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Since April the sea around Scotland has risen by an average of 43 centimeters, reports the Sunday Herald, a rate of rise that far exceeds even the worst-case projections of climate scientists. Caught by surprise, the government is preparing emergency evacuation plans for residents of coastal areas and other low-lying areas threatened by the encroaching seas. They urge the public to stay calm but to be ready to move on short notice should the situation deteriorate further.

The Sunday Herald, of course, never published any such report, although one suspects it would have liked to, and certainly the government never prepared any evacuation plans. But the fact remains that in the eight months between April and December 2015 the seas around Scotland rose by an average of 43 centimeters – exceeding the 20-40 centimeter rise predicted for Edinburgh over the next 73 years in the Sunday Herald article that was the subject of Euan Mearns’ recent terrifying risk post.

And no one noticed.

Why did no one notice? Because the 43-centimeter rise in 2015 was a result of seasonal sea level variations that have been going on in Scotland for centuries and which, so far as I know, have yet to have any significant impact on anything. A ~40cm rise and fall in sea level in a single year in Scotland is in fact by no means unusual.

And I myself didn’t notice this until just recently because I hadn’t looked at the monthly tide gauge data (the tide gauge graphs Euan featured in his post plotted annual means). Here I rectify this omission by presenting plots of Scottish tide gauge monthly data. First Aberdeen, the only long-term record in the country. (Sea levels in this and following graphs are given in centimeters so they can be compared directly with the Sunday Herald’s prediction of 20-40 cm of sea level rise by 2090. The data are from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)):

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Terrifying Risk of Climate Change in Scotland

September 6, 2017

The Terrifying Risk of Climate Change in Scotland

“Major parts of Scotland’s vital infrastructure are under threat from coastal erosion and flooding, according to the latest government assessments of the dangers of climate change.

Thousands of homes and businesses and long stretches of roads and railway lines are also at risk. So are power stations, wind farms, sewers, bridges, and farmland, as well as many other crucial facilities and even golf courses.

Seabirds, fish and plants are endangered, as well as butterflies, food crops and peat bogs. Scotland can expect more rain, more droughts, more storms, more wild fires, more landslides, more pests and more diseases – and snow is disappearing from the mountains.”

I don’t know if its my imagination, but the media seem to have gone into overdrive reporting the terrifying risks of climate change alongside too-cheap-to-meter solar and wind power that is to be our salvation. Last week, the Sunday Herald carried one of the worst pieces of climate change doomer porn I’ve ever seen: Revealed: climate change and the terrifying risk to Scotland. One problem I have with this post is that The Herald article does not link to the reports cited. Reference is made to Scottish National Heritage (a government agency) and The UK Committee on Climate Change. Friends of The Earth and World Wildlife Fund are also mentioned. Roger Andrews helped me out and compiled the references listed at the end of this post upon which I assume Rob Edwards reporting for the Sunday Herald used in compiling his article.

In my last post on UK flooding I felt inclined to forgive the BBC for simply reporting the dross published by accademics in Science. However, I will not forgive Rob Edwards and the editorial staff at The Herald for uncritically hyping the contents of what appear to be wildly inaccurate government and NGO reports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blackout

November 12, 2016

Blackout

Last week I gave a talk at The Scottish Oil Club in Edinburgh that was well received. The slide deck can be down loaded here. Since then we have been on high blackout alert since the UK weather has turned cold, wet and snowy with little wind at times. And there are 20 nuclear power stations closed in France creating an import shortage. This post summarises my talk using 14 out of 36 slides.

Privatisation of the energy companies led to regulation and political interference. Once run by engineers, energy policy is now dictated by arts graduates. The three figures are Alex Salmond, former leader of the SNP, Baroness Worthington who was the lead author on the UK 2008 climate change act and member of Friends of The Earth and Lord Deben (John Gummer), chairman of the Climate Change Committee that informs energy policy.

We are in an era where energy policy is dictated by treaties and targets, none of which are rooted in science, engineering, physics or economics. It’s all made possible by simply demanding that the public pays. This is a game played by elite bureaucrats at the expense of public well-being, and wrecking energy security. The public have begun to fight back!

Scotland currently leads the World in tennis and in bidding for the highest percent possible of renewable energy production. Erecting solar panels on north facing roofs in one of the darkest countries on Earth epitomises how low the intellectual level of our politicians and academics has sunk. Wind turbines everywhere are despoiling our landscape that was once one of our main assets. David MacKay did us a great service in his final interview before he died earlier this year stating “The idea that renewable energy can power the UK is an appalling delusion” from which I conclude that the fools in Holyrood and Westminster are deluded.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Thoughts on the Media and the EU Referendum 190

July 3, 2016

Thoughts on the Media and the EU Referendum 190

Al Jazeera’s Listening Post programme on the EU referendum media coverage was just broadcast. They only used about 5% of what they recorded of me, split into four soundbites to fit their format.

