 2019

Global oil discoveries far from breaking even with consumption

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is oil-discoveries-rystad-2013-2018.jpg

Preface. According to Bloomberg (2016), oil discoveries in 2015 were the lowest since 1947, with just 2.7 billion barrels of conventional oil found globally (though Rystad calculated this differently at 5.6, nearly twice as much). Since the world burns 36.5 billion barrels of oil a year in 2019, we’re not even close to breaking even.

Rystad Energy (2019) in “Global discoveries on the rise as majors take a bigger bite” estimates barrels of oil equivalent, which includes both conventional oil and gas. Since oil is the master resource that makes gas, transportation, and all other goods and activities possible, I’ve taken the second number as the percent of oil in the BOE to come up with how much conventional oil was found. It falls way short of the 36.5 billion barrels we’re consuming. The pantry is emptying out, perhaps pushing the peak oil date forward in time as we continue to grow at 1% a year in oil consumption and put nothing at all back on the shelves. Peak Demand? Ha! Not until we’re forced to cut back from oil shortages.

2013 50:50 17.4 billion BOE  8.7 billion BOE oil  shortfall: 27.8 billion BOE
2014 54:46 16.0 billion BOE  7.4 billion BOE oil shortfall: 29.1 billion BOE
2015 61:39 14.4 billion BOE  5.6 billion BOE oil shortfall: 30.9 billion BOE
2016 57:43 8.4 billion BOE  3.6 billion BOE oil  shortfall: 32.9 billion BOE
2017 40:60 10.3 billion BOE 6.2 billion BOE oil shortfall: 30.3 billion BOE
2018 46:54 9.1 billion BOE 4.9 billion BOE oil  shortfall: 31.6 billion BOE

This doesn’t include fracked oil, but the IEA expects that to peak somewhere from now to 2023.

What it means is enjoy life while it’s still good, and stock your pantry while you’re at it.

***

Mikael, H. August 29, 2016. Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead. Bloomberg.

2016 figure only shows exploration results to August. Discoveries were just 230 million barrels in 1947 but skyrocketed the next year when Ghawar was discovered in Saudi Arabia, and is till the world's largest oil field. Source: Wood Mackenzie — 2016 figure only shows exploration results to August. Discoveries were just 230 million barrels in 1947 but skyrocketed the next year when Ghawar was discovered in Saudi Arabia, and it is still the world’s largest oil field, though recently it was learned that Ghawar is in decline at 3.5% a year. Source: Wood Mackenzie

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Sluggish Oil Demand To Keep A Lid On Oil Prices Amid Global Recession Fears

September 9, 2019

Sluggish Oil Demand To Keep A Lid On Oil Prices Amid Global Recession Fears

John Kemp, senior market analyst of commodities at Reuters, cites a new report via B.P.’s finance chief that indicates global oil consumption will be less than 1 million barrels per day this year, an ominous sign that the global economy is quickly deteriorating.

Kemp said growth is expected to be less than one million barrels per day (bpd) would represent an increase of less than 1% in global oil consumption and the lowest level of growth since 2014 and before that 2012.

Back then, declining demand was due to elevated oil prices averaging above $100 per barrel in real terms. Now prices trend in the $50-$60 range for WTI, confirming that even with low oil prices, demand is nowhere to be seen.

B.P.’s global oil consumption is the most bearish among other predictions from the International Energy Agency (+1.1 million bpd), OPEC (+1.1 million) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (+1.0 million).

Waning demand for oil across the world is the result of a global manufacturing recession festering underneath the surface. The global synchronized decline is structural and started in 4Q17, several months later, the trade war between the U.S. and China erupted in 1Q18.

Since global GDP drives oil consumption. Kemp shows that the World Bank (“Global economic prospects,” June 2019) data is indicating world growth will be in a slump this year. Estimates show global GDP has been revised lower from 3.0% in 2018 to just 2.6% in 2019.

