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Norway Oil and Gas: Reserves, Production and Future Projection

Norway Oil and Gas: Reserves, Production and Future Projection

Norwegian oil production peaked in 2000 to 2001; gas production may be peaking about now. Oil hit a low in 2013 and then recovered towards a new local peak, probably concurrent with the gas.

drilling and development

The most surprising thing I find with their industry is that the drop in oil price made almost no difference the drilling activity shown here (all data here and below taken from the NPD – Norwegian Petroleum Directorate – which provides more data than just about any other such organisation).

chart/

The chart shows numbers of wells drilled, as stacked bars, and number of operating rigs (unstacked) against the left hand axis, other curves are ratios of total against the right axis. There was a high level of drilling activity in 2013 and 2014 which then actually increased in 2015 and was still high in 2016, although exploration well numbers look to be decreasing now. This may be just a consequence of the momentum built up in the high price years, or because of the influence of Norwegian regulatory regime (which has always sought to smooth out development activity, though less so recently with new Conservative governments), or a move to new frontiers in the Norwegian and Barents Seas (the background area chart shows proportion of wells in each sea). The development wells marked N/A (information not available) are probably mostly oil judging by the fields being drilled, the non-production wells are mostly injection with a few for observation and disposal. The number of rigs and proportion of dry wells have remained pretty steady, as has the proportion of subsea wells.

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MEXICO Oil Reserves and Production

MEXICO Oil Reserves and Production

In dollar terms, since mid 2015 Mexico has been a net importer of hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, petroleum products and petrochemicals combined). To date it has been a relatively small and fairly constant amount, but with their oil production declining, and oil prices apparently continuing to fall while natural gas prices may be on the rise, the net cost could now start to increase.

chart/

2017 reserve numbers were issued in early June. These used to come from PEMEX, but now look like they come from the government through the National Hydrocarbon Commission (probably as a result of the initiative for oil industry deregulation). Overall all categories of reserves have been falling for some years. The chart below shows oil and total (i.e. including condensate, NGL and natural gas) for proved, probable and possible. The production, discoveries and revisions for total petroleum (no figures for crude alone) are also shown – a bit fiddly but the trends can be seen – falling production, small and declining discoveries and some big recent revisions.

Note that the usual confusion holds here in that reserves are for crude only (condensate is included in the total numbers), but total flow rates (discussed further below) have crude and condensate numbers included (but clearly specified). To add to the confusion the datasets below are labeled P1, P2 and P3, but because the charts are stacked they should be read on the axis as 1P, 2P and 3Ps (the bar chart increments don’t really work out very well like this because the revisions can be positive or negative).

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Mexico has four oil producing regions, Northeast Marine, which includes KMZ and Cantarell – the biggest fields, Southwest Marines, Northern Region onshore and Southern Region Onshore. The changes from 2016 to 2017 for these are shown below.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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