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Oil Price And Its Effect On Production

Oil Price And Its Effect On Production

Also, JODI, for some reason, does not count all of Canada’s oil sands production. So for Canada I use Canada’s National Energy Board numbers instead.

The JODI C+C numbers, for Non-OPEC, will average about 2.4 million barrels per day less than the EIA. This is largely due to some countries not reporting to JODI. But these countries only have small changes in their overall production so would have little effect on any of my charts or calculations.

JODI World C+C

According to JODI, world crude oil production peaked, so far, in July and has declined by 339,000 barrels per day.

JODI Non-OPEC

The recent price collapse has had a greater effect on Non-OPEC production than OPEC production. Non-OPEC production peaked, so far, in December 2014 and in December 2015 stood at 650,000 bpd below that peak.

JODI Russia

No discussion of Non-OPEC production would be complete without Russia, Non-OPEC’s largest producer. I would never claim, just by looking at the chart, that Russia is peaking, or has peaked. But there have been reports coming out of Russia for over two years now that Russia is peaking. Some of those reports like this one Global and Russian Energy Outlook to 2040 have been reported on this blog. I think the charts lend strong credence to those reports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken December Data, Big Decline

Bakken December Data, Big Decline

Bakken & North Dakota

Bakken production was down 28,604 barrels per day to 1,096,044 bpd. All North Dakota was down 29,506 bpd to 1,152,280 bpd.

Bakken & ND Amplified

This is just the last two years of the chart above. It gives a slightly better look at what is happening.

Bakken BPD per Well

Barrels per day per well fell to 106 in the Bakken and to 90 in all North Dakota.

North Dakota Wells Producing

From the Director’s Cut

Producing Wells
November 13,100
December 13,119 (preliminary)(all time high was Oct 2015 13,190)
10,756 wells or 82% are now unconventional Bakken–Three forks wells
2,363 wells or 18% produce from legacy conventional pools.
 –
Permitting
November 125 drilling and 0 seismic
December 95 drilling and 0 seismic
January 78 drilling and 0 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)
 –
ND Sweet Crude Price
November $32.16/barrel
December $27.57/barrel
January $21.13/barrel
Today’s $16.50/barrel
(lowest since February 2002)(all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
 –

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions?

Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions?

The EIA STEO only gives monthly data for total liquids. All C+C data is quarterly and annually. The monthly projected data begins in February 2016. Projections for quarterly and annual data begins January 2016.

ST Non-OPEC Liquids

The EIA says Non-OPEC total liquids dropped .5 million barrels per day in December and another .36 mbd in January. But then, other than another short drop in the first quarter of 2017, they see things leveling out for the next two years.

ST World Liquids

For the total world, the EIA expects far better production numbers than just for Non-OPEC. They expect new highs to be reached in 2016 and again in 2017.

ST US Liquids

They see US total liquids dropping in 2016 then they begin a slow rise through 2017, but not overtaking the peak in 2015.

ST Russia Liquids

Apparently the EIA thinks Russia has had it. They see a drop in December 2016 then a huge drop in January  2017. I have no idea why. However the scale here makes the decline seem greater than it really is. From January 2015 to December 2017 the decline is only 400,000 barrels per day.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC January Production

OPEC January Production

Also the charts, except for Libya, are not zero based. I chose to amplify the change rather than the total. The chats do not include Indonesia. That will be added within the next few months when I am able to get better historical data for Indonesian crude only production.

All Data is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 12

OPEC production, not including Indonesia, was up 130,700 barrels per day in December.

MOMR Secondary Sources

OPEC uses secondary sources such as Platts and other agencies to report their production numbers. These numbers are pretty accurate and usually have only slight revisions month to month.

Algeria

Algeria peaked in November 2007 and has been in a steady decline since that point.

Angola

Angola has been holding steady since peaking in 2008 and 2010.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Production Is Going To Drop And Oil Prices Are Likely To Increase

Oil Production Is Going To Drop And Oil Prices Are Likely To Increase

The two below Rystad charts were published by CNN Money on November 23, 2015.

Costs, Overall

This is overall or average cost, not marginal cost. It cost Canada $41 to produce a barrel of oil but only cost Russia $17.20. I guess that is why Canada is cutting back but Russia is not.