Global GDP growth is at the same level as 2014 and before that 2012. So it makes sense why oil consumption has dropped to a five year low, it’s because the global economy has lost tremendous amounts of momentum, now reversing into a vicious downturn.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

European oil consumption after North Sea Peak Oil

November 28, 2018

European oil consumption after North Sea Peak Oil

Hors-d’oeuvre

On the streets of Paris: 24 Nov 2018

Fuel-protests_24Nov2018 Fuel price protests on the Champs Elysees

France-price-fuels_2008-2018 https://france-inflation.com/prix-carburants.php

Reunion_truck_gilets-jaunes

20 Nov 2018: The “gilets jaunes” have a hard time to convince truck drivers to join their movement
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/prix-des-carburants/gilets-jaunes-les-routiers-divises_3045615.html

They were more successful on the French island of Réunion in the Indian Ocean, where blocked roads and petrol rationing resulted in empty supermarket shelves, highlighting how vulnerable our just-in-time society is.

Reunion_barrages_25Nov2018 25/11/2018 Road blocks in Réunion
https://www.linfo.re/la-reunion/societe/barrages-le-point-sur-le-reseau-routier

Reunion_fuel-shortage_Nov2018 Petrol lines in St Denis, €20 rationing, shops closed, shelves emptying, medical supply disruptions
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/automobile/essence/la-reunion-une-ile-asphyxiee_3048073.html

Oil statistics

European oil production peaked in 2000 at almost 7 mb/d, with a production plateau above 6.8 mb/d lasting for 7 years between 1996 and 2002. 17 years after the peak, production was around half of what it was at peak.

Europe_production_imports_1965-2017 Fig 1: Europe oil consumption, net oil imports and production

BP’s definitions are as follows: “Oil production includes crude oil, shale oil, tar sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids – the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives of coal and natural gas.

Oil consumption is from inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.

Notes: Differences between these world consumption figures and world production statistics are accounted for by stock changes, consumption of non-petroleum additives”

In Fig 1 and 3, net oil imports are calculated as the difference between production and consumption.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Has The World Started To Kick Its Oil Addiction?

April 9, 2018

Has The World Started To Kick Its Oil Addiction?

Until a decade ago, most of the world was a captive customer of oil—consumers would pay any price for gasoline and oil demand was soaring regardless of the surging oil prices.

But recently, many countries around the world have started to show more sensitivity to oil prices—oil demand grows as their economies grow, but oil demand is also more susceptible to oil price swings, with the oil price-consumption correlation behaving more like an everyday product, according to data by Washington-based ClearView Energy Partners and research by Bloomberg Gadfly columnist Liam Denning.

Although it’s at least a decade or more too early to call the end of the world’s oil addiction, the research and data suggest that in a growing number of large oil-consuming economies oil demand now correlates negatively with oil prices. In other words, consumption drops when prices rise and vice versa—a common economic concept applicable to almost every other product on the market.

With oil, this has not always been the case.

ClearView Energy and Denning analyzed data for three 10-year periods ending in 2006, 2011, and 2016, respectively.

During the first 10-year period until 2006, countries comprising four-fifths of oil demand, including the United States, India, China, and Russia, showed a positive correlation between oil demand and their gross domestic product (GDP) and between demand and oil prices. In the decade before the financial crisis in 2007-2008, oil demand soared almost everywhere in the world, despite the fact that oil prices were also rallying. This was the period of Chinese industrialization and construction boom which gobbled up oil at any price. In most of the world, the picture was the same—oil demand rose together with rising economies and with rising oil prices, suggesting that those countries were captive customers of oil.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Oil Demand Is A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

January 19, 2018

Peak Oil Demand Is A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

Will oil demand peak within five years? 15 years? Or not until 2040 or 2050?

The precise date at which oil demand hits a high point and then enters into decline has been the subject of much debate, and a topic that has attracted a lot of interest just in the last few years. Consumption levels in some parts of the world have already begun to stagnate, and more and more automakers have begun to ratchet up their plans for electric vehicles.

But the exact date the world will hit peak demand kind of misses the whole point, argues a new report, which is notable since it is coauthored by BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale, along with Bassam Fattouh, the director of The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

They argue that the focus shouldn’t be on the date at which oil demand peaks, but rather the fact that the peak is coming at all. “The significance of peak oil is that it signals a shift from an age of perceived scarcity to an age of abundance,” they wrote. In other words, oil won’t be on the only game in town when it comes to fueling the global transportation system, which will have far-reaching consequences for oil producers and consumers alike.

