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The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts extreme cold weather “across the heart of the country this weekend and is expected to continue into next week.” We previewed this cold blast in a note titled “Gobsmackingly Bananas”: Weather Models Predict Polar Vortex Invasion Into US.

Whenever cold air spills south from Canada into the Heartland, attention usually shifts to Texas.

Next, power demand forecasts from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the power grid operator for Texas, are analyzed to see if demand forecasts exceed supply. Current forecasts show ERCOT faces the first major test of grid stability for the new year.

And this:

ERCOT has warned its 26 million Texas customers about the upcoming cold blast this weekend into next week. The grid operator assures customers, “Grid conditions are expected to be normal, and ERCOT expects to have sufficient supply to meet demand.”

Energy-focused research firm Criterion Research told clients in a note Wednesday that ERCOT will likely survive the big cold shot:

ERCOT has issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for the upcoming cold weather event forecast from January 15-17, 2024. The OCN is the first of four levels of communication provided by the agency ahead of a possible Emergency Condition – the following three levels would be Energy Emergency Levels 1 through 3.

ERCOT’s current forecast run shows extreme demand conditions starting on Tuesday, January 16, 2024. That includes a projected peak load of 85,587 MW at 7 AM that morning. However, renewable generation from wind and solar are expected to help out as demand pushes to a seasonal record, with early morning wind + solar contribution 14,137 MW.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Watchdog Has Grim Winter Warning: There May Be Blackouts

November 14, 2023

Watchdog Has Grim Winter Warning: There May Be Blackouts

North American Reliability Corp: As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather.
Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.
The regulator points to the lack of gas transport infrastructure as one of the main challenges for the U.S. grid this winter.

As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather this and next year, the North American Reliability Corp has warned.

These warnings have become something of a routine for the regulatory agency lately. Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.

This latest warning also has to do with extreme temperatures. Yet it’s not just the temperatures themselves that are the problem. It’s the power generation mix that is making the grid more vulnerable.

In its latest assessment, NERC cited recent data showing that up to a fifth of generating capacity could be forced offline in case of a cold snap over areas that do not normally get this kind of weather.

The regulator points to the lack of gas transport infrastructure as one of the main challenges for the U.S. grid this winter as it compromises the security of generating fuel supply. The report also notes historical evidence that extreme winter weather can also affect the production of natural gas and, as a result, reinforce the effect of weather on power supply security.

It is not just natural gas that is problematic, however. The massive buildout of wind and solar capacity has also had an impact on electricity supply reliability and could turn into a problem during the winter.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

European Natural Gas Prices Surge Ahead Of Cold Spell

February 1, 2023

European Natural Gas Prices Surge Ahead Of Cold Spell

The Dutch TTF benchmark price jumped by 11% on Tuesday morning, recovering from a 17% price slump last week.
An unplanned outage at a Norwegian gas processing plan and short covering combined to add upward pressure to gas prices.
Next week, temperatures could be lower than initially expected, which would boost demand for natural gas after a mild winter so far.

Europe’s benchmark gas prices have rebounded this week as traders closed short positions at the expiry of the front-month contract and some weather forecasts suggested colder weather in northern and central Europe next week than previously expected.

The Dutch TTF benchmark price jumped by 11% at over $65 (60 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) at the opening of trade in Amsterdam on Tuesday, extending small gains from Monday and recovering some of the losses from last week, when prices slumped by 17%.

On Monday, the prices were supported by short covering and an unplanned outage at a Norwegian gas processing plant. However, wind power generation is still expected to be strong, which could curb some demand for gas-fired power generation.

But next week, temperatures could be lower than initially expected, which would boost demand for household heating. Colder spells are set to return to northern and central Europe next week, according to weather models by Maxar Technologies Inc, cited by Bloomberg.

Still, the record gas prices in Europe could be behind us, according to ING’s revised outlook on natural gas for this year.

“Mild weather and weak industrial demand have ensured that gas storage has remained strong. The region should get through this winter comfortably and prospects also look better for the 23/24 winter,” Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said on Monday.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

French And German Power Prices Soar As Cold Sweeps Europe

January 17, 2023

French And German Power Prices Soar As Cold Sweeps Europe

After a mild start to the year, cold weather sweeping across western Germany, France, and the UK led to a surge in electricity prices on Tuesday.

