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Donald Trump and the Next Crash: Making the Fed an Instrument for Disaster
Donald Trump and the Next Crash: Making the Fed an Instrument for Disaster Photo by futureatlas.com | CC BY 2.0 Warning: What you are about to read is not about Russia, the 2016 election, or the latest person to depart from the White House in a storm of tweets. It’s the Beltway story hiding in […]
Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict
Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict The Turkish government has made the decision to repatriate all of its gold reserves that are currently housed in the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Overall Turkey was storing 220 tonnes, valued at $25.3 billion, in the US, which it repossessed on April 19, […]
Markets Better Prepare for Stagflation
Markets Better Prepare for Stagflation By all metrics, prices are heating up. But the same can’t be said for economic activity. Pray for Jerome Powell. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg Investors better wake up to the growing risk of stagflation. The coming weeks promise to deliver the verdict on how they should be positioned. By […]
There is Over $7.5 Trillion In Debt That’s Highly Vulnerable To Rising Rates – Here’s What To Expect
There is Over $7.5 Trillion In Debt That’s Highly Vulnerable To Rising Rates – Here’s What To Expect The 10-year interest rate hit the critical level of 3% this morning. And this is the highest level it’s been since 2014 – four years ago. . . A couple months back, I highlighted the correlation of […]
Fox in the Hen House: Why Interest Rates Are Rising
Fox in the Hen House: Why Interest Rates Are Rising On March 31stthe Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time in 3 years and signaled its intention to raise rates twice more in 2018, aiming for a fed funds target of 3.5% by 2020. LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) has […]
Belief in Inflation (And 4 or More Rate Hikes in 2018) Picks Up
Belief in Inflation (And 4 or More Rate Hikes in 2018) Picks Up Investors Increasingly believe the Fed may hike four or more times in 2018. The inflation scare is picking up steam. Due to Federal Reserve Beige Book regional reports, investors increasingly believe the Fed will go on a rate hike spree this year. […]
Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead
Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019 Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist. The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He’s worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues […]
The Central Bank Crisis on the Immediate Horizon
The Central Bank Crisis on the Immediate Horizon While the majority keep bashing the Federal Reserve, other central banks seem to escape any criticism. The European Central Bank under Mario Draghi has engaged in what history will call the Great Monetary Experiment of the 21st Century – the daring experiment of negative interest rates. A look […]
Jerome Is The New Janet: Tie, Trousers And Same Old Keynesian Jabberwocky
Jerome Is The New Janet: Tie, Trousers And Same Old Keynesian Jabberwocky The election of 2016 was supposed to be the most disruptive break with the status quo in modern history, if ever. On the single most important decision of his tenure, however, the Donald has lined-up check-by-jowl with Barry and Dubya, too. That is to […]
What to Expect From Central Bankers
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM CENTRAL BANKERS The Federal Reserve continues to tighten and other Central Banks will follow The BIS expects stocks to lose their lustre and bond yields to rise The normalisation process will be protracted, like the QE it replaces Macro prudential policy will have greater emphasis during the next boom As financial […]
What a Hoot: Fed Chairman Powell Says “Growth Has Picked Up”
What a Hoot: Fed Chairman Powell Says “Growth Has Picked Up” In his first non-FOMC speech, Jerome Powell stresses growth and jobs. Inquiring minds are investigating Jerome Powell’s speech on his Outlook for the U.S. Economy presented today at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Here are a few key quotes. After what at […]
The Next Crisis Will Be The Last
The Next Crisis Will Be The Last It is an interesting thing. Throughout the last four decades there is a direct link between the actions of the Federal Reserve and the eventual economic and market outcomes due to changes in monetary policy. In every case, that outcome has been negative. The general consensus continues to […]
Bank of Japan Buys Record Amount of Equity ETFs: Once Upon a Time
Bank of Japan Buys Record Amount of Equity ETFs: Once Upon a Time The Japanese stock market fell, so the Bank of Japan bought more equity funds. After cornering the bond market, the Bank of Japan has its sight on the stock market with a Record Buying Binge in March. The Bank of Japan spent […]
The Risk of the Fed’s Continuous Rate Hikes
The Risk of the Fed’s Continuous Rate Hikes This past week, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25%. The effective Fed fund rate is now 1.63% – the highest since the big market crash of 2008. However, it could get as high as 3.375% by 2020. The decade 2020 – 2029 could see a high-tech […]
Stocks Post WORST April Start Since The Great Depression
Stocks Post WORST April Start Since The Great Depression The S&P 500 closed down more than 2.4% Monday and the broad market index posted its worst April start since 1929. This slide in the markets caused the worst start since the Great Depression, sparking fears we are on the same path. The Dow Jones industrial average fell […]
