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Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following:
- Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future.
- “Work backward” to see how much oil is needed, based on how much oil was used for a given level of GDP in the past. Adjust this amount for hoped-for efficiency gains and transfers to other fuel uses.
- Verify that there is actually enough oil available to support this level of growth in oil consumption.
In fact, this seems to be the approach used by most forecasting agencies, including EIA, IEA and BP. It seems to me that this approach has a fundamental flaw. It doesn’t consider the possibility of continued low oil prices and the impact that these low oil prices are likely to have on future oil production. Hoped-for future GDP growth may not be possible if oil prices, as well as other commodity prices, remain low.
Future Oil Resources Seem to Be More Than Adequate
It is easy to get the idea that we have a great deal of oil resources in the ground. For example, if we start with BP Statistical Review of World Energy, we see that reported oil reserves at the end of 2013 were 1,687.9 billion barrels. This corresponds to 53.3 years of oil production at 2013 production levels.
If we look at the United States Geological Services 2012 report for one big grouping–undiscovered conventional oil resources for the world excluding the United States, we get a “mean” estimate of 565 billion barrels. This corresponds to another 17.8 years of production at the 2013 level of oil production.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece: It’s Time For Your Default And Debt Restructuring
Greece: It’s Time For Your Default And Debt Restructuring
For some reason, people think a sovereign default, and a subsequent debt restructuring such as Greece’s government faces, is something that is conceivable – the proverbial asteroid hitting the earth – but which has never actually happened.
Sometimes, raw data says more than words. According to a dataset from the National Bureau of Economic Research, there have been at least 153 sovereign debt restructurings since 1980.
Ideally, Greece’s government will be able to reduce the overall debt load, now around 192%, to something manageable, perhaps around 50% of GDP. This process is rife with danger, alas, and I suggest consulting with Russia (which had a default and debt restructuring in 1998-2000 that reduced the net present value of the outstanding debt by about 50%) to avoid some of the potentially bad outcomes, such as widespread asset stripping by foreign entities (which is already going on), or the loss of domestic sovereignity and the installation of some unelected EU-controlled autocrat, as arguably happened in Italy under Mario Monti. It also happened in Greece, under unelected technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos, who was previously the governor of the Bank of Greece, and then afterwards became the Vice President of the European Central Bank. Papademos argued against a eurozone deal to write off half of Greece’s debts. He wanted a far smaller “haircut,” because a 50% writeoff would hurt banks.
Since Papademos’ stay of execution for the bankers, there have been a long series of “bailouts” by various official entities beginning May 2010, funded by directly or indirectly by taxpayers outside of Greece, notably Germany and France. None of this has helped Greece’s situation in any way. The Greek government’s debt/GDP was 130% at the end of 2010. A 50% writeoff would have reduced this to about 65%. The eurozone’s official government debt-to-GDP ratio limit is 60%.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World
As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World
During the prior economic cycle of 2003-2007, one question I asked again and again was: Is the US running on a business cycle or a credit cycle?
That question was prompted by a series of data I have tracked for decades; data that tells a very important story about the character of the US economy. Specifically, that data series is the relationship of total US Credit Market Debt relative to US GDP.
Let’s put this in simple English. What is total US Credit Market Debt? It’s an approximation for total debt in the US economy at any point in time. It’s the sum total of US Government debt, corporate debt, household debt, state and local municipal debt, financial sector and non-corporate business debt outstanding. It’s a good representation of the dollar amount of leverage in the economy.
GDP is simply the sum total of the goods and services we produce as a nation.
So the relationship I like to look at is how financial leverage in the economy changes over time relative to the growth of the actual economy itself. Doing so reveals an important long-term trend. From the official inception of this series in the early 1950’s until the early 1980’s, growth in this representation of systemic leverage in the US grew at a moderate pace point to point. But things blasted off in the early 1980’s as the baby boom generation came of age. I find two important demographic developments help explain this change.
First, there’s an old saying on Wall Street: People don’t repeat the mistakes of their parents. Instead, they repeat the mistakes of their grandparents. From the early 1950’s through the early 1980’s, the generation that lived through the Great Depression was largely alive and well, and able to “tell” their stories.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
An Important Economic Indicator – Money Velocity – Crashes Far Worse than During the Great Depression
An Important Economic Indicator – Money Velocity – Crashes Far Worse than During the Great Depression
Underneath the Propaganda, the Economy Is In BAD Shape …
We noted 3 years ago that the velocity of money – an important economic indicator – is lower than during the Great Depression.