French day-ahead power prices jumped to 135 euros a megawatt-hour, a 42% increase versus the rolling two-week average. The cause of the price spike is a surge in heating demand and delays in restarting nuclear plants.

Day-ahead prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, increased as much as 16% Tuesday.

“Cold is expected to grip areas from the mid-continent to west, including in western Germany, France and the UK where average departures from normal range anywhere between 2-6 degrees Celsius below normal,” Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies, told Bloomberg.

Dross said the cold spell “will increase heating demand for those regions to above normal levels.”

Despite colder weather and increasing heating demand, Dutch front-month natural gas futures, Europe’s benchmark, slid as much as 7.3% after rising 4.6%. Prices have clawed back some losses after tagging 16-month lows.

Mild temperatures are expected to return next week, denting demand once more. Morgan Stanley recently wrote that Europe’s NatGas consumption in the year to October could be as low as 16% below the five-year average.

“Even if it makes gas-fired power plants increasingly competitive with coal-fired power plants, it does not lead to an increase in gas demand for power generation because” other cheaper power generation sources will be used first, Engie SA’s EnergyScan wrote in a note.

* * *

Record warmth spread across Europe in the first half of January. Temperatures in the energy-stricken continent felt more like spring as several metropolitan areas recorded the warmest temperatures on record. Now a pattern shift is underway as parts of northwest Europe brace for a cold snap starting Monday.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Colder Weather Might Return To Northwest Europe Next Week

January 12, 2023

Colder Weather Might Return To Northwest Europe Next Week

European natural gas prices have plunged to pre-Ukraine invasion levels on mild winter. Heating demand across the EU has declined, allowing fuel storage tanks to continue injections and remain above seasonal levels. This bodes well for the energy-stricken continent, but new weather forecasts suggest a late-month return to winter.

The benchmark Dutch TTF futures contract for February was down to 65.80 euros a megawatt-hour or more than 6% on the session. On the eve of Russia’s invasion last February, the contract sold for about 88 euros.

Several factors have allowed the EU to skirt around an energy crisis, including alternatives to Russian NatGas, such as increased imports of US LNG, widespread conservation efforts for residential and business customers, and a very mild winter.

NatGas stockpiles across the continent are well above a 12-year mean for this time of the year. The percentage of NatGas full has yet to fall from around 83% since Christmas.

Meanwhile, new weather models are pointing to a possible flip back to colder temperatures next week for parts of Europe. Natgas traders will be focused on the severity of the cold and the impacts on heating demand.

The return of wintry conditions follows a record-warm start to the year, which provided relief from an energy crunch that has hammered Europe for months. The mild weather curbed demand for heating, allowing some countries to top up natural gas stockpiles at a time when they’d usually be tapping supplies.

Most of Britain will see below-average temperatures by the end of next week, with snow possible in northern areas, according to the country’s Met Office. –Bloomberg

A few models show the possible cold snap for parts of the EU next week.

Colder temperatures could be arriving in North West EU in days.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

US NatGas Futures Jump As Frigid Weather Set To Swoop Across Country

November 7, 2022

US NatGas Futures Jump As Frigid Weather Set To Swoop Across Country

US natural gas futures bottomed on Oct. 24 after a 50% haircut on warmer weather. In the last two weeks, prices have staged a rally on the prospect of cold weather and tighter supplies. Last Monday, we penned a note titled “US NatGas Spikes As Temperatures Are About To Dive Nationwide.” Now, with colder weather sweeping across the US, NatGas prices are up a staggering 49% in eleven sessions.

On Monday morning alone, NatGas futures are up 10%. Bloomberg said the move higher is weather-related, “as a winter storm hits the Pacific Northwest and frigid weather is expected across most of the country.”

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a 6-10 day temperature outlook for the lower 48 states showing that most of the country will experience below-average temperatures.

An 8-14 day temperature outlook by the weather agency also points to continued below-average temperatures for much of the US.

After an unseasonably warm end of October and the first week of November, the warm spell is forecasted to turn today. Average temperatures are expected around 58 degrees Fahrenheit and will revert to a downward sloping 30-year mean of the mid-40s by mid-month.

Colder weather indicates heating demand will rise, and so will the demand for NatGas.

The latest rally in NatGas outlines how sensitive traders are to potential cold snaps, as below-normal stockpiles and surging exports could strain domestic stockpiles in a deep freeze in the months ahead.

