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Tag Archives: interest rates
The Great Unknown
The Great Unknown QUESTION: Martin, if Europe and Japan have destroyed their bond markets, would it be a good idea for them to get the government out of the bond market and have short term rates be floating in the free market? The free market would probably help since they don’t know how to move rates […]
Nomura: The Fed Will Go Large; Expect A 50bp Cut Out Of The Gate… And Soon
Nomura: The Fed Will Go Large; Expect A 50bp Cut Out Of The Gate… And Soon it may seem morbid, if not grotesque, to discuss the Fed cutting rates on the day when the S&P just hit a new all time high, but as a result of the previously discussed US bank liquidity and dollar shortage thesis, now also […]
Not Modern, Not About Money, and Not Really Much of a Theory
NOT MODERN, NOT ABOUT MONEY, AND NOT REALLY MUCH OF A THEORY “Ignoring MMT’s rising popularity would be about as smart (and effective) as a dog barking at the waves in the ocean.”–KEVIN MUIR, author of the avant garde financial newsletter, The Macro Tourist “I believe that all good things taken to an extreme become self-destructive […]
Weekly Commentary: Full Capitulation
Weekly Commentary: Full Capitulation April 16 – Bloomberg (Rich Miller and Craig Torres): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made an important shift in their strategy for dealing with inflation in a prelude to what could be a more radical change next year. The central bank has backed off the interest-rate hikes […]
Combustion
Combustion This is all going to end badly, even some ardent bulls will freely admit this, the question is the how, when and the where. Frankly it’s a tragedy that’s unfolding and discerning eyes can see it. Since the December lows markets have taken the scripted route higher salivating at the prospect of dovish central […]
Interest Rates, Funny Money, and Economic Malaise
Interest Rates, Funny Money, and Economic Malaise Since the 2007–8 financial crisis, more and more economists have entertained the idea that there might be some connection between artificially low interest rates and business cycles. By “artificially low” I mean interest rates that are pushed below their natural levels by expansionary monetary policy. The relationship between monetary policy […]
Being and Time (And Central Banks)
BEING AND TIME (AND CENTRAL BANKS) People value present goods more highly than future goods. For instance, an apple available today is considered more valuable than the same apple available in, say, one month. This is expressive of time preference — which is an undeniable fact, a category of human action. The sentence “Humans act” is a […]
Over $10 Trillion In Debt Now Has A Negative Yield
Over $10 Trillion In Debt Now Has A Negative Yield NIRP is back. On Friday, when Germany reported disastrous mfg and service PMI prints, the 10Y German Bund finally threw in the towel, with the yield sliding back under zero for the first time in three years. When that happened, and when the 3M-10Y yield […]
The Capitulation of Jerome Powell and the Fed
The Capitulation of Jerome Powell and the Fed This past week, on March 20, 2019, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell announced the US central bank would not raise interest rates in 2019. The Fed’s benchmark rate, called the Fed Funds rate, is thus frozen at 2.375% for the foreseeable future, i.e. leaving the central bank […]
A Major Bank Capitulates: “This May Be The Time For Helicopter Money Drops”
A Major Bank Capitulates: “This May Be The Time For Helicopter Money Drops” Long before the Fed was humiliated into reversing its hawkish rate hike policy in January and then again in March, we published – back in June 2015 – “The Blindingly Simple Reason Why The Fed Is About To Engage In Policy Error“, […]
Europe is so weak it can’t even handle 0% interest rates
Europe is so weak it can’t even handle 0% interest rates Europe’s leading economic policy makers have officially thrown in the towel. Last week, the European Central Bank admitted economic conditions are so dire that it already has to reverse its monetary policy. I’ll get back to that in a minute… Following the Great Financial Crisis in […]
Central Banks Cave, Usher In The Crack-Up Boom
Central Banks Cave, Usher In The Crack-Up Boom This was going to be the year when the other big central banks joined the Fed in “normalizing” interest rates and reversing the past decade’s QE experiment. Instead, the other central banks blinked and went back to aggressive ease, and the Fed is following them. This is a […]
A Modest Proposal for the Fed
A Modest Proposal for the Fed Quantitative easing, the program of asset buying initiated by the US Federal Reserve Bank in 2008, represents the most profound monetary experiment in the history of the world. Between fall of 2008 and fall of 2014, three successive rounds of QE quadrupled the monetary base of the world’s most-used and dominant currency, from less […]
The Super Wealthy Are Already Preparing For NIRP and Worse
The Super Wealthy Are Already Preparing For NIRP and Worse The Global Elite are preparing for Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and Wealth Grabs. How do I know? They’re moving their money into physical cash. Physical cash represents one of the rare loopholes in our current financial system. When money is in actual physical cash […]
Remember, The Fed Hasn’t Actually Done Anything Yet
Remember, The Fed Hasn’t Actually Done Anything Yet When the financial markets got, um, choppy towards the end of 2018, the Fed caved almost instantly. But only rhetorically. Fed chair Powell promised to stop raising interest rates and shrinking the money supply, and the financial markets, trained to salivate at the sound of Fed happy […]