Costs, Breakdown Here is the breakdown between capital expenditures and operational expenditures. Why would the United Kingdom’s operational expenditures be two and one half times those of Norway? After all, they are both drilling basically the same oil field.

So why is not the price of oil having a more dramatic effect on production? Well it is, it just takes a while. Here are some plans from about a year and a half ago, when the price of oil was much higher.

Rystad published the two below charts in their US Shale Newsletter in January 2015 but the data dates from the 4th quarter of 2014, just as the price of oil had started to drop.

Cost per Play

At that time Bakken (ND) had a break even price of $53 while Eagle Ford oil had a break even price of $42 and Eagle ford condensate a break even price of $50.

The below chart, from the same newsletter, assumes $90 a barrel oil.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The IEA’s Oil Production Predictions for 2016

The IEA’s Oil Production Predictions for 2016

Non-OPEC oil supplies are nevertheless seen sharply lower in December. Overall supplies are estimated to have slipped by more than 0.6 mb/d from the month prior, to 57.4 mb/d. A seasonal decline in biofuel production, largely due to the Brazilian sugar cane harvest, of nearly 0.4 mb/d was the largest contributor to December’s drop. Production in Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and the US was also seen easing from both November’s level and compared with a year earlier. Persistently low production in Mexico and Yemen were other contributors to the year-on-year decline. 

As such, total non-OPEC liquids output slipped below the year earlier level for the first time since September 2012. A production surge in December 2014 inflates the annual decline rate, but the drop is nevertheless significant should these estimates be confirmed by firm data. Already in November, growth in non-OPEC supply had slipped to 640 kb/d, from as much as 2.9 mb/d at the end of 2014, and 2.4 mb/d for 2014 as a whole. For 2015, supplies look likely to post an increase of 1.4 mb/d for the year, before contracting by nearly 0.6 mb/d in 2016. A prolonged period of oil at sub-$30/bbl puts additional volumes at risk of shut in as realised prices fall close to operating costs for some producers.

IEA Forecast 2

The IEA has every month of 2016 Non-OPEC production below the year over year 2015 production.

IEA Non-OPEC YoY

For the past four years, North America has carried the load as far as the increase in Non-OPEC production is concerned. Now the IEA believes North America will suffer the lions share of the decline in 2016.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun

Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun

The U.S. Empire is in serious trouble as the collapse of its domestic shale gas production has begun.  This is just another nail in a series of nails that have been driven into the U.S. Empire coffin.

Unfortunately, most investors don’t pay attention to what is taking place in the U.S. Energy Industry.  Without energy, the U.S. economy would grind to a halt.  All the trillions of Dollars in financial assets mean nothing without oil, natural gas or coal.  Energy drives the economy and finance steers it.  As I stated several times before, the financial industry is driving us over the cliff.

The Great U.S. Shale Gas Boom Is Likely Over For Good

Very few Americans noticed that the top four shale gas fields combined production peaked back in July 2015.  Total shale gas production from the Barnett, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus peaked at 27.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July and fell to 26.7 Bcf/d by December 2015:

Steve 1

As we can see from the chart, the Barnett and Haynesville peaked four years ago at the end of 2011.  Here are the production profiles for each shale gas field:

Steve 2

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), the Barnett shale gas production peaked on November 2011 and is down 32% from its high.  The Barnett produced a record 5 Bcf/d of shale gas in 2011 and is currently producing only 3.4 Bcf/d.  Furthermore, the drilling rig count in the Barnett is down a stunning 84% in over the past year.

Steve 3

The Haynesville was the second to peak on Jan 2012 at 7.2 Bcf/d per day and is currently producing 3.6 Bcf/d.  This was a huge 50% decline from its peak.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

A Closer Look at OPEC

A Closer Look at OPEC

Iran and Libya have had serious political disruptions in their production numbers. Simply adding them to the OPEC numbers distorts the picture. To try to figure out what has been happening to OPEC we need to look at OPEC without Iran and Libya.

OPEC Less Iran and Libya

Here is OPEC less Iran and Libya, or the OPEC 10 if you will. I have marked August 2012 as what I call the “Price Peak”. Not the peak in oil prices but the production peak that was brought about by the increase in the price of oil. That price increase began in early 2009 and by March 2011 was well above $100 a barrel. And the price of oil did not drop below $100 a barrel until late August 2014.