Arctic Blast To Blanket Eastern Half Of US Next Week

October 16, 2022

Arctic Blast To Blanket Eastern Half Of US Next Week

A cold blast will descend on the eastern US early next week, forcing tens of millions of Americans to turn on their heaters or fire up their stoves as the cold season comes early.

“It will feel more like November for many next week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Unseasonably cold weather begins Monday and could last through the week and extend down to the Gulf of Mexico. There’s also a risk of snow across the Great Lakes, Midwest, and New England.

AccuWeather’s models expect temperatures to dive 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below average for the first half of next week for the entire eastern half of the country.

“Daytime temperatures will be stuck in the 30s and 40s F across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday. Highs are forecast to generally be in the 40s across the interior Northeast on Tuesday, with 50s from Washington, DC, to Boston,” AccuWeather said.

The cold blast would indicate surging demand for power as tens of millions of Americans crank up their thermostats to stay warm. Heating demand will rise next week and may put a bid under natural gas prices.

Some good news is US NatGas prices have declined for eight consecutive weeks, with prices down more than 30% from a 14-year high in August.

But the downturn could be short-lived because US NatGas stockpiles are still below average for this time of year.

“Globally, we’re feeling better about ourselves and about the natural gas storage levels that we have now,” Gary Cunningham, director of market research at risk management firm Tradition Energy, told Bloomberg last week.

Cunningham said traders have so far priced in mild temperatures in NatGas markets for the Northern Hemisphere, which helps curb demand but warned, “All of that can change very quickly and dramatically if we have a cold start to winter.”

5 Ways To Keep Home Warm During Winter Weather

February 3, 2022

5 Ways To Keep Home Warm During Winter Weather

If you live in an area where temperatures dip quickly and often during the winter months, you know how hard it can be to keep your home warm; especially when the outside temperatures drop below zero!

If you live in an area where temperatures dip quickly and often during the winter months, you know how hard it can be to keep your home warm; especially when the outside temperatures drop below zero!

We actually live in an area that gets to -20 during the winter months. Luckily, we have yet to experience that this year, however, we have gotten several degrees below zero. Sometimes, your wood-burning stove and electric or propane heaters have a tough time keeping up and your bill to use those goes sky high! So here are some tips to stay warm when it gets unbearable cold.

Heavy Curtains

Heavy curtains will block a lot of the cool air and keep it from hitting you. When it gets cold, even with high-quality windows, you can feel the cold coming off the glass just walking by. Using heavy curtains helps keep this chill from taking over your whole house. Usually, this is something I would do during the night to help it feel warmer. But if you have a really cold day, keep those curtains closed until the sunlight hits the windows.

While some air particles will be able to move through the gaps in a curtain, many of them will encounter resistance – just like wind blowing against a ship’s sail. Even if the air immediately beside the window cools considerably if it doesn’t have the opportunity to mix with the warm air in the rest of the room, you won’t notice – and neither will your energy bills.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are You Ready For A Catastrophically Cold Winter? Here Is What The Mainstream Media Won’t Tell You…

November 11, 2019

Are You Ready For A Catastrophically Cold Winter? Here Is What The Mainstream Media Won’t Tell You…

Experts are warning us that this will be a “freezing, frigid, and frosty” winter, and even though the official beginning of winter is still over a month away, it already feels like that in much of the country right now. Over the next several days, it will literally feel like it is mid-January in much of the central and eastern portions of the United States. Many areas will be hit by temperatures that are 30 degrees below normal, and heavy snow is expected in some areas of the Midwest. Unfortunately, this bitterly cold weather is coming at a very bad time for corn farmers. According to the latest USDA crop progress report, only 52 percent of the corn in the middle of the country has been harvested. So about half of the corn is still sitting out there, and these extraordinarily low temperatures could potentially be absolutely devastating. In essence, this cold front threatens to put an exclamation point on an absolutely horrific year for U.S. farmers. According to the National Weather Service, we could possibly see “170 potential daily record cold high temperatures” over the next three days…

“The National Weather Service is forecasting 170 potential daily record cold high temperatures Monday to Wednesday,” tweeted Weather Channel meteorologist Jonathan Erdman. “A little taste of January in November.”
The temperature nosedive will be a three-day process as a cold front charges across the central and eastern U.S. from Sunday into Tuesday.