Things have gotten even worse since since then …
By way of background, the velocity of money is the rate at which people spend money.
In other words, it’s the speed at which a dollar moves from one person to the next through the economy.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explains:
The velocity of money can be calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply … which can be used to gauge the economy’s strength or people’s willingness to spend money. When there are more transactions being made throughout the economy, velocity increases, and the economy is likely to expand. The opposite is also true: Money velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made; therefore the economy is likely to shrink.
The St. Louis Fed labels the velocity of money as “Gross Domestic Product/St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base” … and provides the following data on the velocity of money between the start of the Great Depression and today:
Here’s the money velocity right before the Great Depression hit:
Here’s the money velocity from the darkest point during the Great Depression:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Forget the TPP – Wikileaks Releases Documents from the Equally Shady “Trade in Services Agreement,” or TISA
Forget the TPP – Wikileaks Releases Documents from the Equally Shady “Trade in Services Agreement,” or TISA
If it sounds complicated, it is. The important point is that this trade agreement contains a crucial discussion of governments’ abilities to meaningfully protect civil liberties. And it is not being treated as a human rights discussion. It is being framed solely as an economic issue, ignoring the implications for human rights, and it is being held in a classified document that the public is now seeing months after it was negotiated, and only because it was released through WikiLeaks.
The process is also highly secretive—in fact, trade agreement texts are classified. While the executive branch does consult with members of Congress, even congressional staffers with security clearance have until recently been prevented from seeing the texts. Furthermore, certain trade industry advisers are allowed access to U.S. negotiating objectives and negotiators that the public and public interest groups do not have.
– From the Slate article: Privacy Is Not a Barrier to Trade
If you haven’t heard about about the Trade in Services Agreement, aka TISA, don’t worry, you’re not alone. While I had heard of it before, I never read anything substantial about it until today. What sparked my reading interest on the subject were a series of very troubling articles published via several media outlets following a document dump by Wikileaks. Here’s how the whistleblower organization describes the TISA leak on it document release page:
WikiLeaks releases today 17 secret documents from the ongoing TISA (Trade In Services Agreement) negotiations which cover the United States, the European Union and 23 other countries including Turkey, Mexico, Canada, Australia, Pakistan, Taiwan & Israel — which together comprise two-thirds of global GDP.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
How To Spot A Bubble
How To Spot A Bubble
We’ve been entertaining ourselves to no end the past couple days with a ‘vast array’ of articles that purport to provide us with ‘expert’ opinion on the question of whether we are witnessing a bubble or not. Got the views of Goldman’s David Kostin, Robert Shiller, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Howard Marks.
But although these things can be quite amusing because while they’re at it, of course, the ‘experts’ say the darndest things (check Bloomberg ‘Intelligence’s Carl Riccadonna: “You had equity markets benefit from QE, but eventually QE also jump-started the broader recovery..Ultimately everyone’s benefiting.”), we can’t get rid of this one other nagging question: who needs an expert to tell them that today’s markets are riddled with bubbles, given that they are the size of obese gigantosauruses about to pump out quadruplets?
Moreover, when inviting the opinions of these ‘authorities’, you inevitably also invite denial and contradiction (re: Siegel). And before you know what hit you, it turns into something like the climate change ‘debate’: just because a handful of ‘experts’ deny what’s right in front of their faces as tens of thousands of scientists do not, doesn’t mean there’s a valid discussion there. It’s just noise with an agenda.
And though the global climate system is infinitely more complex than the very vast majority of people acknowledge, fact remains that a plethora of machine-driven and assisted human activities emit greenhouse gases, greenhouse gases trap heat and higher concentrations of greenhouse gases trap more heat. In very similar ways, central banks’ stimuli (love that word) play havoc, and blow bubbles, with and within the economic system. Ain’t no denying the obvious child.
But even more than the climate ‘debate’, the bubble expert articles made us think of a Jerry Seinfeld episode called The Opera, which ends with Jerry doing a stand-up shtick that goes like this:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession
2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession
If we are not heading into a recession, why does our economy continue to act as if that is precisely what is happening? As you will see below, we learned this week that factory orders have declined year over year for six months in a row. That is something that has never happened outside of a time of recession. We have also seen new orders for consumer goods fall dramatically. In fact, the only time we have seen a more dramatic decline in that number was during the last recession. And when you add these two items to what I have written about previously, the overall economic picture becomes even more disturbing. Corporate profits have fallen for two quarters in a row, our exports fell by 7.6 percent during the first quarter of 2015, and U.S. GDP contracted by 0.7 percent during Q1. Even though Barack Obama and the mainstream media are willingly ignoring them, the truth is that these numbers are absolutely screaming that we are going into a new recession.
