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Tag Archives: gdp
End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop
End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop The U.S. stock market has finally hit a speed bump after more than six years of a Fed- and QE-driven rally. The S&P 500 is up 232% since March of 2009 despite this unprecedented stimulus in the feeblest economic recovery in history. But since […]
Is Canada Next?
Is Canada Next? “All of that negative news has kind of put a downer on consumer sentiment,” is how Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Thomson Reuters, explained the crummy consumer confidence reading on Friday. The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Canada Primary Consumer Sentiment Index haddropped to 51.6, the lowest so far this year and well below […]
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High
Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil is needed, based on how much […]
Greece: It’s Time For Your Default And Debt Restructuring
Greece: It’s Time For Your Default And Debt Restructuring For some reason, people think a sovereign default, and a subsequent debt restructuring such as Greece’s government faces, is something that is conceivable – the proverbial asteroid hitting the earth – but which has never actually happened. Sometimes, raw data says more than words. According to […]
As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World
As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World When confidence cracks, we’ll see it there first During the prior economic cycle of 2003-2007, one question I asked again and again was: Is the US running on a business cycle or a credit cycle? That question was prompted by a series of data I have tracked […]
An Important Economic Indicator – Money Velocity – Crashes Far Worse than During the Great Depression
An Important Economic Indicator – Money Velocity – Crashes Far Worse than During the Great Depression Underneath the Propaganda, the Economy Is In BAD Shape … We noted 3 years ago that the velocity of money – an important economic indicator – is lower than during the Great Depression. Things have gotten even worse since since […]
Forget the TPP – Wikileaks Releases Documents from the Equally Shady “Trade in Services Agreement,” or TISA
Forget the TPP – Wikileaks Releases Documents from the Equally Shady “Trade in Services Agreement,” or TISA If it sounds complicated, it is. The important point is that this trade agreement contains a crucial discussion of governments’ abilities to meaningfully protect civil liberties. And it is not being treated as a human rights discussion. It is […]
How To Spot A Bubble
How To Spot A Bubble We’ve been entertaining ourselves to no end the past couple days with a ‘vast array’ of articles that purport to provide us with ‘expert’ opinion on the question of whether we are witnessing a bubble or not. Got the views of Goldman’s David Kostin, Robert Shiller, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, […]
2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession
2 Things That Are Happening Right Now That Have Never Happened Outside Of A Recession If we are not heading into a recession, why does our economy continue to act as if that is precisely what is happening? As you will see below, we learned this week that factory orders have declined year over year for […]
From Whence Cometh Our Wealth—–The People’s Labor Or The Fed’s Printing Press?
From Whence Cometh Our Wealth—–The People’s Labor Or The Fed’s Printing Press? It is hard to believe that in these allegedly enlightened times this question even needs to be asked. Are there really educated adults who believe that by dropping helicopter money conjured from thin air, the central bank can actually make society wealthier? Well, yes there […]
Central Banks Are Pointing A Weapon Of Financial Mass Destruction—–Right At The Global Bond Markets
Central Banks Are Pointing A Weapon Of Financial Mass Destruction—–Right At The Global Bond Markets For the first time in its country’s history, Portugal sold 6 month T-bills at a negative yield. The 300 million euros ($333 million) worth of bills due in November 2015 sold at an average yield of minus 0.002%. A negative […]
The Pressure Just Shifted from Greece to the US and EU
The Pressure Just Shifted from Greece to the US and EU With the 3rd US Q1 GDP print coming in at -0.7% (-3% if not for inventories), perhaps the media spotlights – and lively imagination – can move away from Greece for a few weeks. The US has enough problems of its own, it would […]
Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds
Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced […]