We are being told that low temperatures in certain portions of Texas could plunge into the teens, and all across the Upper Midwest we could see low temperatures that are well below zero.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Be Energy Efficient This Winter. This is the Best Wood To Heat Your Home

October 31, 2019

Be Energy Efficient This Winter. This is the Best Wood To Heat Your Home

Those who choose to heat their home with wood are becoming fewer and fewer. However, with more interested in a self-sustaining lifestyle and going off the grid, those numbers may begin to rise again. If you decided to heat your home with wood, there are simply some types of wood that are better to burn in your home.

There is nothing quite like a roaring fire to stand next to while listening to the crackles and pops on a subzero winter day while there’s a raging snowstorm blowing through. If you live in an area where those days are common in the winter, you probably know the benefits of having a wood burning stove firsthand. The heat is immediate and fills the space quickly as opposed to waiting for propane or electric heat to keep up. It’s also oddly comforting.

When talking about burning wood inside for heat, it is important to first talk about the quality of your wood burning stove. Using wood as the main heat source in your home is not for everyone. It’s actually lifestyle choice. Many summer days will be spent cutting and splitting wood to be used during the winter months and if you choose to buy firewood, the cost may not outweigh the benefits.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Frost-Apocalypse Set To Sweep Across US, Could Mark End Of Growing Season

October 7, 2019

Frost-Apocalypse Set To Sweep Across US, Could Mark End Of Growing Season

We are tracking frost and freeze potential US temperature weather maps this weekend that indicate a strong possibility frost-apocalypse is headed for the Pacific, Rocky Mountains, and Midwest regions over the next ten days. This could mean the end of the growing season for many agriculture producing states.

As shown in the EC Operational maps below, a 32°F contour line in the 5-10 day forecast indicates US frost risks could shift from the Northwest too much of the North Central states, which would officially mark the end of the growing season in those areas if confirmed by mid-month.

* * *

Andrei Evbuoma, a meteorologist for NOAA National Weather Service, provides further insight into the frost situation in the US, and what he thinks this could mean for grain prices.

Frost and freeze watches/warnings hoisted for portions of the north-central and Northeast U.S.; weather outlook turns colder across the northern and central U.S. raising risks for frost/freeze and thus upside potential of prices.

On the weather front, frost and freeze watches/warnings are in effect for much of North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, western Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, a large portion of Upstate New York and Vermont, extreme western Massachusetts, and extreme northern Pennsylvania. The frost and freeze warnings are in effect tonight through Friday morning. The freeze watch is in effect for late Friday night through early Saturday morning. The freeze and frost warnings over North Dakota and Minnesota cover a good portion of spring wheat. However, with much of the crop harvested, the impacts should be minimum. The northwestern portions of the corn and soybean belt will be impacted by the frost and freeze Thursday night/Friday morning.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

25 Cozy Ways to Prep Your Home for Winter

October 4, 2019

25 Cozy Ways to Prep Your Home for Winter

As they say on Game of Thrones, “Brace yourselves. Winter is coming.”

One of the best ways to brace yourselves for the onset of cold weather, winter storms, and potential power outages is to prep your home for the season. And this is one of the nicest parts of prepping – quite a few of the cozy touches that you add to be more prepared are also delightful and decorative.

When summer begins to fade into fall, it’s the best time to begin preparing for the advent of winter weather. None of these tasks are particularly difficult, but they can be a little time-consuming. Waiting until the last minute usually means that you’ll end up fighting the crowds who have also rushed to the store or that you’ll be going without something that could have made your power outage a lot more comfortable.

25 Ways to Get Cozy

Here are a few ideas that will make you snug and safe during the cold months that lie ahead.

Check your windows and doors. Make sure that they are in good condition and fit well. Drafts will not only make you uncomfortable but will let heat escape from the house. Now is the time to replace them if necessary.
Reduce the draftiness of your windows. If you can’t afford to replace your windows (or if you are a renter) you can still do several things to reduce the drafts from older windows. Caulk gaps between frames and brickwork and replace any damaged panes. If you live in an older home with single pane windows, apply window insulation film to help make them more weather tight. Finally, purchase or make fabric draft stoppers to place at the bottoms of your windows.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2019 is Breaking All Records for Cold – The Real Threat is a Global Freeze

March 3, 2019

2019 is Breaking All Records for Cold – The Real Threat is a Global Freeze

QUESTION: Global cooling….you talk a lot about global cooling in the colder winter this year. But what effect does it have on the future summer temperatures and growing of crops?