OPEC 10

Here are is the production change from August 2012 to December 2015. As you can see the lions share of increase came from Iraq with a little help from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

OPEC 9

Removing Iraq from the mix and the remaining 9 OPEC nations were actually down during that period. Except for Iraq, OPEC production from August 2012 until the present, is actually down in spite of the price of oil being in excess of $100. And that is not even counting the huge decline from Libya during this period. The Iranian decline was prior to this period.

The price data in the chart below is from the Mundi Index and is the average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh, US Dollars per Barrel.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Texas Oil and Gas Production Declining

Texas Oil and Gas Production Declining

All RRC data is through November 2015 but the EIA data is only through October. The oil data is in barrels per day.

Texas C+C

The trend is definitely down. The scale makes it difficult to gauge the month to month change but I have the exact month to month change here in barrels per day. Of course this only gives you a general idea of what is happening. The final change could be either less or greater than the numbers indicate here. But the EIA data should be very close.

Jun. to Jul.  7,245
Jul. to Aug. -63,827
Aug. to Sep. 34,507
Sep. to Oct. -33,486
Oct. to Nov. -52,802
Jun. to Nov. -108,363

EIA Dec. to Oct. -121,000

Dean C+C

Dr. Dean Fantazzini has developed an algorithm that gives a very close estimate of what the final data will look like. His data and the EIA data track each other pretty close.

Texas Crude Only

Crude only has had the lions share of the decline, the incomplete data is down 91,000 bpd since June.Dean Oil

Dr. Dean Fantazzini’s corrected data indicates that crude only will actually be down about what the incomplete data indicates.

Texas Condensate

Condensate shows a slightly more erratic decline, down 17,000 bpd since June.

Dean Condensate

And Dean’s condensate chart disagrees slightly with what I would estimate. He has condensate up in October where the RRC incomplete data has it down.

Texas Total Gas

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

International Rig Counts Still Falling

International Rig Counts Still Falling

BH Total Intl.

Total international rig count was down 14 rigs from November to December. From December 2014 to December 2015 rig count was down 218 rigs or 16.6 percent.

BH Latin America

Latin America was down 14 rigs from November and down 99 rigs or 26.8 percent since December of 2014.

BH Europe

Europe was up 6 rigs in December but down 34 rigs from December or 23 percent from December 2014.

BH Africa

Africa was up 1 rig in December but down 47 rigs or 34.1 percent since December 2014.

BH Middle East

The Middle East was up 3 rigs in December and up 19 rigs or 19 percent since December 2014.

BH Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific was down 10 rigs in December and down 57 rigs or 22.4 percent since December 2014.

BH Total World

Baker Hughes Total World is just Total International plus the US and Canada. It still does not include any FSU nation or on shore China.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Confessions of a Doomer

Confessions of a Doomer

I need to tell you of a very special talent I have. I have the very unusual and rare ability to find, to ferret out if you will, the blatantly obvious. I mean if it is as plain as the nose on your face, I am going to figure it out. What shocks me is that this ability is so rare. What is happening to our earth and our species is so obvious it is mind blowing.

I could give you thousands of forest disappearing, deserts expanding, rivers drying up, water tables dropping, top soil disappearing, species going extinct, ocean fish disappearing, pollution and plastic waste killing sea birds, and on and on and on. But I will start with one example that exemplifies what is happening to the entire world, the Aral Sea.

What has been happening to the world can be exemplified by this short 3 minute video on the Aral Sea: The Aral Sea story.

Aral Sea 1

The Aral Sea was once the fifth largest inland sea in the world. It supported a huge fishing industry. But that was before they dammed its tributaries to irrigate cotton fields.

Aral Sea 2

Aral Sea 7

By 2000 it was mostly gone. The 1960 shoreline is shown on this photograph.

Aral Sea 10

And today it is almost completely gone.

Aral Sea 13

Of course the fishing fleet is still there.

Lake Chad

Of course almost the exact same story can be told about Lake Chad. This once vast inland body of water once supported tens of thousands with its bountiful fish supply is now not much more than a small mud hole.

