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Ukraine failed to convince its biggest creditors to significantly reduce its debt obligations during a ‘last chance’ two-day negotiation in San Francisco, California. The delegation from Kiev hoped to restructure some $19 billion in debt.

The Ukrainian delegation was headed up by Illinois-born Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko. Meanwhile, the creditors were represented by Franklin Templeton Investments, which holds about $8.9 billion worth of Ukrainian debt in the form of bonds.

The two sides said they had conducted “detailed discussions” in the city, but no progress has reportedly been achieved.

Even though there have been no official statements concerning the negotiations, Ukraine had previously asked for a 40 percent debt write-off, Bloomberg cited sources as saying. Reportedly, Franklin Templeton Investments was only willing to offer a 5 percent reduction to bond principal conditional on economic performance.

Ukraine described the talks near Templeton’s headquarters as the “final opportunity” to agree on something prior to next month’s due date for $500 million worth of bonds.

Even lobbying by influential US hedge fund billionaire George Soros, who recently had an article published in the Wall Street Journal titled ‘Ukraine Deserves Debt Relief,’ did not seem to make an impact.

In the piece, Soros argued that investors should stand behind Ukraine in its request for debt relief, which would help the country save some $15.3 billion in debt-servicing costs over the next four years as well as lower debt to below 71 percent of GDP by 2020. Ukraine must achieve those milestones if it hopes to take advantage of a proposed IMF bailout program.

The country’s GDP is expected to shrink 9 percent this year, with annual inflation expected to jump to 46 percent, the IMF has warned. The debt will hit 95 percent of GDP this year, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greeks Ditch Euro For Alternative Currencies As Parliament Votes On Bailout

August 13, 2015

Greeks Ditch Euro For Alternative Currencies As Parliament Votes On Bailout

Greece released a bit of amusing econ data on Thursday, as the country’s statistical authority claimed GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2, well ahead of estimates of a 0.5% contraction. While we suppose it’s feasible that things weren’t as bad in Q2 as they have been since (capital controls weren’t in place during the quarter), we think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone in Greece who thought things were looking up for the economy heading into the referendum. In any event it doesn’t matter, because as WSJ notes, the fiscal retrenchment enshrined in the country’s third bailout program combined with the generally poor outlook means Greece faces a two-year recession – at least:

Greece faces two years of recession amid sharp budget cuts and overhauls mandated by its €86 billion ($95 billion) bailout agreement, European Union officials said, as Greek Prime MinisterAlexis Tsipras expressed confidence that the deal would be completed.

The country’s economy is expected to shrink 2.3% this year because of the recent months of turmoil and the cuts required by the bailout, the officials said, citing the latest estimates from the institutions that have been negotiating Greece’s new aid program. Next year, it is projected to contract 1.3%.

Miraculously, the Greek economy is expected to rebound sharply in 2017, when it will supposedly grow at 2.7%. Clearly that’s optimistic to the point of being largely meaningless, but that’s the story Athens and creditors are sticking to for now and on Thursday, Greek lawmakers will be herded into parliament where they’ll be pressured to pass some 40 new laws which will serve to plunge the country even further into depression than it already plunged during the first two months of Q3.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The IMF Experts Flunk, Again

August 1, 2015

The IMF Experts Flunk, Again

If all goes according to plan, the left-wing Greek government will come to an agreement with the so-called troika — the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — over the details of a third bailout program by August 20th. This rescue package will probably be worth €86 billion (U.S. $94.5 billion). So, since 2010, Greece will have received three bailouts worth a whopping €430 billion (U.S. $472.2 billion). This amounts to a staggering €39,000 (U.S. $42,831) for every man, woman, and child in Greece.

Like past bailouts, the third one will fail to stop Greece’s economic death spiral. The experts from the EC, ECB, and particularly those from the IMF have been wrong about the prospects for the Greek economy since day one. The experts have failed to embrace a coherent theory of national income determination. Indeed, they have often engaged in ad hoc theorizing that has, at times, appeared to be convoluted and politically motivated. The result has been a series of wildly optimistic forecasts about the course of the Greek economy followed by wrongheaded policies.

What has been missing from the experts’ toolkit is the monetarist model of national income determination. The monetary approach posits that changes in the money supply, broadly determined, cause changes in nominal national income and the price level (as well as relative prices — like asset prices). Sure enough, the growth of broad money and nominal GDP are closely linked. The data in the following chart speak loudly to the linkage.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The War On Cash: Why Now?

