Peak Oil in Asia and oil import trends (part 2)
We pick up the question from part 1:
Fig 11: Homework for governments
Let’s have a look where all the net imports into Asia have come from in the past:
Fig 12: Asia net imports – overview
BP’s data on inter area oil movements start in 2001. Oil imports from the Middle East increased from 11.5 mb/d in 2001 to 15.5 mb/d in 2015 or 4 mb/d. This is an amazing “performance “ because Middle East exports to all countries increased only by 0.8 mb/d (crude) and 0.7 mb/d (products) in 15 years!
Fig 13: World’s crude oil exports
Global crude oil exports in 2015 were not higher than in 2007. Canadian exports (dirty tar sands mainly to the US) increased by 1.9 mb/d since 2001.
Middle East exports to Asia
Fig 14: Middle East oil exports share to Asia
Asia’s share of Middle East exports has increased from 60% in 2001 to 75% in 2015. Let’s have a look to which countries/regions these Middle East exports go:
Fig 15 Middle East oil exports by destination
In the above graph we stack Asian countries on top of other countries which shows that Asia took away Middle East exports from the US and Europe which are in decline.
So how would that continue into the future? Let’s do a very simplified trend analysis without regard to oil prices, the type of oil, oil reserves and geo-political events and assuming no declining oil production in Asia.
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