U.S. Shale’s Most Productive Play May Peak By 2021
The world’s top shale play, the Permian, has shown remarkable resilience amid the lower-for-longer oil prices. Permian production has grown and should continue its rise into the foreseeable future.
Technological advances spurred the rapid rise of the Permian, but as drillers are set to continuously develop the hottest U.S. shale play, they may soon start to test the region’s geological limits.
If E&P companies can’t overcome the geological constraints with tech breakthroughs, Permian production could peak in 2021, putting more than 1.5 million bpd of future production in question, and potentially significantly influencing oil prices, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in an analysis this week.
According to EIA’s September Drilling Productivity Report, the Permian will pump 2.580 million bpd of oil this month. Crude oil output is set to rise by another 55,000-bpd next month, to 2.635 million bpd. The Permian, as usual, contributes the most to the expected production growth out of the top U.S. shale plays.
Wood Mackenzie’s report, “Geology vs. technology: how sustainable is Permian tight oil growth?”, modeled three scenarios for the Permian’s production. Under the reference-case scenario, Permian production is set to rise to more than 5 million bpd in 2025. Peak production could increase by 500,000 bpd over WoodMac’s base case in a modeling scenario where new technology adoption accelerates more aggressively, the consultancy said. However, “downside risks related to tighter well spacing and well-on-well interference could bring peak Permian production forward by 4 years compared to the upside case—putting more than 1.5 million b/d of future production in question,” Wood Mackenzie reports.
The analysis points out that many other shale plays prove that the initial years of development are typically the easiest. In order to keep well performance on par with the initial flows, drillers need more tech breakthroughs “to keep their barrels at the bottom of the cost curve.”
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