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The other side of the global crisis: entropy and the collapse of civilizations

The other side of the global crisis: entropy and the collapse of civilizations When we discuss the impending crisis of our civilisation, we mainly look at the resources our economy need in a growing quantity. And we explain why the Diminishing Returns of resource exploitation pose a growing burden on the possibility of a further […]

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The “Limits to Growth” was right: Italy’s population starts declining.

The “Limits to Growth” was right: Italy’s population starts declining. The “base case” scenario described in the 2004 edition of “The Limits to Growth”, an update of the original study sponsored by the Club of Rome and published in 1972. Note how the world’s population is supposed to start declining some years after the peaking […]

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MEDEAS begins

February 25, 2016

MEDEAS begins The European project “MEDEAS” is starting. The acronym has little to do with the mythological figure of Medea but stands for “Modeling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraints” and it is an ambitious attempt at creating a new model that will define the future of the energy system in Europe, taking into account […]

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The Empire of Lies

February 9, 2016

The Empire of Lies The Trajan Column was built in order to celebrate the victories of the Roman Armies in the conquest of Dacia, during the 2nd century AD. It shows that the Romans knew and used propaganda, although in forms that for us look primitive. In those times, just as in ours, a dying […]

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A new blog dedicated to the Seneca Effect

February 1, 2016

A new blog dedicated to the Seneca Effect The Seneca Trap is a repository of the posts dedicated to the “Seneca Effect” that appeared, and will appear, on “Cassandra’s Legacy The idea of collapse is bad enough for most people when it deals with the running out of mineral resources along the symmetrical “bell shaped” […]

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Climate change and the alien gods of the Bible: an epiphany of epistemology.

January 28, 2016

Climate change and the alien gods of the Bible: an epiphany of epistemology. Fish-god and assorted alienities from an ancient Sumerian cylinder seal (image from wikipedia). Nothing real but, oh, so fascinating! As I was waiting for my train at the Milano station, last week, I toured a bookstore and I was attracted to a book […]

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Partisan hostility in society and the consequences on climate change policy

January 19, 2016

Partisan hostility in society and the consequences on climate change policy A curious vehicle carrying a mock-up of the Soviet Sputnik satellite. It was used for political propaganda in the 1950s by the Italian Communist Party (PCI). Up to the 1980s and even later, Italy was a deeply divided country where two opposed and incompatible […]

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Climate Change and the Horse Manure Catastrophe

January 11, 2016

Climate Change and the Horse Manure Catastrophe One of the reasons of the success of the motor car in replacing horses was that cars didn’t leave solid waste behind. It would take almost a century to understand that the exhaust of motor vehicles is way more toxic and polluting than anything that the rear of […]

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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

January 4, 2016

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? It is unbelievable how many times I’ve heard people telling me “the US has become self-sufficient in oil production,” a group that includes some respectable members of the EU parliament. This is probably due to the confusion that the media have made on the fact that the US production has […]

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2015: the Year that Changed Everything?

January 1, 2016

2015: the Year that Changed Everything? Recent wildfires in California, photo from the Independent There has been no lack of disasters taking place in 2015. Some can be classified as “natural” others as human caused. In all cases, anyway, they are an indication of the stress felt by the ecosystem and by the economic system […]

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Ultrasociality: The Key to Human History?

December 21, 2015

Ultrasociality: The Key to Human History? Peter Turchin’s book deserves to be devoured in a few hours, and that’s what I did. But, I emerged out of it with a sensation of disappointment (*). Possibly it was unavoidable: all the books that attempt to explain everything are destined to fall short in one way or […]

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A climate rant: an idiot is an idiot is an idiot

December 16, 2015

A climate rant: an idiot is an idiot is an idiot It was yesterday that I gave a talk on climate at a meeting in Florence. It was a rather formal meeting, in the “Aula Magna” of the University of Florence, and my talk was part of a multidisciplinary series of lectures. I gave my […]

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Some long term climate scenarios

December 15, 2015

Some long term climate scenarios Scenarios are not predictions, just ways of describing possible futures; useful in order to be prepared for unexpected events. The only rule in scenario building is that the assumptions should not be too improbable; such as involving time machines. And, yet, it seems that in some cases involving climate projections, time […]

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The fall of the Mediterranean society during the bronze age: why we still don’t understand civilization collapse

December 9, 2015

The fall of the Mediterranean society during the bronze age: why we still don’t understand civilization collapse Eric Cline wrote an excellent book on the end of the Bronze Age in the Mediterranean region but, unfortunately, it doesn’t arrive to a definite conclusion about the reasons of the collapse. Cline suggests that “several stressors” […]

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Avoiding the climate catastrophe: not so easy as many people think

November 27, 2015

Avoiding the climate catastrophe: not so easy as many people think Last month, Kevin Anderson published a very interesting article on “Nature Geosciences” (12 Oct 2015). The article may be behind a paywall, but most of it is reported in Anderson’s blog. Let me summarize it for you because it goes to the heart of the problem: […]

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