EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids dropping 620,000 bpd in September, up 280,000 bpd in November but bottoming out in January, February and March, then climbing until October of 2016.
The EIA expects Non-OPEC average total liquids to increase by 140,000 bpd in 2016. The chart above shows the change they expect each country to make. Canada, by far, has the largest increase in production, up by 340,000 barrels per day. Without Canada’s input the EIA says, Non-OPEC total liquids production would be down by 200,000 bpd.
Here are the changes in Non-OPEC production the EIA expects each country to make 2015 to 2016 in thousand barrels per day. Countries not listed had zero expected change from 2015 to 2016.
The EIA says US total liquids production dropped 180,000 bpd in September.
Canada, the EIA says, was down 240,000 bpd in September and up again 270,000 bpd in October and then continue to climb at a steady pace through the end of 2016. The upward trend the EIA expects in Canadian production seems to match the same upward trend that Canada has experienced since 2011. It seems that the EIA expects the drop in the price of crude oil to have almost no effect whatsoever on Canadian total liquids production.
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