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Tag Archives: credit
Weekly Commentary: Q2 2018 Z.1 Flow of Funds
Weekly Commentary: Q2 2018 Z.1 Flow of Funds Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded at a seasonally-adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of $2.283 TN during the quarter. While this was down from Q1’s booming SAAR $3.681 TN, it nonetheless puts first-half Credit growth at an almost $3.0 TN pace. Annual NFD growth has exceeded $2.0 TN only […]
When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally End?
When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally End? Credit bubbles are not engines of sustainable employment, they are only engines of malinvestment and wealth destruction on a grand scale. We all know the Status Quo’s response to the global financial meltdown of 2008 has been a travesty of a mockery of […]
Clinging to Old Theories of Inflation
Clinging to Old Theories of Inflation QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I think I am starting to understand your view of inflation. It is very complex. I think some people cannot think beyond a simple one dimension concept as you often say. So I am trying to be more dynamic in my thinking process. Here you point […]
Yellen Wants Fed to Commit to Future Booms to Make Up for Busts
Yellen Wants Fed to Commit to Future Booms to Make Up for Busts Former Fed Chair Yellen promotes “Lower for Longer”, a policy in which the Fed knowingly keeps interest rates too low. Here’s the asinine policy proposal of the day: Fed Should Commit to Future ‘Booms’ to Make Up for Major Busts. The U.S. […]
Corporate Credit – A Chasm Between Risk Perceptions and Actual Risk
Corporate Credit – A Chasm Between Risk Perceptions and Actual Risk Shifts in Credit-Land: Repatriation Hurts Small Corporate Borrowers A recent Bloomberg article informs us that US companies with large cash hoards (such as AAPL and ORCL) were sizable players in corporate debt markets, supplying plenty of funds to borrowers in need of US dollars. […]
How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable
How Things Fall Apart: Extremes Aren’t Stable A funny thing happens on the way to stabilizing things by doing more of what’s failed: the system becomes even more unstable, brittle and fragile. A peculiar faith in pushing extremes to new heights has taken hold in official circles over the past decade: when past extremes push […]
There Goes The Credit Impulse: Why Chinese Consumption Is On The Verge Of Collapse
There Goes The Credit Impulse: Why Chinese Consumption Is On The Verge Of Collapse Recently we discussed how in addition to the widely manipulated Chinese GDP data, new concerns had emerged about official data involving Chinese industrial profits, because while China’s National Bureau of Statistics has traditionally reported positive year-on-year growth rates in percentage terms, […]
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)
It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things) The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets. Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.” […]
Gold Yuan Crypto
Gold Yuan Crypto George Caleb Bingham The verdict of the people 1854It’s been a while since we last heard from Dr. D, but here he’s back explaining why neither gold nor the yuan nor cryptocurrencies can or will replace the dollar as the reserve currency, but together they just might: Dr. D: “Some debts are […]
Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming
Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming Since 2008 the growth in global credit has been on the back of China. Real estate led the way. Now what? Inquiring minds should take a look at FT Alphaville article Chinese Real Estate, Charted. Here is the key chart. In March, Jim Chanos stated […]
China Threatened By “Vicious Circle Of Panic Selling” From Marketwide Margin Call
China Threatened By “Vicious Circle Of Panic Selling” From Marketwide Margin Call Two weeks ago, when commenting on the PBOC’s latest required reserve ratio cut, we pointed out that one of the more prominent risks facing the Chinese stock market, and potentially explaining why the Shanghai Composite simply can’t catch a bid during the recent […]
Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head
Inflation Rearing Its Ugly Head The world of finance and investment, as always, faces many uncertainties. The US economy is booming, say some, and others warn that money supply growth has slowed, raising fears of impending deflation. We fret about the banks, with a well-known systemically-important European name in difficulties. We worry about the disintegration […]
Confronting the money-power elite
Confronting the money-power elite Those who control the creation and allocation of money are able to control every other aspect of society. Shouldn’t that be us? Credit: Flickr/Liz West. CC BY 2.0. The world today is controlled by a small elite group that has been increasingly concentrating power and wealth in their own hands. There […]
Chinese Shadow Bank Lending Unexpectedly Crashes, Sending Total Credit Creation To Two-Year Low
Chinese Shadow Bank Lending Unexpectedly Crashes, Sending Total Credit Creation To Two-Year Low According to most flow-tracking economists (and not their clueless, conventionally-trained peers) when one strips away the noise, there are just two things that matter for the global economy and asset prices: central bank liquidity injections, and Chinese credit creation. This is shown […]
The Role of Shadow Banking in the Business Cycle
THE ROLE OF SHADOW BANKING IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE 1The process of lending and the uninterrupted flow of credit to the real economy no longer rely only on banks, but on a process that spans a network of banks, broker-dealers, asset managers, and shadow banks funded through wholesale funding and capital markets globally. – Pozsaret […]