What is happening to the Aral Sea and Lake Chad is happening to the entire world. Rivers are drying up. Water tables all over the world are dropping, some by meters per year. Land in India and China, as well as in other Asian nations, irrigated from underground water, that once fed billions, now feed far less and will soon feed none.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Doubting The Peak

Doubting The Peak

If we take some of the larger producers that have been increasing output and compare with the rest of the world(ROW) using EIA data from Jan 2004 to June 2015 (using the trailing 12 month average to focus on the trend) we see ROW decline has been relatively modest (1.4% based on the trailing 12 month output in June 2015). The eight increasing producing countries I have chosen are Brazil, Canada, China, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and US and ROW=World minus the 8 countries just listed.

One possible scenario is that output is flat for the Big 8 in 2016 so that World C+C output falls by 485 kb/d in 2016 (average output for the year compared to the 2015 average). Over the 2009 to Jun 2015 period the Big 8 increased output at about 1300 kb/d per year, if we assume this rate slows to half the previous rate to a 650 kb/d per year increase (1.4%/year), then the peak is surpassed in 4 years in 2019. On a per country basis this would be a little more than a 80 kb/d increase in average annual output for each of these countries, though I doubt it would be divided equally.

So I have taken close look Dennis’s “Big 8” countries as well as “The Rest of the World”, and  looked at their JODI data charts. The last data point is October 2015.

First, the rest of the world.

Dennis's Rest of the World

This is the world less Brazil, Canada, China, Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. As a group they peaked in October 2004 and have been in decline ever since.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook

OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook

In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and “liquids” only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.

OPEC Med. Term Outlook

Here is their medium term outlook chart. Notice they expect both OPEC and Non-OPEC crude to decline in 2016 but Non-OPEC crude starts a slow recovery in 2017. They say OPEC crude will not start their recovery until 2019.

OPEC Long Term Outlook

Here is their long term outlook. Notice the tremendous growth in “Other Liquids”, whatever that is.

OPEC Outlook Non-OPEC Crude

OPEC expects Non-OPEC crude to be down in 2016 but to begin a slow recovery in 2017. I think that outlook is way too optimistic.

OPEC Outlook OPEC

OPEC thinks their short term production has peaked and will decline by 100,000 barrels per day next year and hold on a flat plateau until sometime after 2010.

OPEC Outlook World Crude

Adding OPEC and Non-OPEC crude we see that OPEC thinks World crude production will decline next year but begin a slow increase starting in 2017. Also notice that OPEC’s estimate of current crude production is well below what the EIA says is being produced and even below JODI’s production numbers. I think this is because OPEC does not count Condensate. Other than that I do not have an explanation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

All Roads Lead To Peak Oil

I use the Canadian National Energy Base data for Canada instead of the strange numbers JODI has for Canada. And I use the EIA data for the few small producers that JODI does not report.

With these Changes I think I have composed an excellent World Oil Database from this composite data. And with the October data just released I have composed the below charts. The data is through October and is in thousand barrels per day.

JODI World C+C

World oil production peaked, so far, in July at 76,702,000 barrels per day and in October stood at 76,128,000 bpd or 574,000 bpd below the peak.

JODI Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC peaked, so far, in December 2014 at 45,530,000 bpd and in October stood at 44,662,000, down 868,000 bpd or just under 2% in 10 months.

JODI Non-OPEC 4 years

For the first time in 4 years Non-OPEC production has dropped below the level it was the same month the previous year. This means the 12 month trailing average has turned negative, though just barely.

Jodi Non-OPEC less USA

Non-OPEC less the USA has been on a 12 year bumpy plateau. In fact it stood at 35,422,000 barrels per day in October, 214,000 bpd less than the level reached in December 2003.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA Says Shale Continues to Decline

EIA Says Shale Continues to Decline

DPR Totals

The big drops here are Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara. They have the Permian still increasing in production. An expected drop of 116,000 barrels per day drop in January is very significant.

DPR Bakken

They have the Bakken in a continual decline after July. It is important to note that the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has the Bakken decline, July thrugh September, very close to what the North Dakota Industrial Commission has. So it appears that the DPR is getting better with its production estimates.

DPR Eagle Ford

Eagle Ford is where the action is, or isn’t, depending on your point of view. Dropping 77,000 barrels per day to start the New Year does not bode well for shale production in 2016.

DPR Niobrara

Niobrara appears to have the steepest drop since the March peak. But actually they, if the DPR is correct, will be down 28.37% since March while Eagle Ford is down 29.81%, The Bakken will be down 10.35% while the Permian will be up 7.59%.

DPR Permian

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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