ANSWER: This type of climate change has the potential to be very profound. 2019 is already setting new records for cold and snowfall. In the center of the USA, the snowfall has risen to more than double that of 2000. There are many influences it has produced historically and the summer crop seasons grow shorter and dryer. Historically, this results in starvation in some areas but primarily malnutrition. That sets the stage for the rise of disease and plagues.

The Black Death was preceded by the Wolf Global Cooling where temperatures dropped by nearly 20% from the Medieval Warming period. As temperatures decline, the crop cycle shortens. In fact, so many people died during the 1300s that this brought an end to feudalism because there was a shortage of labor.

The Little Ice Age followed the Wolf Global Cooling. We can see that the price of wheat began to break out in 1545. Keep in mind that our model was created by pulling in everything we could get our hands on and correlating the entire world. When our model is showing Global Cooling and a pending bull market in the price of food, it is something rather important enough to put on the agenda. During the 1700s, even Thomas Jefferson and John Adams commented on how the ground froze to a depth of 2 feet. Nothing will grow under such conditions.

Climate Collapse: Wind Chill Temperatures Will Hit -60 In The Midwest This Week As Global Weather Patterns Shift

January 31, 2019

Climate Collapse: Wind Chill Temperatures Will Hit -60 In The Midwest This Week As Global Weather Patterns Shift

The experts are telling us that the Midwest could experience the coldest weather that it has ever seen this week. Wind chill temperatures of -40 and -50 degrees will be common throughout the region, and it is being projected that some spots will actually get hit by wind chill temperatures of up to -60 degrees. A shift in the polar vortex is being blamed for this life-threatening weather, and we are being told to expect the coldest temperatures to arrive on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. But all-time records are already being set. For example, according to Accuweather the temperature in the city of International Falls, Minnesota hit 45 below zero on Monday morning…

The coldest weather in years will put millions of people and animals throughout the midwestern United States at risk for hypothermia and frostbite to occur in minutes during the final days of January.
The deep freeze continued across the Upper Midwest on Sunday with temperatures plummeting well below zero in the morning. The low of 45 below zero F in International Falls, Minnesota, shattered the day’s record of 36 below zero F from 1966.

Please keep in mind that was not a wind chill temperature.

That was the actual temperature outside.

As the week progresses, bitterly cold temperatures will be accompanied by heavy snow and strong winds across the Midwest. The polar jet stream has weakened, and as a result the polar vortex will “dip into parts of North America”…

The wintry onslaught will be driven by the Northern Hemisphere’s polar vortex, the pocket of cold air sitting atop the North Pole. When temperatures rise in the Arctic, the polar jet stream — the torrent of westerly winds that hold the polar vortex in place — can weaken and dip into parts of North America.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deep Freeze: Dangerously Cold Record Low Temps To Hit Chicago, Midwest

January 28, 2019

Deep Freeze: Dangerously Cold Record Low Temps To Hit Chicago, Midwest

It could be warmer above the Arctic Circle than in Chicago by Wednesday, with Bloomberg reporting that temperatures are forecast to fall in the Windy City to 20-to-25 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (minus-29 to minus-32 Celsius).

“That is pretty amazing,” said Brian Hurley, a senior branch forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

Amazing indeed, as Mike Shedlock notes, Chicago could see its lowest daily ‘high’ temp ever as polar air causes dangerous travel conditions and freezes pipes.

Stay warm, a Deep Freeze Grips Midwest With Record-Breaking Low Temperatures.

Surges of cold polar air are blasting the Midwest with the lowest temperatures in years, set to last until the end of the week. Temperatures in Chicago could drop to minus 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 29 Celsius) for the first time since the mid-1990s.
“I cannot stress how dangerously cold it will be,” said Mike Doll, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather. “An entire generation has gone by without experiencing this type of cold in the Chicago area.”
The National Weather Service said a “potentially record-breaking push” of Arctic air will bring wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees to the Northern Plains and Great Lakes areas by Wednesday. That’s the day Chicago is forecast to see its lowest daily high temperature ever — minus 12, beating the record of minus 11 set in 1994.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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