July 29, 2015

The War On Cash: Why Now?

You’ve probably read that there is a “war on cash” being waged on various fronts around the world. What exactly does a “war on cash” mean?

It means governments are limiting the use of cash and a variety of official-mouthpiece economists are calling for the outright abolition of cash. Authorities are both restricting the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks, and limiting what can be purchased with cash.

These limits are broadly called “capital controls.”

Why Now?

Before we get to that, let’s distinguish between physical cash — currency and coins in your possession — and digital cash in the bank. The difference is self-evident: cash in hand cannot be confiscated by a “bail-in” (i.e., officially sanctioned theft) in which the government or bank expropriates a percentage of cash deposited in the bank. Cash in hand cannot be chipped away by negative interest rates or fees.

Cash in the bank cannot be withdrawn in a financial emergency that shutters the banks (i.e., a bank holiday).

When pundits suggest cash is “obsolete,” they mean physical paper money and coins, not cash in a bank. Cash in the bank is perfectly fine with the government and its well-paid yes-men (paging Mr. Rogoff and Mr. Buiter) because this cash can be expropriated by either “bail-ins” or by negative interest rates.

Inflation and Negative Interest Rates

Mr. Buiter, for example, recently opined that the spot of bother in 2008–09 (the Global Financial Meltdown) could have been avoided if banks had only charged a 6 percent negative interest rate on cash: in effect, taking 6 percent of the depositor’s cash to force everyone to spend what cash they might have.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Austrian Bad Bank “Black Swan” Bail-In Is Unconstitutional, Austria Declare

July 28, 2015

Austrian Bad Bank “Black Swan” Bail-In Is Unconstitutional, Austria Declare

The subject of bail-ins and bank resolutions is back in the news this month as every eurocrat in Brussels scrambles to determine the best way to recapitalize Greece’s ailing banking sector, which, you’re reminded, is sinking further into insolvency with each passing day thanks to the unyielding upward pressure on NPLs that’s part and parcel the country’s outright economic collapse.

And while you could be forgiven for focusing squarely on the trainwreck that’s occurring in Athens, it would be a mistake to ignore the fact that just a few months back, a black swan landed in Austria when a €7.6 billion capital hole was “discovered” in Heta Asset Resolution, the vehicle set up to resolve the now defunct lender Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank.

In short, the bad bank went bad, and when it became clear that no further state support was forthcoming, Heta Asset Resolution was itself put into resolution and a moratorium on bond payments was declared.

The debacle raised a number of troubling issues not the least of which involves the beautifully picturesquesouthern Austrian province of Carinthia, which had guaranteed some €10 billion worth of Heta debt despite the rather inconvenient fact that annual provincial revenues only amount to around €2.3 billion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece crisis: Banks reopen as government eyes return to normalcy

July 20, 2015

Greece crisis: Banks reopen as government eyes return to normalcy

Stock market remains closed

Greek banks opened their doors Monday for the first time in over three weeks, a move that the government hopes will help the economy get back to normal following a period dominated by fears over the country’s future in the euro.

Still, strict controls on the amounts individuals can withdraw remain and new austerity taxes demanded by the country’s European creditors mean that most everyday items are more expensive — from coffee to taxis to cooking oil.

In downtown Athens, people queued up in an orderly fashion as the banks unlocked their doors at 8 a.m., but restrictions on most transactions remained.

Though the daily cash withdrawal limit stayed at 60 euros, the government has given individuals a new weekly limit of 420 euros from this coming Sunday so they don’t need to trudge to the ATM every day.

Ready cash is something Greeks will need as new taxes also came into effect on a wide array of goods and services Monday.

Sales taxes have risen from 13 per cent to 23 per cent on many basic goods — including some meats, cooking oils, coffee, tea, cocoa, vinegar, salt, flowers, firewood, fertilizer, insecticides, sanitary towels and condoms.

Popular services were also hit by the new taxes: restaurants and cafes, funeral homes, taxis, ferries, cram schools and language schools.

The new taxes are part of a package of confidence-building measures that the Greek government had to introduce in order for negotiations on a third bailout to begin.

Since the Greek parliament passed the measures, creditors have sought to relieve the pressure on Greece. The European Central Bank has raised the amount of liquidity assistance on offer to Greek banks while Greece’s partners in the 19-country eurozone agreed to give Athens a short-term loan so it wouldn’t default on a 4.2 billion-euro debt due to the ECB on Monday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

All Hail Our Banking Overlords!

