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Imaginary Wage-Inflation Conundrum
Imaginary Wage-Inflation Conundrum Economists are puzzled over the wage growth conundrum. Wages were supposed to rise significantly. They didn’t. Why? Let’s start with a look at the conundrum expressed in a Tweet. Lisa Abramowicz ✔@lisaabramowicz1 This is a confusing jobs report. US employers added the most workers since mid-2016, but hourly wages didn’t increase as […]
Housing Liquidity Crisis Coming: Debt Deflation Follows
Housing Liquidity Crisis Coming: Debt Deflation Follows A liquidity crisis in housing is on the way. Non-banks are at the center of the storm. The Brookings Institute says a Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market is on the way. This is in guest post format. What follows are key snips from a 68-page Brookings PDF. […]
Housing Collapse Coming Right Up
Housing Collapse Coming Right Up Mortgage rates are high and rising. Refinancing opportunities are nonexistent; home affordability has collapsed. The latest Black Knight Mortgage Monitor is worth a very close look. Here’s what the report says about the feature chart. Recent rate jumps coupled with climbing home prices have increased the cost to purchase the […]
Collapse of NZ “Guarantor” Puts $300M Deposits for 10K Homes at Risk
Collapse of NZ “Guarantor” Puts $300M Deposits for 10K Homes at Risk Guaranteeing things is an excellent business until it fails suddenly and completely. In the Great Financial Crisis guarantors were wiped out. It’s happening now down under where 10,000 Property Buyers are Caught in the Collapse of Deposit Power. A leading national property finance […]
Housing Collapse Coming Right Up
Housing Collapse Coming Right Up Mortgage rates are high and rising. Refinancing opportunities are nonexistent; home affordability has collapsed. The latest Black Knight Mortgage Monitor is worth a very close look. Here’s what the report says about the feature chart. Recent rate jumps coupled with climbing home prices have increased the cost to purchase the […]
Sucker Traps and the Arithmetic of Risk
Sucker Traps and the Arithmetic of Risk John Hussman has another excellent article out this week but it will be ignored. Mathematically, it must be ignored. In the Arithmetic of Risk, Hussman posted the above chart. I added the anecdotes regarding where we are. Here are some pertinent snips. At present, I view the market […]
Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror
Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror 43 percent of credit card holders carry a balance. Delinquencies are rising. It’s a deflationary debt trap. Revolving Credit Hits New Record High In December, revolving debt has topped the previous high-water mark of $1.021 trillion set in April of 2008. Debt as of December 2017 (the latest available) […]
Chart Predicts Every Market Crash in History
Chart Predicts Every Market Crash in History The Fed blows bubbles. Then it eventually pops them. Where are we in the cycle? Bill Bonner writes This Has Predicted Every Market Crash in History. I recreated the chart in Fred and added trendlines. But let’s tune in to Bill Bonner. “Buy the dip” has worked for […]
Forget the Yuan: King Dollar is Here to Stay
Forget the Yuan: King Dollar is Here to Stay Many believe deficit spending will kill the US dollar as a reserve currency and the yuan will take over. They are wrong. Economist Daniel Lacalle asks Can China Really Kill The US Dollar Supremacy? >Why China Will Fail to Dethrone the US Dollar First, because it […]
Inflation Coming? How About Deflation?
Inflation Coming? How About Deflation? Economists expect higher inflation based on rising producer prices. But will producer prices feed consumer prices? When? Do producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices? If so, what’s the lead or lag time? The Wall Street Journal article Why the Inflation Picture Looks Starkly Different for Businesses and Consumers got […]
It Was Not Effective, But We’ll Do It Again
It Was Not Effective, But We’ll Do It Again Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has some interesting comments about QE today. The Bond Buyer reports Rosengren Expects Fed to Again Resort to Asset Purchases. Although large scale asset purchase programs may not be as effective as previously believed, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric […]
Don’t Worry, It’s Only a “Pre-Bubble”
Don’t Worry, It’s Only a “Pre-Bubble” Ray Dalio, who embarrassed himself saying “You’re Going to Feel Pretty Stupid Holding Cash” offers more silliness. Ray Galio, the head of the world’s largest hedge fund says U.S. in a ‘Pre-Bubble Phase’ with a 70% Chance of Recession. “I think we are in a pre-bubble stage that could […]
Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia
Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia Consumers unexpectedly threw in the towel in 5 countries but the central banks and the IMF insist everything is fine. On February 14, I noted US Retail Sales Dive, Negative Revisions Too. This will impact both 4th quarter and first quarter GDP estimates. On […]
Laughable FOMC Statements on Phillips Curve, Inflation Expectations
Laughable FOMC Statements on Phillips Curve, Inflation Expectations The Jan 30-31 FOMC minutes were published today. In addition to the usual drivel came laughable Phillips Curve nonsense. The Fed released its January 30-31 FOMC Meeting Minutes today. The minutes were a combination of the usual drivel about the economy plus some downright laughable comments on […]
Russia Meddling “Act of War”, Michael Moore Trapped, CIA Admissions
Russia Meddling “Act of War”, Michael Moore Trapped, CIA Admissions Idiotic comments regarding “Russia’s act of war” against the US for meddling in the Us election has reached consensus. The Intercept reports A Consensus Emerges: Russia Committed an “Act of War” on Par With Pearl Harbor and 9/11. Should the U.S. Response Be Similar? IN […]