Sometimes, a picture is worth more than a thousand words, and I believe that is certainly the case with the chart that I have posted below. It comes from Zero Hedge, and it shows that factory orders have declined year over year for six months in a row. The only times when this has ever happened before have been when the U.S. economy has been in recession…
When we look at new orders for consumer goods, we see a similar thing happening. This next chart comes from Charles Hugh Smith, and it really doesn’t need much explanation…
From Whence Cometh Our Wealth—–The People’s Labor Or The Fed’s Printing Press?
From Whence Cometh Our Wealth—–The People’s Labor Or The Fed’s Printing Press?
It is hard to believe that in these allegedly enlightened times this question even needs to be asked. Are there really educated adults who believe that by dropping helicopter money conjured from thin air, the central bank can actually make society wealthier?
Well, yes there are. They spread this lunacy from the most respectable MSM platforms. And, no, I’m not talking about professor Krugman and his New York Times column. At least, he pontificates from a Keynesian framework that has a respectable, if erroneous, intellectual heritage.
What I am talking about here is the mindless bunkum issued by so-called financial journalists who swish around Wall Street and Washington exchanging knowing tidbits with policy-makers, deal-makers and each other. Call it the bubble finance “narrative”, and recognize that its gets more uncoupled from economic facts, logic and plausibility with each passing day in the casino.
The estimable folks at The Automatic Earth put a bright spotlight on this crucial matter this morning, even if not by design. Their trademark daily vintage photo was a 1911 picture of a family including all the kids picking berries in the field; they were making GDP the old fashioned way.
In its usual manner, the site’s “debt rattle” list of links to timely reads followed, and the first was a Bloomberg View opinion piece called“QE For The People: Monetary Policy For The Next Recession” by one Clive Crook. It was actually a case for literally dropping central bank money from the skies to enable policy-makers to better “support demand and keep their economies running”.
In thoughtfully supplying a photo of a helicopter in full flight to accompany Crook’s discourse, the Bloomberg graphics department crystalized the essential economic issue of our times. Namely, whether wealth is made by the Berrie Pickers or the Money Printers.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Central Banks Are Pointing A Weapon Of Financial Mass Destruction—–Right At The Global Bond Markets
Central Banks Are Pointing A Weapon Of Financial Mass Destruction—–Right At The Global Bond Markets
For the first time in its country’s history, Portugal sold 6 month T-bills at a negative yield. The 300 million euros ($333 million) worth of bills due in November 2015 sold at an average yield of minus 0.002%. A negative yield means investors buying these securities will get back less money from the government than they paid when the debt matures.
To put this in perspective, the 10 year note in Portugal now yields just 2.38%, down from 18% a mere three years ago. Back in 2012, creditors grew wary of the countries referred to as PIIG’s (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Greece) and their ability to pay back the massive amounts of outstanding debt. Consequently, creditors drove interest rates dramatically higher to reflect the added risk of potential defaults.
If a person had fallen into a deep slumber in the midst of the 2012 Eurozone debt crisis and awoke a week ago, they may make some reasonable assumptions as to why there was a collapse of Portuguese bond yields on the long end of the yield curve; and even displayed negative yields on the short end.
Perhaps Portugal had finally balanced their budget? Or even is now enjoying a budget surplus? To the contrary, that is not even close to the truth. Portugal has not balanced its budget…its budget deficit now sits at over 3% of GDP.
Or perhaps there was a massive restructuring of outstanding debt? Upon joining the Euro, Portuguese national debt was below the 60% limit set by the Maastricht Treaty criteria. By the start of the debt crisis in 2009, that level of public sector debt had edged up to 70% of GDP. However, the recession of 2009-12, saw a rapid increase in the level of debt. Despite recent efforts to reduce public spending and austerity measures pursued by the government, Portugal still has an immense and growing debt load, with a current National Debt to GDP ratio of over 130%.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Pressure Just Shifted from Greece to the US and EU
The Pressure Just Shifted from Greece to the US and EU
With the 3rd US Q1 GDP print coming in at -0.7% (-3% if not for inventories), perhaps the media spotlights – and lively imagination – can move away from Greece for a few weeks. The US has enough problems of its own, it would seem. For one thing, its Q1 GDP is now worse than Greece’s. Of course its debt is also much higher, just not to the IMF and ECB. But let’s leave that one be for the moment. Though a bit of perspective works miracles at times.