July 18, 2015

All Hail Our Banking Overlords!

We work for them, plain & simple

You really have to be paying attention to see what’s truly going on these days. The keepers of the system, that is the banking elites, now openly control everything — though you’d never know that by listening to the media.

Consider this:

Eurozone backs €7bn bridging loan

Jul 16, 2105

Eurozone ministers have agreed to give Greece a €7bn (£5bn) bridging loan from an EU-wide fund to keep its finances afloat until a bailout is approved.

The loan is expected to be confirmed on Friday by all EU member states.

In another development, the European Central Bank (ECB) agreed to increase emergency funding to Greece for the first time since it was frozen in June.

The decisions were made after Greek MPs passed tough reforms as part of a eurozone bailout deal.

How generous of the finance ministers of all those EU member states to agree to a “bridge loan” that will help Greece “keep its finances afloat”. This should provide the people of Greece with a bit of breathing room, right? Maybe access to their bank accounts (finally!), perhaps?

No, not at all. Here’s what the entirety of the “”loan”” will go towards instead:

The bridging loan means Greece will be able to repay debts to the ECB and IMF on Monday.

Ummmm…that “money” will not ever go anywhere near Greece.

This is all merely electronic window-dressing for entirely esoteric bookkeeping purposes. Servers will blink at one location in Europe as digital 1s and 0s are transmitted to another. The electronic balances at the ECB and the IMF will change, but not much else.

The people of Greece will see none of it. Nor will they see their bank accounts unfrozen.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Greece May Not Get Bailout, Grexit “The Better Way”, Schaeuble Says

July 16, 2015

Greece May Not Get Bailout, Grexit “The Better Way”, Schaeuble Says

Last Saturday, the EU finance ministers who gathered in Brussels in a last ditch effort to keep Greece in the eurozone were forced to confront a rather inconvenient truth. A bailout for Athens would likely cost nearly €80 billion, far more than the €53 billion figure mentioned in the draft proposal submitted by Alexis Tsipras two days earlier. The revised figure included a €25 billion provision for the recapitalization of Greece’s ailing banking sector. A day earlier, we warned that the banks would need at least €10 billion and likely more – “don’t tell Merkel”, we warned.

Judging by the date on a document that began to circulate once the finance ministers began to voice their consternation at the larger figure, Germany had already assessed the possibility that the cost of a potential third program for the Greeks was likely to climb prompting the finance ministry to prepare a document outlining two alternative options for Athens. One of these options was a 5-year Greek “time-out” from the eurozone. Initially (and by “initially” we mean for perhaps a few hours after the document was first distributed) the “time-out” idea was written off as simply another manifestation of Wolfgang Schaeuble’s frustration, but by Sunday it was clear that the idea was no laughing matter – indeed, had the bloc’s sleep deprived leaders not inked a ludicrous agreement at 6am in the morning, the “soft” Grexit scenario might already be well underway.

Now that reports from both the IMF and the European Commission on Greece’s debt sustainability are public, the world is well aware that no one, anywhere, truly believes the Greeks will ever be able to return to economic prosperity if they are forced to labor under their current debt load. In short: a “re-profiling” is necessary.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When a Black Swan Flies Over Wall Street’s House of Cards

July 13, 2015

When a Black Swan Flies Over Wall Street’s House of Cards

A black swan is Wall Street lexicon for an unpredicted event. The author of that concept, Nassim Taleb, opines that most of the major moves in stock market history originated as black swan events coming out of nowhere, with a random, stochastic disorderliness that pushes markets into wild gyrations and implosion.

But subliminally, everyday, CNBC and Bloomberg market mavens reassure us that the market hovers only a few percentage points off all time highs, that unemployment is moderating, and projected GDP, if not robust, is certainly positive.

Still, outliers like Ron Paul endlessly pontificate that we are living in a fairy tale house of cards.

The Fed has pumped about $4.6 trillion into our economy—“quantitative easing,” a term Ron feels is printing money out of thin air. What bothers the former Congressman is that the Fed won’t submit to a real audit, and he suspects it is hiding something far darker. “If the Fed has nothing to hide, it has nothing to fear.” [1]

So what is it hiding? The Fed may have surreptitiously lent $16 trillion to foreign banks completely under the radar and without any approval of anyone. Says Bernie Sanders “No agency of the United States government should be allowed to bailout a foreign bank or corporation without the direct approval of Congress and the President.”[2] The Fed may have done exactly that.