I think the much more interesting points I made were not used at all. So just for the record, I also made these points:

a) I did not accept the argument that the BBC was biased in the referendum campaign towards Brexit. Indeed especially in the last few days, I thought it was biased towards Remain.
b) However the BBC had been guilty of helping promote Brexit by giving Farage massive and disproportionate publicity for many years, from when UKIP was a negligible electoral force. They were always willing to give right wings views publicity but not left wing views.
c) The right wing print media were indeed a major problem distorting democracy. However the solution to this should be to break up media ownership, not impose government control of content.
d) Project Fear had not succeeded in the Scottish referendum. It had seen a 35 point unionist lead cut to a 10 point lead, making it one of the most disastrous campaigns in history. The question of why Project Fear “succeeded” in Scotland but not the EU referendum was therefore a false one.
e) Media coverage focused on the despised political class rather than the facts.

I do not blame Al Jazeera at all or accuse them of doing anything unethical – they were looking for soundbites for their broadcast. But I do think the above points which they did not broadcast, were a great deal more interesting than their programme!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Scotland Threatens To Veto Brexit

June 26, 2016

Scotland Threatens To Veto Brexit

Yesterday we warned that the biggest threat to the UK political process in the aftermath of the Friday referendum is neither an arguably fake petition to hold another referendum (it won’t happen), nor the so-called buyer’s remorse on the side of “Leave” voters, especially with ComRes confirming a negligible 1% of those voters were “Unhappy” with the outcome…

Britain Elects @britainelects

On the EU referendum result:
Happy: 48%
Unhappy: 43%
Indifferent: 7%
(via ComRes)

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Britain Elects @britainelects

Vote split // On the #EUref result (Remain / Leave):
Happy: 4% / 92%
Unhappy: 88% / 1%
Indifferent: 7% / 5%
(via ComRes)

5:40 PM – 25 Jun 2016

…but rather a surprising discovery in a UK government Command Paper laying out “The Process of withdrawing from the European Union“, which goes through the process of invoking the infamous Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, and notes that there may be a rather substantial hurdle to the actual Brexit process: a Scottish and/or Northern Irish veto to Britain’s separation from the EU. To wit:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The role of the devolved legislatures in implementing the withdrawal agreement:

We asked Sir David whether he thought the Scottish Parliament would have to give its consent to measures extinguishing the application of EU law in Scotland. He noted that such measures would entail amendment of section 29 of the Scotland Act 1998, which binds the Scottish Parliament to act in a manner compatible with EU law, and he therefore believed that the Scottish Parliament’s consent would be required. He could envisage certain political advantages being drawn from not giving consent.

We note that the European Communities Act is also entrenched in the devolution settlements of Wales and Northern Ireland. Though we have taken no evidence on this specific point, we have no reason to believe that the requirement for legislative consent for its repeal would not apply to all the devolved nations.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Not So Fast: Scotland And Northern Ireland May Have Brexit Veto Rights

June 25, 2016

Not So Fast: Scotland And Northern Ireland May Have Brexit Veto Rights

Two days after the shocking Brexit result, the nightmares for the Remain camp – which refuses to accept a democratic reality – will not go away. As a result, it has gotten to the farcical point where disgruntled Remain voters have launched a petition demanding a second EU referendum, having clearly forgotten that it was the dramatically low turnout among their ranks that allowed the Leave vote to have such a knockout victory. To be sure this is a well-known technocrat approach: keep voting and revoting until the desired outcome is finally achieved.

We doubt this particular approach has any hope of success. We also doubt that a call by Labor MP David Lammy, urging for a vote in Parliament to “stop this madness”, the madness in question being the will of the majority, which clearly is not appreciated by a member of a “democratically” elected institution. One can spend all day analyzing the amusing ironies in that statement.

View image on Twitter

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David Lammy ✔@DavidLammy

Wake up. We do not have to do this. We can stop this madness through a vote in Parliament. My statement below

11:36 AM – 25 Jun 2016

However, while these are merely desperation antics by a group who will do almost anything to hang on to the benefits presented to them by the status quo, regardless of the will of the majority, a curious observation has emerged courtesy of Jim Fitzpatrick, who points out that according to the 28-page government Command Paper laying out “The Process of withdrawing from the European Union“, which goes through the infamous Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the first time in history when Article 50 will be invoked, there may actually be a hurdle to the actual Brexit process, in the form of a Scottish and Northern Irish veto to Britain’s separation from the EU. To wit:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2016 Will Be A ‘Cataclysmic Year’ And ‘Investors Should Be Afraid’