Of course it’s not a technical recession yet for the US, which only recently presented a +4% quarter with a straight face, and there’s always the ‘multiple seasonal adjustment’ tool. But still. It’s ugly.
The IMF confirmed on Thursday that Athens has the right to ask for “bundled” repayments in June. “Countries do have the option of bundling when they have a series of payments in a given month … making a single payment at the end of that month,” as per an IMF spokesman. Who added that the last country to do so was Zambia three decades ago.
That leaves Athens, in theory, with a 30-day window, not a 7-day one. This of course takes the pressure cooker away from Athens, and the media attention as well. There is no immediate risk of a default, or a Grexit, or anything like that. The negotiations with the creditors will continue, but the conversation will change with time less of an issue.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds
Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds
Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced in without accepting it is actually significantly higher.
There are two possible approaches to assessing the true rate of price inflation. You can either reverse all the tweaks government statisticians have implemented over the decades to reduce the apparent rate, or you can collect a statistically significant sample of price data independently and turn that into an index. John Williams of Shadowstats.com is well known for his work on the former approach, but until recently I was unaware that anyone was attempting the latter. That is until Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services drew my attention to the Chapwood Index, which deserves wider publicity.
This is from the website: “The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.” It is, therefore, statistically significant, and it consistently shows price inflation to be much higher than that indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The table below shows this difference since 2011, and how it affects real GDP.
Sources: Chapwood Index, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figures may not total due to rounding.
The Chapwood number in the table is the simple arithmetic average of the 50 cities. The year-in, year-out 10% inflation rate is notable. Furthermore, Chapwood shows cumulative inflation rate as shown by the CPI for the four years to be understated by 39.9%, and using Chapwood numbers in place of the GDP deflator, real GDP has slumped a cumulative total of 21.4% over the four years.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Global Trade Dives Most since the Financial Crisis
Global Trade Dives Most since the Financial Crisis
How great was the global economy in the first quarter?
We know the US economy was crummy. The revised GDP estimate will likely sink into red mire. Hence the heated proposals these days, including at the Fed, to apply “a second round of seasonal adjustment” that would “correct” the first-quarter GDP estimate, no matter how bad, into positive territory. An elegant way of covering up an unsightly sore.
So was it just a crummy quarter in the US, or was it a global thing, in which case we might have to apply a “second round of” whatever to adjust the global downturn out of the picture?
Because here is the thing: in the first quarter, one of the crucial measures of the global economy – global trade – slumped the most since the Financial Crisis. But ironically, it wasn’t because of the USA.
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, just released its latest Merchandise World Trade Monitor, which covers global import volumes as well as global export volumes. The index dropped 0.1% in March to 136.5, after having already dropped 0.7% in February, and 1.7% in January. The index, which was set at 100 in 2005, is now down 2.5% from the peak of 140.0 in December. That 3.5-point decline was the sharpest since the Financial Crisis.
This chart, going back to January 2012, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the current state of the global economy:
To mitigate the volatility of these kinds of monthly numbers, the CPB offers a measure of trade volume “momentum,” which it defines as “the change in the three months average up to the report month relative to the average of the preceding three months.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Analysis: China Stalls on Debt Reforms
Analysis: China Stalls on Debt Reforms
Background
The Chinese government has a $3.5 trillion-dollar problem in the form of local government debt. Most of it accrued in the years between 2007 and 2014, when China’s total debt spiked from $7.4 trillion to $28 trillion, or from 158% of GDP to 282%.
At fault was a massive government fiscal and monetary stimulus program launched in the wake of the global financial crisis. The program succeeded in producing enough infrastructure and real estate projects to weather the economic storm admirably, but it did so at the cost of creating excess supply and a long list of insolvent ventures, many of which were financed by local governments.
Now Beijing is faced with the task of cleaning up this mess, and doing so won’t be easy. Local governments have since been capped on the amount of debt they can take on, and a pilot project for converting local debt to municipal bonds is slowly being implemented, though there are questions concerning the market demand for such bonds.
There will be tradeoffs every step of the way since this is often a question of short-term pain for long-term financial stability. Many observers are starting to draw parallels between China’s current situation and that of Japan’s leading up to its major economic crash in the 1990s. Both suffered from high levels of debt that policymakers were hesitant to write off for fear of a crash; both faced conflicts of interest from state-owned banks; and both bounced their debt problem around by providing easy liquidity in times of tepid growth.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