Just to keep these numbers in perspective, the total value of the entire U.S. economy, $17.4 trillion, is less than what the Fed may have been printing, unaudited, and all by its lonesome since 2008.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“No Deal”: Tsipras Says Creditors Did Not Accept Greek Proposal

June 24, 2015

“No Deal”: Tsipras Says Creditors Did Not Accept Greek Proposal

Who could have possibly foreseen that the IMF would throw up all over the Greek “proposal”… aside from this post here “Why The IMF Will Reject The Latest Greek Proposal In Just Two Numbers” yesterday afternoon of course. In any event, moments ago Bloomberg reported that just as we wrote here yesterday afternoon, there is no deal and that Greek PM Alexis Tsipras told his associates that creditors not accepting equivalent fiscal measures has never happened before, according to a Greek govt official, who asked not to be named in line with policy.

Creditors “not accepting parametric measures has never happened before. Neither in Ireland, nor in Portugal, nor anywhere. This strange stance can hide two scenarios; they either don’t want an agreement or serve specific interests in Greece,” the official cited Tsipras as saying.”

As a reminder, Tsipras is meeting Wednesday with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in an effort to reach a deal before Greece’s bailout expires and about 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) in payments come due to the IMF on June 30.

Here is the man himself tweeting as much and confirming that the blame game continues:

The repeated rejection of equivalent measures by certain institutions never occurred before-neither in Ireland nor Portugal. #Greece (1/2)

6:32 AM – 24 Jun 2015

This odd stance seems to indicate that either there is no interest in an agreement or that special interests are being backed. #Greece (2/2)

6:32 AM – 24 Jun 2015

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Violates IMF Rules, to Continue Ukraine Bailouts

June 21, 2015

IMF Violates IMF Rules, to Continue Ukraine Bailouts

The IMF, whose bailout operations are absorbed by the taxpayers in the member countries whenever a particular bailed-out nation defaults, announced on Friday, June 19th, that it will “continue to support Ukraine through its Lending-into-Arrears Policy even in the event that a negotiated agreement with creditors in line with the program cannot be reached in a timely manner.” Though this new “Lending-into-Arrears” policy violates two IMF rules, it was justified by the IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde on the basis of the Ukrainian government’s “continued efforts to reach a collaborative agreement with all creditors.”

In other words: a statement by Ukraine’s government that it wants to reach an agreement with its private creditors is being used by the IMF as if it were an excuse to extend into the indefinite future the IMF’s continued taxpayer-guaranteed financing of (‘lending’ to) the Ukrainian government, despite the fact that the IMF is violating two of the IMF’s own most-basic rules restricting its lending-authority — these rules are lending-restrictions whose purpose was to reduce the riskiness of the IMF’s lending, and so to minimize the amount that the IMF will be taking from taxpayers to fund its losses:

1: The IMF does not lend to nations at war — but Ukraine continues being at war against its former Donbass region despite the Minsk II ceasefire agreement; ceasefire violations, especially by the Ukrainian side, continue regularly.

2: The IMF does not lend to nations that are likely to default — but every independent source categorizes Ukraine as being virtually certain to default, and the only actual question regarding Ukraine is: when? The IMF’s answer: we’ll keep lending, building Ukraine’s public debt even higher, until our aim is achieved, and then we won’t — and that’s when the default will occur — the default will happen when we decide it will happen. It will happen when we will stop lying and saying that it won’t happen.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The One Bank, Revisited

June 13, 2015

The One Bank, Revisited

Approximately two years ago; a commentary was published entitled “The One Bank”. The empirical foundation for the article (and the paradigm) was an extensive computer model, produced by a trio of academics at a university in Switzerland, and originally reviewed in an article from Forbes.

The gist of the computer modeling was that a single “super-entity”, by itself, controlled roughly 40% of the global economy. The term “super-entity” is simply a synonym for monopoly. The research further stipulated that ¾ of the 140+ (gigantic) corporate fronts which comprised this mega-monopoly were financial intermediaries (i.e. banks), hence the title, The One Bank.

The research names “names”. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Credit Suisse, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers are among the Big Banks listed as being tentacles of this enormous, financial crime syndicate. Note that the latter names on that list are deceased, (supposed) “casualties” of the Crash of ’08. But with all of these financial tentacles part of a single whole; this proves that the bail-outs which came after that event, and even the crash itself were pure fraud.