January 13, 2016

2016 Will Be A ‘Cataclysmic Year’ And ‘Investors Should Be Afraid’

The Royal Bank of Scotland is telling clients that 2016 is going to be a “cataclysmic year” and that they should “sell everything”. This sounds like something that you might hear from The Economic Collapse Blog, but up until just recently you would have never expected to get this kind of message from one of the twenty largest banks on the entire planet. Unfortunately, this is just another indication that a major global financial crisis has begun and that we are now entering a bear market. The collective market value of companies listed on the S&P 500 has dropped by about a trillion dollars since the start of 2016, and panic is spreading like wildfire all over the globe. And of course when the Royal Bank of Scotland comes out and openly says that “investors should be afraid” that certainly is not going to help matters.

It amazes me that the Royal Bank of Scotland is essentially saying the exact same thing that I have been saying for months. Just like I have been telling my readers, RBS has observed that global markets “are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008″…

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach US$16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008.

So what should our response be to these warning signs?

According to RBS, the logical thing to do is to “sell everything” excerpt for high quality bonds…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Scottish Government’s Position on Fracking Remains Unclear

April 24, 2015

Scottish Government’s Position on Fracking Remains Unclear

The Scottish Government have been accused of kicking the issue of fracking into the long grass.

Alex Salmond said recently: “I think fracking has a long way to go before it convinces populations across the country. Fracking in a heavily populated area is a totally different proposition from fracking elsewhere and I think the Scottish government is pursuing a wise policy on it.”

The government has been told that the technology is necessary to secure the future of the country’s energy industry, but it seems it will not make the conclusions of its own research known until after the general election.

The SNP’s Manifesto

The Scottish National Party’s (SNP) manifesto released this week also fails to bring clarity to the SNP’s stance on fracking.

The manifesto, launched on Monday, had only one sentence dedicated to the topic of fracking. It said: “We will continue to support a moratorium on fracking.”

Elsewhere in the manifesto, however, the SNP show strong support for the oil and gas industry in underpinning the Scottish economy.

Nicola Sturgeon’s private meeting with INEOS Chairman Jim Ratcliffe, held on the same day as the announcement of the moratorium in January, further clouds the SNP’s overall position on fracking.

After this meeting, INEOS made a complete U-turn saying they now supported the moratorium, despite having been against it prior to the meeting.

However, it should be noted that the SNP‘s position on fracking is stronger than other main parties. The Lib Dems, Labour and Conservatives are all calling for a regulated industry

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil price crash threatens the future of the North Sea oilfields

January 15, 2015

Oil price crash threatens the future of the North Sea oilfields

Scottish government pledges to try to preserve offshore energy sector jobs, with prices having fallen 60% in the last six months

The potential impact of the oil price slump on Scotland was underlined as a leading energy expert warned on Wednesday that North Sea oilfields could be shut down if the oil price fell by just a few more dollars.

The rising sense of crisis about the plummeting price – which has fallen 60% in the last six months – prompted the Scottish government to promise an emergency taskforce to try to preserve jobs in the offshore energy sector.

Meanwhile, Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England warned that the Scottish economy was heading for a “negative shock”.

The oil industry consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that at the current price for Brent blend, of $46 a barrel, some UK production was already failing to break even, and further falls could endanger output.

Robert Plummer, a research analyst with the firm, said that at $50 a barrel oil production was costing more than its value in 17 countries, including the US and UK.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Scotland’s Wind Dream May Turn Into A Nightmare

January 13, 2015

Scotland’s Wind Dream May Turn Into A Nightmare

I last looked into the details and consequences of Scottish energy policy in the pre-referendum post Scotch on the ROCs. The expansion of Scottish renewables is progressing at breakneck speed and the purpose of this post is to update on where we are and where we are heading whether anyone likes it or not (Figure 1). Objections to wind power normally come from rural dwelling country folks whose lives are impacted by the construction of wind turbine power stations around them. My objections tend to be rooted more in the raison d’être for renewables (CO2 reduction), their cost, grid reliability and gross environmental impact. One issue I want to draw attention to is the vast electricity surplus that Scotland will produce on windy days in the years ahead. That surplus has to be paid for. Where will it go and how will it be used?

ElectricityGenerationScotland

Figure 1 The rapidly changing face of electricity generation in Scotland. Wind power seems destined to grow from virtually nothing in 2010 to 15.8 GW come 2020. Maximum power demand in Scotland is 6 GW (red line).