The exact date is unknowable, and in any event, the year in which the world does hit peak consumption won’t result in some abrupt “discontinuity of behavior,” the report argues. Demand growth will slow and then decline, but probably won’t fall off a cliff. So, the exact date of peak oil demand is “not particularly interesting.”

Nevertheless, the implications of a looming peak in oil consumption are massive. Without an economic transformation, or at least serious diversification, oil-producing nations that depend on oil revenues for both economic growth and to finance public spending, face an uncertain future.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s oil peak 45 years after the US peak

September 10, 2016

China’s oil peak 45 years after the US peak

Empty_roads_Hangzhou_G20

Fig 1: Oil crisis in China like in 2005? No. By order: Free roads for G20 in Hangzhou

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/china-hangzhou-propaganda-facelift-g20-summit

Strategically published only days before the G20 summit the Wall Street Journal had an article on peak oil in China:

China’s Decline in Oil Production Echoes Globally

25/8/2016

chinapeakoil

Fig 2: A flat production peak in China
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-decline-in-oil-production-echoes-globally-1472122393

It hasn’t echoed during the G20 summit.

If China is at peak oil now, then China is where the US was in 1970, 45 years ago. Let’s first have a look at what happened in the US. We limit ourselves to 30 years because 2000 was the last “normal year” before 9/11 and the Iraq war.

US_30_years_after_1970_peak

Fig 3: the first 30 years after the US oil peak

When US oil production peaked in 1970, US oil net imports were 3.4 mb/d. 30 years, 2 oil crises and 1 Desert Storm later the US imported 12 mb/d, a total of 85 Gb during that period.

Of course it is nearly impossible to compare the US and China. The IEA has a table on Chinese oil demand in its World Energy Outlook WEO 2015:

US_China_oil_demand_to_2040_WEO_2015

Fig 4: Oil demand table in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2015

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weo2015/

Note the opposing trends for the US and China:

Comparison_US_China_oil_consumption_200-2040_WEO2015

Let’s put the Chinese consumption into a graph, together with an assumed production profile, (similar to Fig 3):

China_oil_production_consumption_2010_to_2045

Fig 5: China’s oil imports for several scenarios

We assume that Chinese decline after peak production will follow the US pattern. On the consumption side the dashed line is the New Policies Scenario in the IEA WEO 2015, the thin straight line a 1.5% growth scenario starting with 2016. The IEA also assumes a CAAGR of 1.5% but applies it to a lower consumption level in 2014, explaining the difference in the later years.

For orientation and comparison, the dotted line shows the US consumption path shifted by 45 years to the Chinese consumption level in the production peak year 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Oil in Asia and oil import trends (part 2)

June 26, 2016

Peak Oil in Asia and oil import trends (part 2)

We pick up the question from part 1:

Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2015_fill_in-2035

Fig 11: Homework for governments

Let’s have a look where all the net imports into Asia have come from in the past:

Asia_net_imports_2001-2015

Fig 12: Asia net imports – overview

BP’s data on inter area oil movements start in 2001. Oil imports from the Middle East increased from 11.5 mb/d in 2001 to 15.5 mb/d in 2015 or 4 mb/d. This is an amazing “performance “ because Middle East exports to all countries increased only by 0.8 mb/d (crude) and 0.7 mb/d (products) in 15 years!

World_crude_oil_exports_2001-2015

Fig 13: World’s crude oil exports

Global crude oil exports in 2015 were not higher than in 2007. Canadian exports (dirty tar sands mainly to the US) increased by 1.9 mb/d since 2001.

Middle East exports to Asia

Fig 14: Middle East oil exports share to Asia

Asia’s share of Middle East exports has increased from 60% in 2001 to 75% in 2015. Let’s have a look to which countries/regions these Middle East exports go:

Middle_East_oil_exports_by_destination_2001-2015

Fig 15 Middle East oil exports by destination

In the above graph we stack Asian countries on top of other countries which shows that Asia took away Middle East exports from the US and Europe which are in decline.

So how would that continue into the future? Let’s do a very simplified trend analysis without regard to oil prices, the type of oil, oil reserves and geo-political events and assuming no declining oil production in Asia.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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