All of these financial losses were internal: one tentacle of the crime syndicate (supposedly) “losing money” to another tentacle of the same entity, meaning they were just phony, paper-losses which never really existed. The tentacle on the receiving end of the “losses” was enriched by that amount, meanwhile the tentacle on the losing end was indemnified via (fraudulent) taxpayer-funded “bail-outs”. Heads I win; tails you lose.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Not Tell Greece How To Run A Democracy?

May 15, 2015

Why Not Tell Greece How To Run A Democracy?

I know I’ve talked about this before, but it just keeps coming and it keeps being crzay.Bloomberg ‘reports’ that the ‘German Finance Ministry’, let me get this right, “is supporting the idea of a vote by Greek citizens to either accept the economic reforms being sought by creditors to receive a payout from the country’s bailout program or ultimately opt to leave the euro.” And that’s it.

They ‘report’ this as if it has some sort of actual value, as if it’s a real thing. Whereas in reality, it has the exact same value as Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis suggesting a referendum in Germany. Or Washington, for that matter. Something that Bloomberg wouldn’t even dream of ‘reporting’ in any kind of serious way, though the political value would be identical.

Apparently there is some kind of consensus in the international press – Bloomberg was by no means the only ‘news service’ that ‘reported’ this – that Germany has obtained the right to meddle in the internal politics of other eurozone member nations. And let’s get this one thing very clear: it has not.

No more than the Greek government has somehow acquired the right to even vent its opinions on German domestic issues. It is a no-go area for all European Union countries. More than that, it’s no-go for all nations in the world, and certainly in cases where governments have been democratically elected.

So why do Bloomberg and Reuters and all the others disregard such simple principles? All I can think is they entirely lost track of reality, and they live in a world where reality is what they say it is.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Greece About To “Lose” Its Gold Again?

April 25, 2015

Is Greece About To “Lose” Its Gold Again?

When it comes to the topic of Greece, most pundits focus on two items: i) when will Greece finally run out ofconfiscated cash, and ii) will Greece fold to the Troika (and agree to another bailout(s) with even more austerity) or to Russia (and agree to the passage of the Russian Turkish Stream pipeline, potentially exiting NATO and becoming the most important European satellite of the USSR 2.0) once that moment arrives.

And yet what everyone appears to be forgetting is a nuanced clause buried deep in the term sheet of the second Greek bailout: a bailout whose terms will be ultimately reneged upon if and when Greece defaults on its debt to the Troika (either in or out of the Eurozone). Recall that as per our report from February 2012, in addition to losing its sovereignty years ago, Greece also lost something far more important. It’s gold:

To wit:

Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal.

The “new deal”referred to is the Second Greek Bailout, which either will be extended and lead to a third (and fourth, and fifth bailout, each with every more draconian terms until finally Greece does default), or will collapse at which point the Troika will indeed have the right to seize the Greek gold reserves.

What makes this case particularly curious, however, is that it won’t be the first time Greece will have “lost” its gold. In The Tower of Basel, citing the BIS archive from Febriary 9, 1931, Adam LeBor writes:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Bad Bank” Mania Spreads in Europe

April 5, 2015

“Bad Bank” Mania Spreads in Europe

One thing that the world is not in short supply of these days is bad banks. They are everywhere, it seems. But there are bad banks, and there are Bad Banks. This article is about the latter, the officially dubbed “Bad Banks” launched by governments and central banks to conceal the rising tide of triple-F toxic junk (derivatives, securitized debt, non-performing loans…) that threatens to engulf the world’s financial system.

As Bad Banks go, few are as bad as Spain’s SAREB, the public-private company responsible for managing assets transferred from the four nationalized financial institutions BFA-Bankia, Catalunya Banc, NGC Banco-Banco Gallego, and Banco de Valencia.

In theory, SAREB was never meant to exist: “There will be no Bad Bank in Spain, and we will establish procedures that will not be burdensome for taxpayers.” Those were the famous words of Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy during the first few months of 2012. The promise was made on numerous occasions, and not just by Rajoy but also by his Minister of Economy (and former Lehman advisor) Luis de Guindos.

But in politics, promises are not made to last; they are there to be broken. By December of that same year, Sareb was born and Spanish taxpayers were left holding the tab for the biggest bank bailout in Spanish history.

Fast forward to today. Sareb is hemorrhaging. In 2014 the firm’s total losses were €585 million, more than double the amount registered in 2013, its first full year of operations (€260.53 million). It’s a stark contrast from the rosy picture painted by KPMG, the firm hired by the government to draw up Sareb’s original business plan. According to KPMG, investor returns, based on “conservative estimates,” would be in the order of around 15%!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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