This post was prompted by a couple of emails in the wake of my recent post onWWF Masters of Spin that brought my attention to two short reports prepared by Professor (emeritus) Jack Ponton that describe how operational and consented wind farms will already take Scotland beyond its 2020 target. The small pdfs can be downloaded here and here and the two key charts are reproduced below.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Downing Street files reveal how Oliver Letwin kept poll tax plans alive | Politics | The Guardian

December 30, 2014

Downing Street files reveal how Oliver Letwin kept poll tax plans alive | Politics | The Guardian.

A young adviser to Margaret Thatcher who is now a minister for David Cameron explicitly suggested that Scotland be used as a testing ground for the introduction of the poll tax, the flagship policy that was eventually to topple her as prime minister.

Oliver Letwin, now a Cabinet Office minister, emerges in official papers publicly released on Tuesday as the man who single-handedly kept the idea of the poll tax alive in the mid 1980s despite attempts by two senior ministers to strangle it at birth.

Downing Street files for 1985 and 1986 released at the National Archivesshow that it was Letwin, then just 29 but already working in Thatcher’s policy unit, who argued that the poll tax – then known as the residence charge – could be introduced in two stages.

“If you are not willing to move to a pure residence charge in England and Wales immediately, you should not introduce a mixture of taxes but should rather use the Scots as a trail-blazer for the real thing,” Letwin told Thatcher in a memo written in November 1985. Letwin, whose parents knew Thatcher, had got his job on the recommendation of the cabinet minister Sir Keith Joseph.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Scottish Government Confirms Ebola Diagnosed In Glasgow Patient | Zero Hedge

December 29, 2014

Scottish Government Confirms Ebola Diagnosed In Glasgow Patient | Zero Hedge.

We wonder if England will be reconsidering the secession vote?

*SCOTTISH GOVT: CONFIRMED EBOLA CASE DIAGNOSED IN GLASGOW
*SCOTLAND: PATIENT IS A HEALTH CARE WORKER, RETURNED FROM SIERRA LEONE DEC. 28

After Japan’s stock market slid overnight following reports of Ebola in Tokyo, one wonders what a recurrence of Ebola headlines will do to risk complacency this time? Perhaps, since the Ebola Tzar’s work is done in America, they can lend him out to The Scots?

Bloomberg notes

*SCOTTISH GOVT: NHS SCOTLAND PROCEDURES PUT INTO EFFECT
*SCOTLAND: PATIENT IS A HEALTH CARE WORKER IN WEST AFRICA
*SCOTLAND:PATIENT RETURNED FROM SIERRA LEONE DEC. 28

As The BBC reports,

The Scottish government confirmed the case being investigated was at Glasgow’s Gartnavel Hospital.

This follows news from Japan overnight of a possible Ebola case…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Green light for world’s largest planned tidal energy project in Scotland | Environment | The Guardian

December 20, 2014

Green light for world’s largest planned tidal energy project in Scotland | Environment | The Guardian.

Construction of the largest planned tidal energy project in the world is expected to begin off the Scottish coast next month, developers have announced.

Atlantis, majority owner of the MeyGen project, said it had finalised all of the conditions required to initiate its first drawdown from financiers The Crown Estate and Scottish Enterprise.

The project has the potential to power nearly 175,000 homes through a network of 269 turbines on the seabed at Ness of Quoys in Caithness, north-east Scotland.

The company’s share price dipped on Friday but Atlantis said it “knows of no trading or operational reason to warrant this change”, particularly given the good progress it is making on MeyGen.

In an announcement to investors, Atlantis said: “The major construction and supply contractors to this iconic project have commenced design, engineering and procurement works in readiness for commencement of onshore construction at the project site in Caithness in January 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EITHER YOU’RE THE BUTCHER OR YOU’RE THE CATTLE « The Burning Platform

October 18, 2014

EITHER YOU’RE THE BUTCHER OR YOU’RE THE CATTLE « The Burning Platform.

I know many people have no interest in watching the boob tube because 99% of the programming is either mindless drivel or government sanctioned propaganda. It’s the 1% that reflects the deeper themes and moods engulfing our society. Television shows like Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and The Walking Dead reflect the darkening mood of this intensifying Fourth Turning. I wrote one of my more pessimistic articles called Welcome to Terminus in April regarding the season four finale of the Walking Dead series. I essentially argued we are approaching the end of the line and the world is going to get real nasty.

In the six short months since I wrote that depressing article, we’ve seen men beheaded on Youtube videos by terrorists no one had ever heard of at the beginning of this year. Somehow a ragtag band of 30,000 Muslim terrorists, using American military equipment supplied to fight Assad in Syria and taken from the Iraqi Army when they turned tail and ran away, have been able to defeat 600,000 Iraqi and Kurd fighters with air support from the vaunted U.S. Air Force. Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan descend into never ending religious based warfare. We’ve even had passenger planes mysteriously disappear in Asia with no trace.

…click on the above link for the rest of the article…

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